XAUUSD: Weak Bounce, Sellers Still Control
Market Context
Gold is attracting some buyers in the Asian session, but the rebound still looks limited. The US Dollar has paused after a two-day recovery, while traders are waiting for the US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension and expectations that the Fed may keep a restrictive policy tone continue to support the USD. This can limit upside momentum for gold, even if price creates a short-term bounce.
The main story is simple: gold is bouncing, but the structure is still weak. Buyers need more than one reaction candle to prove control.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,015 after clearing the weak low and rebounding slightly. The short-term move shows a reaction from the lower area, but the broader structure still leans bearish.
The nearest support is around 3,959 - 3,990. If this area holds, gold may continue a technical rebound toward the FVG rebalance zone around 4,060 - 4,080.
Above that, the 4,100 - 4,120 area is the internal liquidity zone. This is where sellers may start reacting again if the rebound loses momentum.
The stronger resistance remains higher at the Main Sell POI and Premium Supply area around 4,160 - 4,200. As long as price stays below this zone, the recovery should still be treated as corrective.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,015
Near Support: 3,959 - 3,990
FVG Rebalance Zone: 4,060 - 4,080
Internal Liquidity: 4,100 - 4,120
Main Sell POI: 4,160 - 4,180
Premium Supply: 4,180 - 4,200
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,120
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,959
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Technical Rebound
Entry: Above 4,020 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,990
TP1: 4,060
TP2: 4,080
TP3: 4,100
Conditions: Price must hold above the weak low area, reclaim 4,020 with strength, and form a clear bullish reaction on the lower timeframe. This is only a corrective rebound setup, not a full trend reversal.
Sell Scenario: Rejection From FVG
Entry: 4,060 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,100
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 3,990
TP3: 3,959
Conditions: Price rebounds into the FVG rebalance zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Internal Liquidity
Entry: 4,100 - 4,120 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,140
TP1: 4,080
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 3,990
Conditions: Price sweeps into internal liquidity but cannot hold above 4,120. Strong rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the short-term bearish structure.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,959 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 3,990
TP1: 3,930
TP2: 3,900
TP3: 3,880
Conditions: Price loses the lower support zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the small rebound has failed and gold may extend toward deeper demand.
Overall Bias
Gold is showing a short-term bounce, but the main structure remains weak. The rebound can continue toward 4,060 - 4,080, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,100 - 4,120 to shift the tone.
If price rejects from the FVG or internal liquidity zone, sellers may push gold back toward 3,990 and 3,959. A break below 3,959 would open the door for a deeper downside move.
Best approach: wait for confirmation. Do not chase the bounce while gold remains below the main sell zones.
Will gold reclaim 4,120, or will sellers use this bounce to continue the decline?
Market Context
Gold is attracting some buyers in the Asian session, but the rebound still looks limited. The US Dollar has paused after a two-day recovery, while traders are waiting for the US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension and expectations that the Fed may keep a restrictive policy tone continue to support the USD. This can limit upside momentum for gold, even if price creates a short-term bounce.
The main story is simple: gold is bouncing, but the structure is still weak. Buyers need more than one reaction candle to prove control.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,015 after clearing the weak low and rebounding slightly. The short-term move shows a reaction from the lower area, but the broader structure still leans bearish.
The nearest support is around 3,959 - 3,990. If this area holds, gold may continue a technical rebound toward the FVG rebalance zone around 4,060 - 4,080.
Above that, the 4,100 - 4,120 area is the internal liquidity zone. This is where sellers may start reacting again if the rebound loses momentum.
The stronger resistance remains higher at the Main Sell POI and Premium Supply area around 4,160 - 4,200. As long as price stays below this zone, the recovery should still be treated as corrective.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,015
Near Support: 3,959 - 3,990
FVG Rebalance Zone: 4,060 - 4,080
Internal Liquidity: 4,100 - 4,120
Main Sell POI: 4,160 - 4,180
Premium Supply: 4,180 - 4,200
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,120
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,959
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Technical Rebound
Entry: Above 4,020 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,990
TP1: 4,060
TP2: 4,080
TP3: 4,100
Conditions: Price must hold above the weak low area, reclaim 4,020 with strength, and form a clear bullish reaction on the lower timeframe. This is only a corrective rebound setup, not a full trend reversal.
Sell Scenario: Rejection From FVG
Entry: 4,060 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,100
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 3,990
TP3: 3,959
Conditions: Price rebounds into the FVG rebalance zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Internal Liquidity
Entry: 4,100 - 4,120 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,140
TP1: 4,080
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 3,990
Conditions: Price sweeps into internal liquidity but cannot hold above 4,120. Strong rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the short-term bearish structure.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,959 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 3,990
TP1: 3,930
TP2: 3,900
TP3: 3,880
Conditions: Price loses the lower support zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the small rebound has failed and gold may extend toward deeper demand.
Overall Bias
Gold is showing a short-term bounce, but the main structure remains weak. The rebound can continue toward 4,060 - 4,080, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,100 - 4,120 to shift the tone.
If price rejects from the FVG or internal liquidity zone, sellers may push gold back toward 3,990 and 3,959. A break below 3,959 would open the door for a deeper downside move.
Best approach: wait for confirmation. Do not chase the bounce while gold remains below the main sell zones.
Will gold reclaim 4,120, or will sellers use this bounce to continue the decline?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.