Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long

XAU/USD: Buy on Price Retracement in Discount Area

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After the previous strong decline, gold has held firm at the channel bottom demand area and showed a clear upward reaction. Currently, the price is in a technical recovery phase, simultaneously returning to test the liquidity areas above.

On the macro side, market sentiment still leans towards the expectation that the Fed will maintain a softer stance, providing support for gold during downward adjustments.

Technical Structure (M30–H1)

The price is moving within a short-term upward channel

The 4,278 – 4,280 area plays an important demand role (structure bottom)

After forming a Higher Low, the price bounced up and maintained the upward structure

The areas above are liquidity + supply, need to observe price reactions

Trading Plan – MMF Style

Main Scenario – BUY according to structure

Priority BUY area: 4,300 – 4,304

Condition: price retraces to demand area, does not break the previous bottom

Targets:

TP1: 4,324

TP2: 4,353

TP3: 4,363 (liquidity above)

Alternative Scenario

If the price does not retrace deeply but breaks and holds above 4,324, wait for a retest to BUY following the trend.

Invalidation Area

If the price breaks strongly below 4,278, the short-term upward structure is invalidated

In that case: stay out, wait for new structure confirmation

MMF Perspective

The short-term trend supports BUY when the price retraces to the discount area.

Do not chase orders in the premium area – patiently wait for the price to reach demand, trade according to structure instead of emotions.

Daily Bias: Bullish above 4,278 – Priority to BUY pullback.

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