Gold continues to face selling pressure for the third consecutive session after repeatedly failing to reclaim 4,200.
Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate outlook, elevated oil prices, and geopolitical tensions continues to influence market sentiment. Although the US Dollar is struggling to extend its recovery, gold has yet to establish a convincing bullish reversal.
On the H2 chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,113, testing a critical support area where the ascending trendline, Volume Profile and ICT Fair Value Gap (FVG) converge.
My preferred outlook remains bearish below 4,170–4,190, with a potential liquidity sweep toward 4,067 before a stronger recovery.
Technical Structure – Volume Profile + Trendline + ICT
1. Volume Profile – Sellers Maintain Control
Volume Profile shows a progressive shift in market acceptance toward lower prices.
Gold previously established significant trading activity around 4,130–4,155 before recovering toward 4,170–4,190.
However, buyers failed to maintain acceptance above this resistance, allowing sellers to regain control.
The current 4,110–4,135 region is an important value decision area.
A sustained breakdown could expose 4,100 and eventually 4,067–4,075.
Conversely, reclaiming 4,150–4,160 would suggest improving short-term buying interest.
2. Trendline – Critical Support Under Pressure
The broader descending trendline continues to connect lower highs from September, confirming the bearish H2 structure.
Meanwhile, the ascending trendline from the October 14 low near 4,067 has supported the recent recovery.
Gold is now testing this rising support after another rejection from 4,170–4,190.
A confirmed breakdown below the ascending trendline would strengthen the bearish scenario.
However, a successful defense could trigger a technical recovery toward 4,150–4,190.
3. ICT – FVG and Lower Liquidity
The 4,110–4,135 FVG overlaps with the rising trendline, creating an important potential reaction area.
Below this zone, sell-side liquidity remains around 4,100, followed by major support at 4,067.
A bearish displacement below 4,110 could trigger a deeper liquidity rotation.
Alternatively, a sweep of 4,067 followed by bullish displacement and a confirmed Market Structure Shift could create a recovery opportunity.
Sustained acceptance below 4,067 would favor further bearish continuation.
Important Price Zones
Current FVG / Support: 4,110–4,135
Short-term resistance: 4,145–4,160
Major sell reaction zone: 4,170–4,190
Bullish breakout level: 4,190–4,200
Next upside resistance: 4,217–4,228
Sell-side liquidity: 4,100–4,110
Major lower support: 4,067–4,075
Extended recovery target: 4,317
Trading Scenarios
Primary Scenario – Sell After Support Breakdown
Entry: After a confirmed break below 4,110 and failed retest.
Stop Loss: Above the confirmed retest high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,075
TP3: 4,067
A sustained breakdown below 4,067 would increase the risk of further bearish continuation.
Alternative Scenario – Buy After Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 4,067–4,075, only after bullish rejection and a confirmed Market Structure Shift.
Stop Loss: Below the confirmed liquidity sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,110–4,135
TP2: 4,145–4,160
TP3: 4,170–4,190
This remains a countertrend recovery unless gold breaks above the broader descending resistance.
Bullish Breakout Scenario
A confirmed breakout and successful retest above 4,190–4,200 could open the way toward 4,217–4,228.
Further acceptance above 4,228 would bring 4,317 into focus.
Final View
Gold remains bearish on H2, with Volume Profile showing lower value acceptance and the descending trendline continuing to favor sellers.
The 4,110–4,135 FVG is now the immediate decision zone.
My trading map:
Below 4,170–4,190 → bearish pressure remains active.
Hold 4,110–4,135 → possible short-term recovery.
Break below 4,110 → downside opens toward 4,100.
Lose 4,100 → 4,067 becomes the next major target.
Sweep 4,067 and reclaim support → potential bullish recovery.
Break below 4,067 → bearish continuation risk increases.
Reclaim 4,190–4,200 → recovery toward 4,217–4,228 becomes possible.
My preferred scenario is a liquidity sweep toward 4,067 before a confirmed recovery, while the broader bearish structure remains valid below 4,190.
Will gold break 4,110 and test 4,067, or will buyers defend the FVG and push back toward 4,190?
Which scenario are you watching?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+MLnZundgRZY2MTY9
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+MLnZundgRZY2MTY9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.