XAUUSD – Gold Is Recovering, But Sellers May Defend Higher
Yesterday’s view followed the market structure well as gold continued lower before finding a reaction from the lower zone.
Today, gold is trying to recover from the recent low and is now trading around 4,029. The short-term structure has improved after price created a strong bounce and moved back above the nearby FVG area.
However, this is still a recovery move inside a broader bearish context. The key question now is simple: can buyers continue toward 4,070 – 4,080, or will sellers defend that area again?
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains sensitive to USD movement, yields, and market sentiment. After the recent selloff, the current rebound may be supported by short-term profit-taking and technical buying from lower levels.
For today, price reaction around resistance is more important than prediction.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a short-term bullish reaction after sweeping the lower area. Price also formed a market structure shift around 4,020, showing that buyers are trying to take short-term control.
The FVG zone around 4,010 – 4,022 is now acting as intraday support. As long as gold holds above this area, the recovery can continue toward the upper resistance zone.
The main resistance sits around 4,070 – 4,080. This is the area where sellers may defend again. If price reaches this zone and rejects, the market may create another pullback.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,029
Intraday support: 4,010 – 4,022
MSS area: Around 4,020
Lower FVG support: 3,970 – 3,985
Recovery resistance: 4,050
Sellers may defend: 4,070 – 4,080
Invalidation for short-term recovery: Below 4,010
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Short-Term Recovery
Buy Zone: 4,010 – 4,022
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,010
TP1: 4,050
TP2: 4,070 – 4,080
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,070 – 4,080
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,050
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 4,010
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,010, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Condition: Clean break and retest below 4,010
Target: 3,970 – 3,985
MY VIEW ON GOLD
Gold is recovering today, but I do not want to chase the move too late.
The cleaner plan is to watch how price reacts around 4,010 – 4,022 for support, and 4,070 – 4,080 for resistance. If buyers defend the FVG, gold may continue higher. But if price reaches the upper zone and sellers reject it, the pullback setup becomes more attractive.
For now, gold is bouncing — but 4,070 – 4,080 will decide whether this recovery can continue.
Do you think gold will reach 4,080 today, or will sellers return before that zone?
Yesterday’s view followed the market structure well as gold continued lower before finding a reaction from the lower zone.
Today, gold is trying to recover from the recent low and is now trading around 4,029. The short-term structure has improved after price created a strong bounce and moved back above the nearby FVG area.
However, this is still a recovery move inside a broader bearish context. The key question now is simple: can buyers continue toward 4,070 – 4,080, or will sellers defend that area again?
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains sensitive to USD movement, yields, and market sentiment. After the recent selloff, the current rebound may be supported by short-term profit-taking and technical buying from lower levels.
For today, price reaction around resistance is more important than prediction.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a short-term bullish reaction after sweeping the lower area. Price also formed a market structure shift around 4,020, showing that buyers are trying to take short-term control.
The FVG zone around 4,010 – 4,022 is now acting as intraday support. As long as gold holds above this area, the recovery can continue toward the upper resistance zone.
The main resistance sits around 4,070 – 4,080. This is the area where sellers may defend again. If price reaches this zone and rejects, the market may create another pullback.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price: 4,029
Intraday support: 4,010 – 4,022
MSS area: Around 4,020
Lower FVG support: 3,970 – 3,985
Recovery resistance: 4,050
Sellers may defend: 4,070 – 4,080
Invalidation for short-term recovery: Below 4,010
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Short-Term Recovery
Buy Zone: 4,010 – 4,022
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,010
TP1: 4,050
TP2: 4,070 – 4,080
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,070 – 4,080
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,050
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 4,010
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,010, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Sell Condition: Clean break and retest below 4,010
Target: 3,970 – 3,985
MY VIEW ON GOLD
Gold is recovering today, but I do not want to chase the move too late.
The cleaner plan is to watch how price reacts around 4,010 – 4,022 for support, and 4,070 – 4,080 for resistance. If buyers defend the FVG, gold may continue higher. But if price reaches the upper zone and sellers reject it, the pullback setup becomes more attractive.
For now, gold is bouncing — but 4,070 – 4,080 will decide whether this recovery can continue.
Do you think gold will reach 4,080 today, or will sellers return before that zone?
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.