XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But The Rising Channel Is Still Holding
Gold is pulling back, but the structure is not broken yet.
After price dropped close to the 4,100 area, buyers started to react near the lower boundary of the rising channel. Gold is now trading around 4,125, just above the key buy zone around 4,112.
This is an important moment on the H1 chart. The market is testing whether the recent decline is only a correction inside the bullish channel, or the beginning of a deeper breakdown.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold came under pressure in early Asian trading as geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran continued to create uncertainty across the market.
At the same time, weaker U.S. NFP data has reduced expectations for a more aggressive Fed path. This can limit downside pressure on gold, because softer labour data often supports the idea of easier policy expectations.
For now, the fundamental background is mixed. Geopolitical risk can support gold, while short-term USD strength can pressure price. That is why the technical reaction around the current buy zone becomes very important.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold is still moving inside a rising channel. Price has created higher lows from the late-June base, which means the short-term recovery structure remains active.
The current buy zone around 4,112 is the most important area on the chart. This zone is sitting near the lower channel boundary, where buyers need to defend the structure.
If gold holds above 4,112 and forms a bullish reaction, price may continue higher toward 4,151 first. Above that, the next attention area is around 4,209, where the market may test stronger liquidity and possible resistance.
The major upside resistance remains around 4,276. If buyers can push price through 4,209, the path toward 4,276 becomes more interesting.
However, if gold breaks below 4,112 and loses the lower channel, the bullish structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may return toward the 4,100 area or lower support zones.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,125
Main buy zone: 4,112
Lower channel support: 4,112 – 4,120
Short-term resistance: 4,151
Attention zone: 4,209
Strong resistance: 4,276
Bullish continuation target: 4,209
Main upside target: 4,276
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,112
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Channel Continuation View
If gold holds above the 4,112 buy zone, I will watch for bullish continuation inside the rising channel.
Buy Zone: 4,112 – 4,120
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bullish reaction from channel support
SL: Below 4,112 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,151
TP2: 4,209
TP3: 4,276 if momentum continues
Breakout Buy Scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,151, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next liquidity area.
Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,151, followed by retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,209 – 4,276
Sell Scenario – Only If Channel Support Fails
Sell is not the priority while gold holds above the buy zone. However, if price breaks below 4,112, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Zone: Below 4,112 after confirmation
Entry: Clean breakdown, bearish retest, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,080
TP3: Lower support if selling pressure expands
Invalidation: If price quickly reclaims 4,112 – 4,120, the sell idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is cautious bullish while price stays inside the rising channel.
The pullback near 4,100 created pressure, but buyers are still defending the lower channel area. This means the market has not confirmed a bearish breakdown yet.
The key level for today is 4,112. If this zone holds, gold may continue toward 4,151 and possibly 4,209. If 4,112 fails, the structure changes and sellers may regain short-term control.
For now, gold is at a quiet but important decision point.
Do you think buyers will defend 4,112 and push gold toward 4,209, or will the rising channel break today?
Gold is pulling back, but the structure is not broken yet.
After price dropped close to the 4,100 area, buyers started to react near the lower boundary of the rising channel. Gold is now trading around 4,125, just above the key buy zone around 4,112.
This is an important moment on the H1 chart. The market is testing whether the recent decline is only a correction inside the bullish channel, or the beginning of a deeper breakdown.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold came under pressure in early Asian trading as geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran continued to create uncertainty across the market.
At the same time, weaker U.S. NFP data has reduced expectations for a more aggressive Fed path. This can limit downside pressure on gold, because softer labour data often supports the idea of easier policy expectations.
For now, the fundamental background is mixed. Geopolitical risk can support gold, while short-term USD strength can pressure price. That is why the technical reaction around the current buy zone becomes very important.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold is still moving inside a rising channel. Price has created higher lows from the late-June base, which means the short-term recovery structure remains active.
The current buy zone around 4,112 is the most important area on the chart. This zone is sitting near the lower channel boundary, where buyers need to defend the structure.
If gold holds above 4,112 and forms a bullish reaction, price may continue higher toward 4,151 first. Above that, the next attention area is around 4,209, where the market may test stronger liquidity and possible resistance.
The major upside resistance remains around 4,276. If buyers can push price through 4,209, the path toward 4,276 becomes more interesting.
However, if gold breaks below 4,112 and loses the lower channel, the bullish structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may return toward the 4,100 area or lower support zones.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,125
Main buy zone: 4,112
Lower channel support: 4,112 – 4,120
Short-term resistance: 4,151
Attention zone: 4,209
Strong resistance: 4,276
Bullish continuation target: 4,209
Main upside target: 4,276
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,112
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Channel Continuation View
If gold holds above the 4,112 buy zone, I will watch for bullish continuation inside the rising channel.
Buy Zone: 4,112 – 4,120
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bullish reaction from channel support
SL: Below 4,112 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,151
TP2: 4,209
TP3: 4,276 if momentum continues
Breakout Buy Scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,151, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next liquidity area.
Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,151, followed by retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,209 – 4,276
Sell Scenario – Only If Channel Support Fails
Sell is not the priority while gold holds above the buy zone. However, if price breaks below 4,112, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Zone: Below 4,112 after confirmation
Entry: Clean breakdown, bearish retest, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,080
TP3: Lower support if selling pressure expands
Invalidation: If price quickly reclaims 4,112 – 4,120, the sell idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is cautious bullish while price stays inside the rising channel.
The pullback near 4,100 created pressure, but buyers are still defending the lower channel area. This means the market has not confirmed a bearish breakdown yet.
The key level for today is 4,112. If this zone holds, gold may continue toward 4,151 and possibly 4,209. If 4,112 fails, the structure changes and sellers may regain short-term control.
For now, gold is at a quiet but important decision point.
Do you think buyers will defend 4,112 and push gold toward 4,209, or will the rising channel break today?
Trade active
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.