Gold is still trading inside a bearish structure after the strong breakdown from the previous consolidation area. The current H4 chart shows that sellers are maintaining control below the descending trendline, while price is reacting near the short-term liquidity area around 4,021 – 4,092.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains highly sensitive to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and upcoming U.S. inflation-related data. When the market keeps pricing in a cautious Federal Reserve outlook, gold can stay under pressure, especially after a strong bearish technical move.
At the moment, the fundamental background does not strongly support aggressive buying. Unless there is a clear shift in risk sentiment or weaker U.S. data, the upside recovery may still be limited and sellers may continue to defend the higher supply zones.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has already broken below several short-term structures and created bearish displacement on the H4 chart. The previous CHoCH areas have failed to support price, showing that the market has shifted into a lower-high and lower-low structure.
The descending trendline is still pressing from above, while price is trading below the SMA 200, confirming that the broader momentum remains weak. The current Doji candle near the liquidity zone shows hesitation, but not yet a strong bullish reversal.
The nearest upper reaction area is the liquidity zone around 4,161 – 4,182, which also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. If price pulls back into this area and fails to break higher, it may become a clean sell continuation zone.
Above that, the FVG area around 4,286 – 4,294 remains a stronger supply zone. As long as gold stays below this region, the bearish scenario remains the main view.
On the downside, the market is likely watching the day low around 4,024 and the lower liquidity zone near 4,021. If this zone breaks clearly, price may continue expanding toward the Fibonacci extension target around 3,833 – 3,817.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price area: 4,082
Nearest support / liquidity: 4,024 – 4,021
Short-term pullback zone: 4,161 – 4,182
Sell reaction zone: 4,161 – 4,182
Major FVG / supply zone: 4,286 – 4,294
Buyside liquidity: 4,363
Main bearish target: 3,833 – 3,817
Invalidation area: Above 4,294
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario – Priority View
If gold recovers into the 4,161 – 4,182 zone and shows rejection, I will watch for a bearish continuation setup.
Sell Zone: 4,161 – 4,182
Entry Condition: Wait for bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from the liquidity zone.
Stop Loss: Above 4,182 or above the nearest swing high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,024 – 4,021
TP2: 3,833
TP3: 3,817 if bearish momentum expands.
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks directly below 4,021 with strong momentum, sellers may continue to control the market.
Sell Condition: Wait for a clean H4 break below 4,021, then watch for a retest and rejection from the broken support.
Target: 3,833 – 3,817
Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
A buy setup is not the main view today. However, if gold sweeps the 4,021 liquidity area and quickly recovers back above 4,024, a short-term corrective bounce may appear.
Buy Zone: 4,024 – 4,021
Entry Condition: Only consider buying if there is a clear liquidity sweep, bullish rejection candle, and lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH.
Take Profit: 4,161 – 4,182
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,021, the buy idea is invalid.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My main view for gold today is still bearish. The chart shows clear selling pressure, price remains below the descending trendline, and the major FVG zones above have not been filled yet.
I prefer looking for sell setups after pullbacks rather than buying too early. The 4,161 – 4,182 zone is the key area for sellers to defend. If gold fails there, the next downside target may be the 3,833 – 3,817 Fibonacci extension zone.
Overall, gold is still weak unless buyers can reclaim the higher FVG zone around 4,286 – 4,294.
Do you think gold will retest 4,161 – 4,182 before continuing lower, or will sellers break 4,021 directly today?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.