For the past two days, I have been consistently saying that sellers remain in control of Gold and that the overall market structure is still bearish. Based on that, I expected a strong selling move, and that's exactly what we witnessed. We finally got a solid bearish continuation along with a daily close below $4000.
Now the big question is: What should we expect on the last trading day of the week?
Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand the market psychology but also give you a clear trading plan for today's session.
We have now reached a very important area, and the close below $4000 has changed market sentiment significantly. As soon as the market closed below this major psychological level, many retail traders randomly jumped into selling positions. At the same time, another group of traders is still trying to fight for buying opportunities above $3950, mainly because the $3944-$3975 zone has acted as a strong demand area in the past.
Even today, you can see Gold attempting to hold support around $3970. This is the same area from which Gold previously delivered a short-term reversal, and because of that, many emotional buyers are entering the market with stop losses below $3950, hoping that another bullish reversal will happen.
However, I believe those expectations are likely to be disappointed.
Despite the aggressive bullish rallies we have seen over the last several days, my view has remained unchanged. Those sharp buying moves were never enough to change the higher-timeframe trend. Instead, I believe they were simply inducement moves designed to attract buyers into the market before another wave of selling.
The overall higher-timeframe structure is still strongly bearish, and as long as that structure remains intact, I will continue to favor selling opportunities over buying. If you decide to buy, I believe it is much safer to trade with smaller position sizes. My main focus is still on catching the next larger bearish move.
Friday Trading Plan
For Friday, I prefer to be slightly less aggressive because Gold is already trading below $4000 and very close to this year's lows. At these levels, both buyers and sellers become extremely emotional, which usually increases volatility and creates false moves.
Because of that, my focus today will mainly be on smaller intraday scalps rather than chasing aggressive positions.
I believe Gold is likely to spend most of today's session trading above $3960 and below $4017.
Just as the market repeatedly trapped buyers above $4000 before delivering the recent sell-off, there is a good possibility that Gold may now spend some time above $3950, keeping buyers interested while simultaneously frustrating sellers before the next impulsive bearish move begins.
Today's session could simply become a battle between buyers and sellers inside this lower price range.
However, my overall bias remains unchanged.
I still consider $4017 to be an excellent selling zone, and I remain strongly bearish below $4028. From those levels, I will continue looking for selling opportunities targeting $3944, $3921, $3908, and eventually $3890.
Until then, I have no interest in planning any short-term buying trades. My focus remains entirely on following the higher-timeframe bearish trend.
I hope you found this analysis logical, valuable, and educational. My goal is not only to share a trading plan but also to help you understand the psychology behind every move the market makes.
Good luck for the final trading day of the week. I wish everyone a profitable trading session.
What is your view on Gold? Do you think the bearish trend will continue, or are you expecting a reversal?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
Now the big question is: What should we expect on the last trading day of the week?
Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand the market psychology but also give you a clear trading plan for today's session.
We have now reached a very important area, and the close below $4000 has changed market sentiment significantly. As soon as the market closed below this major psychological level, many retail traders randomly jumped into selling positions. At the same time, another group of traders is still trying to fight for buying opportunities above $3950, mainly because the $3944-$3975 zone has acted as a strong demand area in the past.
Even today, you can see Gold attempting to hold support around $3970. This is the same area from which Gold previously delivered a short-term reversal, and because of that, many emotional buyers are entering the market with stop losses below $3950, hoping that another bullish reversal will happen.
However, I believe those expectations are likely to be disappointed.
Despite the aggressive bullish rallies we have seen over the last several days, my view has remained unchanged. Those sharp buying moves were never enough to change the higher-timeframe trend. Instead, I believe they were simply inducement moves designed to attract buyers into the market before another wave of selling.
The overall higher-timeframe structure is still strongly bearish, and as long as that structure remains intact, I will continue to favor selling opportunities over buying. If you decide to buy, I believe it is much safer to trade with smaller position sizes. My main focus is still on catching the next larger bearish move.
Friday Trading Plan
For Friday, I prefer to be slightly less aggressive because Gold is already trading below $4000 and very close to this year's lows. At these levels, both buyers and sellers become extremely emotional, which usually increases volatility and creates false moves.
Because of that, my focus today will mainly be on smaller intraday scalps rather than chasing aggressive positions.
I believe Gold is likely to spend most of today's session trading above $3960 and below $4017.
Just as the market repeatedly trapped buyers above $4000 before delivering the recent sell-off, there is a good possibility that Gold may now spend some time above $3950, keeping buyers interested while simultaneously frustrating sellers before the next impulsive bearish move begins.
Today's session could simply become a battle between buyers and sellers inside this lower price range.
However, my overall bias remains unchanged.
I still consider $4017 to be an excellent selling zone, and I remain strongly bearish below $4028. From those levels, I will continue looking for selling opportunities targeting $3944, $3921, $3908, and eventually $3890.
Until then, I have no interest in planning any short-term buying trades. My focus remains entirely on following the higher-timeframe bearish trend.
I hope you found this analysis logical, valuable, and educational. My goal is not only to share a trading plan but also to help you understand the psychology behind every move the market makes.
Good luck for the final trading day of the week. I wish everyone a profitable trading session.
What is your view on Gold? Do you think the bearish trend will continue, or are you expecting a reversal?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.