XAUUSD M45: Gold Recovers From Weekly Low, But 4,360 Remains Key Resistance
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is recovering after the sharp post-FOMC drop into the weekly low area. Optimism around the US-Iran peace agreement is supporting short-term demand as traders take profit on the US dollar.
However, the Fed’s hawkish tone still limits the upside. As long as USD remains supported by rate expectations, gold needs stronger confirmation before the recovery can turn into a clean bullish continuation.
Technical Analysis
On the M45 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,314 after being rejected from the 4,360 - 4,380 resistance zone. This area is the main sell zone on the chart and also sits near the current strong high.
From an SMC view, price has recovered from the weekly low and returned above the internal bullish OB. However, buying momentum is not strong enough yet while price remains below 4,330 - 4,340.
The key buy reaction zone is 4,220 - 4,240. If price pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, gold may create another recovery move. If price loses 4,220, the next downside area is 4,180 - 4,200.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,314
Short-term resistance: 4,330 - 4,340
Main sell zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Buy reaction zone: 4,220 - 4,240
Lower support: 4,180 - 4,200
Deep demand zone: 4,055 - 4,080
Bullish confirmation: Above 4,340
Bearish risk: Below 4,220
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Buy From Pullback
Entry: 4,220 - 4,240 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,180
Take Profit 1: 4,330 - 4,340
Take Profit 2: 4,360 - 4,380
Take Profit 3: 4,400
Entry Conditions
Price pulls back into the 4,220 - 4,240 buy zone.
Buyers show clear rejection from this area.
M45 or lower timeframe forms bullish CHOCH.
Price reclaims 4,304 - 4,314 with strength.
Avoid buying if price breaks and holds below 4,220.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,360 - 4,380 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,400
Take Profit 1: 4,330
Take Profit 2: 4,240
Take Profit 3: 4,200
Sell Conditions
Price needs to retest the 4,360 - 4,380 sell zone and fail to break higher. If bearish rejection appears there, gold may correct back toward the lower support zones.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,220 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,250
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,180
Take Profit 3: 4,080
Overall View
Gold has recovered from the weekly low, but the structure is not fully bullish yet. The first key level buyers need to reclaim is 4,330 - 4,340, while 4,360 - 4,380 remains the main resistance zone.
The better plan is to avoid chasing price in the middle. Wait for either a clean pullback into 4,220 - 4,240 for buy confirmation, or a rejection from 4,360 - 4,380 for a short-term sell reaction.
Do you think gold will defend 4,220 - 4,240 and recover again, or reject from 4,360 - 4,380 first?
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is recovering after the sharp post-FOMC drop into the weekly low area. Optimism around the US-Iran peace agreement is supporting short-term demand as traders take profit on the US dollar.
However, the Fed’s hawkish tone still limits the upside. As long as USD remains supported by rate expectations, gold needs stronger confirmation before the recovery can turn into a clean bullish continuation.
Technical Analysis
On the M45 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,314 after being rejected from the 4,360 - 4,380 resistance zone. This area is the main sell zone on the chart and also sits near the current strong high.
From an SMC view, price has recovered from the weekly low and returned above the internal bullish OB. However, buying momentum is not strong enough yet while price remains below 4,330 - 4,340.
The key buy reaction zone is 4,220 - 4,240. If price pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, gold may create another recovery move. If price loses 4,220, the next downside area is 4,180 - 4,200.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,314
Short-term resistance: 4,330 - 4,340
Main sell zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Buy reaction zone: 4,220 - 4,240
Lower support: 4,180 - 4,200
Deep demand zone: 4,055 - 4,080
Bullish confirmation: Above 4,340
Bearish risk: Below 4,220
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Buy From Pullback
Entry: 4,220 - 4,240 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,180
Take Profit 1: 4,330 - 4,340
Take Profit 2: 4,360 - 4,380
Take Profit 3: 4,400
Entry Conditions
Price pulls back into the 4,220 - 4,240 buy zone.
Buyers show clear rejection from this area.
M45 or lower timeframe forms bullish CHOCH.
Price reclaims 4,304 - 4,314 with strength.
Avoid buying if price breaks and holds below 4,220.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,360 - 4,380 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,400
Take Profit 1: 4,330
Take Profit 2: 4,240
Take Profit 3: 4,200
Sell Conditions
Price needs to retest the 4,360 - 4,380 sell zone and fail to break higher. If bearish rejection appears there, gold may correct back toward the lower support zones.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,220 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,250
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,180
Take Profit 3: 4,080
Overall View
Gold has recovered from the weekly low, but the structure is not fully bullish yet. The first key level buyers need to reclaim is 4,330 - 4,340, while 4,360 - 4,380 remains the main resistance zone.
The better plan is to avoid chasing price in the middle. Wait for either a clean pullback into 4,220 - 4,240 for buy confirmation, or a rejection from 4,360 - 4,380 for a short-term sell reaction.
Do you think gold will defend 4,220 - 4,240 and recover again, or reject from 4,360 - 4,380 first?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.