Gold is showing weakness again after failing to hold the recovery structure above the short-term resistance area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that price may be developing a bearish wave 5 move, with sellers still active below the 4,035–4,040 sell zone.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favors downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015–4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960–3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035–4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,035–4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,026: current reaction area
◌ 4,015–4,025: support area under pressure
◌ 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
◌ 3,960–3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035–4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960–3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035–4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035–4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035–4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
Share your view below.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favors downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015–4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960–3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035–4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,035–4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,026: current reaction area
◌ 4,015–4,025: support area under pressure
◌ 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
◌ 3,960–3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035–4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960–3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035–4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035–4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035–4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
Share your view below.
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Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.