Gold is attempting a short-term recovery after a sharp decline from 4,140 toward 3,980.
On the M30 chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,017, with buyers defending the 3,990-3,995 support area. However, the broader bearish structure remains intact as price approaches the descending trendline near 4,020.
My preferred scenario is a short-term pullback toward 4,005-4,010 before a potential recovery toward 4,034 and 4,090.
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE
1. Volume Profile - Buyers Rebuild Value
Volume Profile shows that market acceptance has shifted toward lower prices following the recent selloff.
The latest distribution highlights significant trading activity around 3,990-4,010, suggesting that buyers are rebuilding short-term value.
Gold is now challenging the upper value area near 4,015-4,020.
A confirmed breakout above 4,034 could open the way toward the major value resistance at 4,085-4,095.
2. Trendline - Breakout or Rejection
The descending trendline from 4,140 continues to restrict bullish recovery attempts.
Gold has rebounded from 3,980 and is now testing this resistance near 4,020.
A confirmed breakout and successful retest would strengthen the recovery toward 4,034.
However, rejection from the trendline could push price back toward 4,008 and 3,995.
3. ICT - FVG and Liquidity Structure
The recent recovery followed a liquidity reaction near 3,980, allowing buyers to reclaim the psychological 4,000 level.
The FVG around 4,005-4,010 now represents an important short-term support area.
Holding this zone and confirming a bullish Market Structure Shift could support continuation toward 4,034.
However, losing 3,995 would weaken the recovery structure and expose lower liquidity near 3,980.
IMPORTANT PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,015-4,020
FVG support: 4,005-4,010
Major lower support: 3,990-3,995
Downside liquidity: 3,975-3,980
Breakout confirmation: 4,030-4,034
Major value resistance: 4,085-4,095
Higher buy-side liquidity: 4,140
TRADING SCENARIOS
Primary Scenario - Buy After FVG Retest
Entry: 4,005-4,010 after bullish confirmation.
Stop Loss: Below the confirmed rejection low.
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 4,030-4,034
TP3: 4,085-4,095
Alternative Scenario - Buy After Trendline Breakout
Entry: After a confirmed breakout and successful retest above 4,020.
Stop Loss: Below the confirmed retest low.
TP1: 4,034
TP2: 4,085-4,095
TP3: 4,140
Bearish Scenario - Trendline Rejection
Entry: 4,015-4,020 after confirmed bearish rejection.
Stop Loss: Above the confirmed rejection high.
TP1: 4,008
TP2: 3,990-3,995
TP3: 3,975-3,980
FINAL VIEW
Gold is testing an important decision area near 4,020, where the descending trendline meets the current recovery structure.
Volume Profile suggests buyers are rebuilding value above 4,000, while ICT highlights the 4,005-4,010 FVG as immediate support.
My trading map:
Hold 4,005-4,010: Short-term recovery remains possible.
Break above 4,020: Bullish momentum improves.
Reclaim 4,034: Recovery toward 4,090 becomes possible.
Reject 4,020: Potential pullback toward 4,008.
Lose 3,995: Downside risk increases toward 3,980.
My preferred outlook is a controlled pullback toward the FVG before a potential recovery toward 4,034 and 4,090. However, the broader trend remains bearish until higher resistance is reclaimed.
Will gold break the descending trendline and recover toward 4,090, or will sellers defend 4,020 and push price below 4,000?
Which scenario are you watching?
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⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+MLnZundgRZY2MTY9
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+MLnZundgRZY2MTY9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.