Current Market State: Wait and See (Stay Sidelined)
If you look at the daily chart, Gold has cleanly taken out the recent June lows 4023 (the xxx line) and is sitting around $4,062.89.
By standard chart rules, Gold is heavily overdue for a retracement (a temporary bounce up). It needs to go up to retest our Daily POI box (~$4,135–$4,200) before it can make its next big move down.
But here is why we CANNOT just buy right now:
Monday Lower Timeframe Chop: On the smaller timeframes (like the 15-minute or 1-hour), the price action is incredibly messy and choppy. There is no clear volume or direction. Buying here is just gambling and guessing the bottom.
Big News is Coming: This week has massive macroeconomic events dropping early because of the Friday market holiday. The market is nervous and waiting for this data:
Wednesday: Fed Chair Warsh speaks. What he says about inflation and interest rates will directly shock Gold.
Thursday: We get the big NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and Unemployment Rate data.
🌍 Geopolitical Headwinds: : The Middle East Ceasefire Fractures
Over the weekend, the tentative US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) suffered a major fracture.
The Conflict: Iran struck a Singapore-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian radar and missile storage sites. Iran subsequently counter-struck US Gulf positions.
The Direct Result: This immediate disruption to global shipping routes caused a sharp spike in crude oil prices which can lead to gold going down.
The Plan:
Do not force any trades during this choppy Monday. Let the market clear out the noise. We are staying on the sidelines with a clear trigger in mind:
Wait for Displacement: We want to see a sudden, aggressive institutional push (displacement) that clearly breaks the current choppy range and shows us the real direction.
OR
15-Minute Confirmation: We will only look for entries after a clean MSS (Market Structure Shift) or BOS (Break of Structure) prints on the 15-minute lower timeframe chart.
If you look at the daily chart, Gold has cleanly taken out the recent June lows 4023 (the xxx line) and is sitting around $4,062.89.
By standard chart rules, Gold is heavily overdue for a retracement (a temporary bounce up). It needs to go up to retest our Daily POI box (~$4,135–$4,200) before it can make its next big move down.
But here is why we CANNOT just buy right now:
Monday Lower Timeframe Chop: On the smaller timeframes (like the 15-minute or 1-hour), the price action is incredibly messy and choppy. There is no clear volume or direction. Buying here is just gambling and guessing the bottom.
Big News is Coming: This week has massive macroeconomic events dropping early because of the Friday market holiday. The market is nervous and waiting for this data:
Wednesday: Fed Chair Warsh speaks. What he says about inflation and interest rates will directly shock Gold.
Thursday: We get the big NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and Unemployment Rate data.
🌍 Geopolitical Headwinds: : The Middle East Ceasefire Fractures
Over the weekend, the tentative US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) suffered a major fracture.
The Conflict: Iran struck a Singapore-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian radar and missile storage sites. Iran subsequently counter-struck US Gulf positions.
The Direct Result: This immediate disruption to global shipping routes caused a sharp spike in crude oil prices which can lead to gold going down.
The Plan:
Do not force any trades during this choppy Monday. Let the market clear out the noise. We are staying on the sidelines with a clear trigger in mind:
Wait for Displacement: We want to see a sudden, aggressive institutional push (displacement) that clearly breaks the current choppy range and shows us the real direction.
OR
15-Minute Confirmation: We will only look for entries after a clean MSS (Market Structure Shift) or BOS (Break of Structure) prints on the 15-minute lower timeframe chart.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.