From Kelly’s view, gold is trying to build a bullish recovery after holding above the 3,976 strong support. Price is currently trading around 4,008, while the short-term structure is beginning to form higher lows from the recent selloff.
The key idea is simple: if buyers continue to defend the 3,990–4,000 liquidity zone, gold may recover toward 4,020, 4,034, and then challenge the stronger resistance areas around 4,060 and 4,085–4,092.
⟡ Market structure
Gold has completed a strong bearish impulse from the 4,140 area into the 3,976 support, but price is now attempting to stabilize above this major low.
The immediate structure shows a potential recovery from the liquidity zone around 3,990–4,000.
The first confirmation level is 4,019–4,020. Above this level, the next resistance sits around 4,033–4,034.
If buyers can reclaim both levels, the recovery may extend toward the important 4,060–4,067 resistance zone.
The larger bullish target is the 4,085–4,092 swing resistance, where the descending trendline and upper sell zone overlap.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,005–4,010
◌ Main buy zone: 3,990–4,000
◌ Strong support: 3,976
◌ First resistance: 4,019–4,020
◌ Second resistance: 4,033–4,034
◌ Strong resistance: 4,060–4,067
◌ First target: 4,034
◌ Second target: 4,060–4,067
◌ Main target: 4,085–4,092
◌ Invalidation: Below 3,976
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bullish recovery may push price from the liquidity zone toward 4,033–4,034.
Wave (2): A corrective pullback could retest approximately 4,015–4,020.
Wave (3): If buyers defend that retracement, the stronger bullish expansion may target the 4,060–4,067 resistance zone.
Wave (4): Gold could then form another controlled correction toward 4,030–4,035.
Wave (5): The final bullish recovery leg may extend toward the 4,085–4,092 swing resistance area.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: 3,990–4,000 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,976
Take Profit 1: 4,033–4,034
Take Profit 2: 4,060–4,067
Take Profit 3: 4,085–4,092
The cleaner plan is to wait for buyers to confirm support around the liquidity zone rather than chase price directly into resistance.
A break above 4,020, followed by acceptance above 4,034, would strengthen the bullish recovery scenario. If momentum continues, 4,060 becomes the next major test before the larger 4,085–4,092 target.
Alternative scenario:
If gold pulls back deeper but continues to hold above 3,976, the bullish recovery structure may remain valid and buyers could attempt another move higher from the lower support area.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish scenario would weaken if price loses the 3,990–4,000 liquidity zone without a meaningful reaction.
A sustained break below 3,976 would invalidate the preferred bullish recovery structure and suggest that sellers may continue the broader downside move.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view favors a bullish recovery while gold holds above 3,976, with 3,990–4,000 acting as the key support zone.
The first confirmation levels are 4,020 and 4,034. If buyers reclaim these areas, the recovery could extend toward 4,060–4,067, followed by the larger 4,085–4,092 Wave (5) target.
Do you think buyers will defend the 3,990–4,000 liquidity zone, or will gold retest 3,976 before the next recovery?
Trade active
Gold continues to trade around the buy zone near 3,990–4,000 and has reacted higher in line with the previous bullish plan. From Kelly’s view, buyers are still defending this area, keeping the recovery scenario active.
However, price remains sideways inside a tight consolidation range and has not shown a strong breakout yet. The 4,030–4,035 resistance area is the next level to watch. A clear break above this zone would give stronger confirmation for further upside toward the higher resistance zones.
Note
Gold is currently moving higher in the expected Wave 4 correction, with price approaching the 4,060–4,070 resistance / sell zone. From Kelly’s view, this rebound remains corrective for now and has not yet confirmed a full bullish reversal.
The key is to wait for a clear rejection or bearish confirmation around the current resistance area. If sellers regain control, Gold could begin Wave 5 and resume the broader downside structure, with lower support around 4,034 and potentially deeper levels below.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.