Gold's powerful recovery is losing momentum. After reaching the 4,145 region, price has shifted into a descending channel, with sellers gradually pushing the market toward an important volume and support area.
The next reaction around 4,085 could determine whether this is simply a temporary correction or the beginning of another bearish expansion.
Market Structure — Sellers Regain Control
Following the recent bullish rally, XAUUSD failed to maintain its upward momentum near the 4,145 region.
Price subsequently developed a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
Gold is now trading around 4,045.385, close to the Volume Profile POC, while the 4,038.090 level represents another important structural reference.
The short-term structure currently favors sellers, although a corrective bounce remains possible.
Liquidity & Key Areas
Three important levels deserve attention:
4,085.178: Key resistance and potential bearish rejection area.
4,045.385: Volume Profile POC, where price is currently trading.
4,038.090: Important support and structural decision level.
3,960–3,975: FVG + Support, the main downside objective.
Bearish Scenario — Another Rejection Ahead?
A corrective rally toward 4,085.178 could provide another test of the descending channel resistance.
If price sweeps nearby buy-side liquidity and produces bearish displacement with a confirmed Market Structure Shift (MSS), sellers could regain control.
A subsequent breakdown below 4,038.090, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen the continuation scenario toward 3,960–3,975.
This remains the primary scenario, not a confirmed outcome.
Bullish Scenario — Can Buyers Reclaim Resistance?
If buyers successfully reclaim 4,085.178 and establish bullish displacement outside the descending channel, the bearish outlook would weaken.
A confirmed bullish BOS could reopen the path toward the previous swing-high region around 4,120–4,145.
The Bigger Picture
Gold's recent rally has been supported by a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields.
However, today's US Nonfarm Payrolls report could significantly change expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy.
Strong employment data may support the dollar, while weaker figures could provide further support for gold.
Cyrus Gold's Takeaway
A strong rally does not guarantee continuation. When structure changes, the market deserves a fresh analysis.
For now, 4,085 remains the level to watch, while 4,038 is the next important structural test.
Will sellers defend resistance and drive Gold toward $3,970, or can buyers reclaim the descending structure?
The next reaction around 4,085 could determine whether this is simply a temporary correction or the beginning of another bearish expansion.
Market Structure — Sellers Regain Control
Following the recent bullish rally, XAUUSD failed to maintain its upward momentum near the 4,145 region.
Price subsequently developed a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
Gold is now trading around 4,045.385, close to the Volume Profile POC, while the 4,038.090 level represents another important structural reference.
The short-term structure currently favors sellers, although a corrective bounce remains possible.
Liquidity & Key Areas
Three important levels deserve attention:
4,085.178: Key resistance and potential bearish rejection area.
4,045.385: Volume Profile POC, where price is currently trading.
4,038.090: Important support and structural decision level.
3,960–3,975: FVG + Support, the main downside objective.
Bearish Scenario — Another Rejection Ahead?
A corrective rally toward 4,085.178 could provide another test of the descending channel resistance.
If price sweeps nearby buy-side liquidity and produces bearish displacement with a confirmed Market Structure Shift (MSS), sellers could regain control.
A subsequent breakdown below 4,038.090, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen the continuation scenario toward 3,960–3,975.
This remains the primary scenario, not a confirmed outcome.
Bullish Scenario — Can Buyers Reclaim Resistance?
If buyers successfully reclaim 4,085.178 and establish bullish displacement outside the descending channel, the bearish outlook would weaken.
A confirmed bullish BOS could reopen the path toward the previous swing-high region around 4,120–4,145.
The Bigger Picture
Gold's recent rally has been supported by a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields.
However, today's US Nonfarm Payrolls report could significantly change expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy.
Strong employment data may support the dollar, while weaker figures could provide further support for gold.
Cyrus Gold's Takeaway
A strong rally does not guarantee continuation. When structure changes, the market deserves a fresh analysis.
For now, 4,085 remains the level to watch, while 4,038 is the next important structural test.
Will sellers defend resistance and drive Gold toward $3,970, or can buyers reclaim the descending structure?
Trade active
Gold has moved in line with the original bearish scenario, declining within the descending channel and testing the key POC support near 4,038.
The subsequent rebound remains below the 4,085 resistance level, keeping the broader bearish structure intact.
The next downside objective is a retest of 4,038. A confirmed breakdown could extend the move toward the 3,960–3,975 FVG support zone.
A sustained breakout above 4,110 and the descending channel would invalidate the current bearish outlook.
The plan remains active, with resistance and price structure guiding the next move.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.