After the previous strong decline, gold is currently holding steady above the H4 trendline and shifting to a balanced state on the H2 frame, fluctuating in the 5000–5050 range. This is a typical accumulation phase as the market absorbs previous selling pressure and awaits a new catalyst to expand the range.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline and the short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline and the short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
Trade active
GOLD UPDATE 17/03 | SELL REACTION FROM H2 TRENDLINE
The price followed the bias when it touched the H2 trendline + Fibo area (0.5 – 0.618) → clear downward reaction, continuing to confirm the short-term bearish structure. After the rejection, gold returned to retest the support area below (~496x – 498x) and is showing signs of price holding, indicating the market is still in a compressed sideways state within the range.
Currently, the price is caught between:
Supply above (trendline + Fibo)
Support below (liquidity area 496x – 498x)
→ This is a balanced area, where the cash flow is waiting for a breakout to determine the next direction.
Main scenario:
• Unable to break the 5050+ area → continue to be pushed down, retest 496x → deeper could go to 4900
Secondary scenario:
• Break above the H2 trendline area → could recover to 5080 – 5100 (FVG + higher fibo)
→ Current bias: SELL within the range, prioritize selling the upper area
🚨 The market is compressing – the longer it compresses, the stronger the breakout
This is the decisive area to see if gold breaks the range or continues the medium-term downtrend.
👉 Follow to update PLAN 18/03:
Will gold break down to confirm the downtrend or is it just a fakeout before reversing?
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.