XAUUSD Scenarios
Current Price: 4208
Gold is in a very strong long-term uptrend (Wave 3 of the Elliott structure on the monthly and weekly charts), but is currently in the corrective phase of Wave 4 (H4 and lower time frames).
The rejection from the upper Monthly Golden Bollinger Band, combined with a Daily Doji signal and the breakdown of the H4 regression channel, suggests a deeper correction before Wave 3 resumes.
Most Likely Scenarios based on current data in Order of Probability :
1. Correction toward the strong 4160–4130 zone (70% probability)
(overlap of Monthly MSZ + Weekly Support + Daily Trendline)
→ followed by continuation of Wave 3 toward targets 4330 → 4438
2. A direct breakout of the 4245–4255 resistance zone (20% probability)
and continuation of the uptrend without a deep pullback
3. Breakdown of the 4130 support (probability less than 10%)
would activate a short-term bearish scenario toward 4050–4000
Current Price: 4208
Gold is in a very strong long-term uptrend (Wave 3 of the Elliott structure on the monthly and weekly charts), but is currently in the corrective phase of Wave 4 (H4 and lower time frames).
The rejection from the upper Monthly Golden Bollinger Band, combined with a Daily Doji signal and the breakdown of the H4 regression channel, suggests a deeper correction before Wave 3 resumes.
Most Likely Scenarios based on current data in Order of Probability :
1. Correction toward the strong 4160–4130 zone (70% probability)
(overlap of Monthly MSZ + Weekly Support + Daily Trendline)
→ followed by continuation of Wave 3 toward targets 4330 → 4438
2. A direct breakout of the 4245–4255 resistance zone (20% probability)
and continuation of the uptrend without a deep pullback
3. Breakdown of the 4130 support (probability less than 10%)
would activate a short-term bearish scenario toward 4050–4000
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.