Gold remains trapped inside a strong bearish channel after weeks of persistent selling pressure. While price has started to stabilize and form a short-term consolidation, the broader market structure remains unchanged. The current pause appears to be a liquidity-building phase rather than evidence of a sustainable bottom.
Today's attention shifts toward the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Final GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. These releases are expected to generate short-term volatility, but unless they significantly weaken expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, they are unlikely to reverse the dominant bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to favor the U.S. dollar. Sticky inflation, resilient economic data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy continue to support USD strength. Despite gold already experiencing a deep correction, capital has yet to rotate back into safe-haven assets, suggesting investors still prefer dollar-denominated positions over defensive commodities.
Technically, gold remains inside a well-defined descending channel. The recent consolidation reflects slowing downside momentum rather than genuine accumulation. The first recovery zone is located around the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci confluence. If sellers successfully defend this resistance cluster, the broader bearish structure is likely to remain intact.
Failure to reclaim this resistance would reinforce the view that the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce before another leg lower toward the liquidity zones below 395x.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues consolidating ahead of today's major U.S. economic releases.
A recovery into the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci resistance remains the preferred selling opportunity.
As long as price fails to reclaim this resistance cluster, the market is expected to continue rotating toward 395x, with further downside potentially extending into the 390x region.
Only a decisive break above the current resistance structure would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.
MARKET VIEW
The market is not waiting for good news to buy gold—it is waiting for a reason to leave the U.S. dollar.
Until inflation expectations soften and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, capital flows are likely to remain concentrated in USD. That keeps the broader macro backdrop unfavorable for gold, making corrective rallies opportunities to trade with the prevailing trend rather than signals of a confirmed bottom.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation within the broader downtrend.
Key Focus: Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 400x–404x.
US Session Theme: Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims could increase volatility, but USD remains the dominant macro driver.
LucasGrayTrading
Today's attention shifts toward the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Final GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. These releases are expected to generate short-term volatility, but unless they significantly weaken expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, they are unlikely to reverse the dominant bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to favor the U.S. dollar. Sticky inflation, resilient economic data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy continue to support USD strength. Despite gold already experiencing a deep correction, capital has yet to rotate back into safe-haven assets, suggesting investors still prefer dollar-denominated positions over defensive commodities.
Technically, gold remains inside a well-defined descending channel. The recent consolidation reflects slowing downside momentum rather than genuine accumulation. The first recovery zone is located around the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci confluence. If sellers successfully defend this resistance cluster, the broader bearish structure is likely to remain intact.
Failure to reclaim this resistance would reinforce the view that the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce before another leg lower toward the liquidity zones below 395x.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues consolidating ahead of today's major U.S. economic releases.
A recovery into the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci resistance remains the preferred selling opportunity.
As long as price fails to reclaim this resistance cluster, the market is expected to continue rotating toward 395x, with further downside potentially extending into the 390x region.
Only a decisive break above the current resistance structure would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.
MARKET VIEW
The market is not waiting for good news to buy gold—it is waiting for a reason to leave the U.S. dollar.
Until inflation expectations soften and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, capital flows are likely to remain concentrated in USD. That keeps the broader macro backdrop unfavorable for gold, making corrective rallies opportunities to trade with the prevailing trend rather than signals of a confirmed bottom.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation within the broader downtrend.
Key Focus: Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 400x–404x.
US Session Theme: Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims could increase volatility, but USD remains the dominant macro driver.
LucasGrayTrading
Trade active
GOLD H2 25/06 UPDATE: BEARISH BIAS REMAINS INTACTGold respected the original bearish scenario perfectly. Price rejected the Demand + 0.382 Fibonacci resistance and declined nearly 200 pips, confirming that the recent recovery was driven more by improving market sentiment than any meaningful shift in macro fundamentals.
The broader outlook remains unchanged. Capital continues favoring the U.S. dollar, while gold is still trading inside a well-defined bearish structure.
The market is now attempting another recovery toward the 404x Fibonacci + descending trendline resistance. As long as this confluence continues to hold, the preferred scenario remains selling into strength.
Current Bias: Bearish.
Key Resistance: 404x (Fibonacci + Trendline).
Next Target: 399x liquidity zone, in line with the original trading plan.
LucasGrayTrading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.