BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REACTING FROM LOW VALUE, BUT HIGHER SUPPLY STILL DOMINATES
Gold is currently bouncing from a lower value area after tapping into the monthly low zone. This move is not a breakout — it is a classic Volume Profile reaction from discounted price, where buyers step in to absorb liquidity.
However, the overall structure still shows imbalance to the downside. The market is not yet accepting higher value, and sellers are still positioned above.
From a macro perspective, USD strength driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tension continues to weigh on gold. The market is leaning toward a more hawkish Fed narrative, which limits upside potential. This reinforces the idea that the current move is a corrective bounce, not a trend reversal.
Volume Profile structure
On H1, price is attempting to build acceptance above the POC Holding Zone at 3,980 - 3,990.
This zone represents the most traded area after the recent sell-off — a key balance point where buyers are trying to establish control. If price continues to hold above this level, it signals short-term value acceptance and opens the door for a rotation higher.
However, the broader context still shows a bearish channel. This means any move up is likely to be a rotation toward higher liquidity zones, where sellers may re-enter.
Above current price, we have clear low-volume areas leading into resistance zones. These are typical targets for price to move quickly into, but also areas where rejection can occur.
Key Volume Profile zones
POC Holding Zone: 3,980 - 3,990
This is the current value area where the market is trying to stabilize. Holding above this zone = short-term bullish acceptance.
Low Volume Expansion Zone: 4,035 - 4,040
This is the first upside magnet. Price can move quickly into this area due to low resistance, but reaction is expected.
High Supply Zone: 4,075 - 4,080
This is where previous selling pressure exists. If price reaches here, expect strong reaction or rejection.
Bearish Channel Resistance
This is the structural ceiling. As long as price remains inside this channel, sellers still control the higher timeframe narrative.
Trading scenario – Volume Profile approach
Buy only when price confirms acceptance above the POC Holding Zone 3,980 - 3,990
Entry:
Wait for price to hold above 3,980 - 3,990 and show clear rejection of lower prices (absorption, strong bullish candles, or failed breakdown).
Stop Loss:
Below the POC zone or below the recent liquidity sweep.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,035 - 4,040 (low volume target)
TP2: 4,075 - 4,080 (high supply zone)
Important note:
This is a rotation trade from low value to higher value — not a trend continuation setup.
Final view
Gold is currently rotating higher from a discounted zone, but the market has not yet shifted into a bullish structure.
As long as price remains inside the bearish channel, every rally should be viewed as a move into supply, not a breakout.
The real game is not at the bottom — it is at the higher zones where liquidity and sellers are waiting.
Key question:
Will the market accept higher value above 4,040 and push toward 4,080, or will this bounce simply feed sellers for the next leg down?
Gold is currently bouncing from a lower value area after tapping into the monthly low zone. This move is not a breakout — it is a classic Volume Profile reaction from discounted price, where buyers step in to absorb liquidity.
However, the overall structure still shows imbalance to the downside. The market is not yet accepting higher value, and sellers are still positioned above.
From a macro perspective, USD strength driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tension continues to weigh on gold. The market is leaning toward a more hawkish Fed narrative, which limits upside potential. This reinforces the idea that the current move is a corrective bounce, not a trend reversal.
Volume Profile structure
On H1, price is attempting to build acceptance above the POC Holding Zone at 3,980 - 3,990.
This zone represents the most traded area after the recent sell-off — a key balance point where buyers are trying to establish control. If price continues to hold above this level, it signals short-term value acceptance and opens the door for a rotation higher.
However, the broader context still shows a bearish channel. This means any move up is likely to be a rotation toward higher liquidity zones, where sellers may re-enter.
Above current price, we have clear low-volume areas leading into resistance zones. These are typical targets for price to move quickly into, but also areas where rejection can occur.
Key Volume Profile zones
POC Holding Zone: 3,980 - 3,990
This is the current value area where the market is trying to stabilize. Holding above this zone = short-term bullish acceptance.
Low Volume Expansion Zone: 4,035 - 4,040
This is the first upside magnet. Price can move quickly into this area due to low resistance, but reaction is expected.
High Supply Zone: 4,075 - 4,080
This is where previous selling pressure exists. If price reaches here, expect strong reaction or rejection.
Bearish Channel Resistance
This is the structural ceiling. As long as price remains inside this channel, sellers still control the higher timeframe narrative.
Trading scenario – Volume Profile approach
Buy only when price confirms acceptance above the POC Holding Zone 3,980 - 3,990
Entry:
Wait for price to hold above 3,980 - 3,990 and show clear rejection of lower prices (absorption, strong bullish candles, or failed breakdown).
Stop Loss:
Below the POC zone or below the recent liquidity sweep.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,035 - 4,040 (low volume target)
TP2: 4,075 - 4,080 (high supply zone)
Important note:
This is a rotation trade from low value to higher value — not a trend continuation setup.
Final view
Gold is currently rotating higher from a discounted zone, but the market has not yet shifted into a bullish structure.
As long as price remains inside the bearish channel, every rally should be viewed as a move into supply, not a breakout.
The real game is not at the bottom — it is at the higher zones where liquidity and sellers are waiting.
Key question:
Will the market accept higher value above 4,040 and push toward 4,080, or will this bounce simply feed sellers for the next leg down?
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.