NFP mixed, Fed hawkish – 4,800 false signal?

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📰 Context
NFP came mixed. Fed speakers pushed back on early cuts. Real yields still a headwind. But physical demand and central banks remain supportive.

📊 H4 Structure

Trendline still intact (rising from early May)

Price compressed between trendline support (~4,700-4,710) and zone resistance (4,763-4,800)

No clear CHOCH yet – still within bullish structure, but losing steam

🔑 Key Levels for Next Week

🟢 Support: 4,656 → 4,625
🟡 Pivot zone: 4,700-4,710 (trendline)
🔴 Resistance: 4,763 → 4,800 → 4,826

⚡️ IF–THEN Scenarios

✅ IF holds above trendline (4,700) + reclaims 4,725
→ grind toward 4,763 → 4,800

❌ IF loses 4,700 + breaks 4,656
→ shift structure → 4,625 → 4,600

🧠 My bias

For me, this still looks like accumulation before another leg up – but only if support holds. I'm not interested in buying the middle of this range. I'd rather wait for a sweep of 4,700 or a clean reclaim of 4,739.

❓ What's your bias for next week?

👇 Drop your level or scenario

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