The gold market enters today's session amidst increasing macroeconomic risks. Tensions in various regions remain high, while the USD and oil prices stay elevated, reflecting a shift of capital towards defensive assets. However, the main focus of the market tonight is the US CPI data, a factor that could cause significant volatility for both USD and gold.
Although geopolitical risks typically support gold, recent price action shows that each upward move occurs quite slowly while the declines are very strong, indicating that the market is still in a liquidity distribution phase rather than entering a clear upward trend.
On the H1 chart, gold has broken the short-term downtrend structure and is moving into the FVG + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 zone (5188 – 5233). This is a critical liquidity area where the market may experience a bull trap before reversing if buying pressure is not strong enough.
Main scenario:
If the price continues to hold above 5180 – 5200, gold may extend its recovery to 5230 → 5265, where there is a cluster of FVG + liquidity H1/H4.
Risk scenario:
If tonight's CPI strengthens the USD and the price is rejected at the 5230 zone, gold could quickly reverse down to 5160 → 5120, possibly even retesting the H4 support trendline.
Key levels to watch:
• 5180 – 5200: H1 structure support zone
• 5230 – 5265: FVG / supply zone
• 5160: near breakdown zone
• 5000: major market structure level
In the short term, the market may experience significant volatility before and after the CPI data, so the reaction at the 5200 – 5230 zone will be crucial for determining the next direction.
Follow LucasGrayTrading for updates on the multi-timeframe gold roadmap and key liquidity zones ahead of major market moves.
Although geopolitical risks typically support gold, recent price action shows that each upward move occurs quite slowly while the declines are very strong, indicating that the market is still in a liquidity distribution phase rather than entering a clear upward trend.
On the H1 chart, gold has broken the short-term downtrend structure and is moving into the FVG + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 zone (5188 – 5233). This is a critical liquidity area where the market may experience a bull trap before reversing if buying pressure is not strong enough.
Main scenario:
If the price continues to hold above 5180 – 5200, gold may extend its recovery to 5230 → 5265, where there is a cluster of FVG + liquidity H1/H4.
Risk scenario:
If tonight's CPI strengthens the USD and the price is rejected at the 5230 zone, gold could quickly reverse down to 5160 → 5120, possibly even retesting the H4 support trendline.
Key levels to watch:
• 5180 – 5200: H1 structure support zone
• 5230 – 5265: FVG / supply zone
• 5160: near breakdown zone
• 5000: major market structure level
In the short term, the market may experience significant volatility before and after the CPI data, so the reaction at the 5200 – 5230 zone will be crucial for determining the next direction.
Follow LucasGrayTrading for updates on the multi-timeframe gold roadmap and key liquidity zones ahead of major market moves.
Trade active
GOLD 11/03 (H1)
The price has touched the H1 FVG zone around 5220–5230 and a selling reaction has begun to appear. At the same time, the short-term uptrend structure on H1 has been broken, indicating that the recovery momentum is weakening.
If the price does not reclaim the 5200–5220 zone, there is a high possibility that gold will return to test 5160 → 5140 (Fibo 0.382 + lower FVG).
In the context of tonight's CPI, volatility may be strong, so the reaction around 5200 will determine whether this is a pullback or a continuation of the decline.
Trade closed: target reached
UPDATE GOLD – BIAS SHORT CONFIRMED
The price reacted precisely at the upper H1 FVG zone (~5210–5230) and then a strong selling force appeared, quickly bringing gold down to the lower FVG zone + the previously broken H1 downtrend line (~5140–5160). This indicates that the upper area remains a liquidity distribution zone, where the market continues to seek supply.
Currently, gold is retesting the important structural zone. If the price clearly breaks the 5140 zone, the short-term structure may extend the decline to 5120 → 5080, possibly returning to liquidity around 5000.
Conversely, if this zone holds, gold may create a slight technical rebound to 5180–5200 before the market decides the next direction.
Key levels to watch:
• 5200 – 5230: supply zone / H1 FVG
• 5140 – 5160: current decision zone
• 5120 – 5080: lower liquidity
• 5000: major structural mark
The current bias still leans towards SHORT as the rebounds are continuously sold off.
Follow to update PLAN GOLD 12/03, where we will monitor whether the market breaks the current structure to extend a new decline or is merely accumulating before the next big move.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.