XAUUSD: Demand Reacts, But Sellers Still Wait Above
Market Context
Gold is recovering slightly from the monthly low area, but the upside still looks limited. US-Iran tensions, inflation concerns, and stronger USD demand continue to pressure gold, while expectations of a more restrictive Fed stance keep buyers cautious.
The market is not showing a clean bullish reversal yet. The current bounce is more like a technical reaction from demand, not a confirmed trend shift.
Key point: gold is reacting from demand, but sellers may return if price rebounds into 4,055 - 4,080.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 3,983 after reacting inside the Liquidity Sweep / Demand Zone.
The short-term trend remains weak. Price is holding the bottom temporarily, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,007 first before a stronger rebound can develop.
Above that, 4,029 is the next buy-side liquidity target. If price reaches this area and keeps momentum, gold may extend toward the Sell Reaction Zone at 4,055 - 4,080.
However, as long as price remains below the major supply structure, rallies should still be treated carefully. The broader bearish setup still supports fresh selling pressure at higher prices.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,983
Demand Zone: 3,960 - 3,980
Buy Zone: 4,007
Buy-side Liquidity: 4,029
Sell Reaction Zone: 4,055 - 4,080
Major Supply Zone: 4,105 - 4,120
Bullish Above: 4,029
Bearish Below: 3,960
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,007 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,960
TP: 4,029 / 4,055 / 4,080
Condition: Price must hold the demand zone, reclaim 4,007 with strength, and form a clear bullish CHOCH. This is only a short-term rebound setup, not a full reversal.
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,055 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,105
TP: 4,029 / 4,007 / 3,980
Condition: Price rebounds into the Sell Reaction Zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the structure.
Sell at Major Supply
Entry: 4,105 - 4,120
SL: Above 4,140
TP: 4,080 / 4,029 / 4,007
Condition: Price sweeps higher into major supply and gets rejected. This would be a stronger sell setup if the rebound becomes extended.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,960
SL: Above 3,983
TP: 3,940 / 3,920 / 3,900
Condition: Demand fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the bounce has failed.
Overall Bias
Gold is reacting from demand, but the structure is still not bullish. Buyers need to reclaim 4,007 and 4,029 before the recovery can become stronger.
Until then, the main plan is to watch for a short-term rebound first, then look for seller reaction around 4,055 - 4,080.
Best approach: wait for confirmation at demand or resistance. Do not chase the bounce while gold is still below the sell reaction zone.
Will buyers reclaim 4,029, or will sellers use this rebound to push gold back below demand?
Market Context
Gold is recovering slightly from the monthly low area, but the upside still looks limited. US-Iran tensions, inflation concerns, and stronger USD demand continue to pressure gold, while expectations of a more restrictive Fed stance keep buyers cautious.
The market is not showing a clean bullish reversal yet. The current bounce is more like a technical reaction from demand, not a confirmed trend shift.
Key point: gold is reacting from demand, but sellers may return if price rebounds into 4,055 - 4,080.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 3,983 after reacting inside the Liquidity Sweep / Demand Zone.
The short-term trend remains weak. Price is holding the bottom temporarily, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,007 first before a stronger rebound can develop.
Above that, 4,029 is the next buy-side liquidity target. If price reaches this area and keeps momentum, gold may extend toward the Sell Reaction Zone at 4,055 - 4,080.
However, as long as price remains below the major supply structure, rallies should still be treated carefully. The broader bearish setup still supports fresh selling pressure at higher prices.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,983
Demand Zone: 3,960 - 3,980
Buy Zone: 4,007
Buy-side Liquidity: 4,029
Sell Reaction Zone: 4,055 - 4,080
Major Supply Zone: 4,105 - 4,120
Bullish Above: 4,029
Bearish Below: 3,960
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,007 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,960
TP: 4,029 / 4,055 / 4,080
Condition: Price must hold the demand zone, reclaim 4,007 with strength, and form a clear bullish CHOCH. This is only a short-term rebound setup, not a full reversal.
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,055 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,105
TP: 4,029 / 4,007 / 3,980
Condition: Price rebounds into the Sell Reaction Zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the structure.
Sell at Major Supply
Entry: 4,105 - 4,120
SL: Above 4,140
TP: 4,080 / 4,029 / 4,007
Condition: Price sweeps higher into major supply and gets rejected. This would be a stronger sell setup if the rebound becomes extended.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,960
SL: Above 3,983
TP: 3,940 / 3,920 / 3,900
Condition: Demand fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the bounce has failed.
Overall Bias
Gold is reacting from demand, but the structure is still not bullish. Buyers need to reclaim 4,007 and 4,029 before the recovery can become stronger.
Until then, the main plan is to watch for a short-term rebound first, then look for seller reaction around 4,055 - 4,080.
Best approach: wait for confirmation at demand or resistance. Do not chase the bounce while gold is still below the sell reaction zone.
Will buyers reclaim 4,029, or will sellers use this rebound to push gold back below demand?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.