✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis
📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:
• Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
• However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
• Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.
→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.
💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch
🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone
• 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
• 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
• Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.
🔸 Support / Buy Zone
• 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
• If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.
🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170
Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.
BUY Conditions:
• Price touches 4,184–4,170
• Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
• Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear
Targets:
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,215
• TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x
If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:
SELL Conditions:
• Retest 4,243–4,244
• Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
• Must not close H1 above 4,250
Targets:
• TP1: 4,235
• TP2: 4,225
• TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170
Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.
3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261
Only activate when:
• Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
• Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
• Structure forms HL → HH
At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
• SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:
• Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
• However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
• Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.
→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.
💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch
🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone
• 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
• 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
• Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.
🔸 Support / Buy Zone
• 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
• If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.
🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170
Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.
BUY Conditions:
• Price touches 4,184–4,170
• Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
• Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear
Targets:
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,215
• TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x
If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:
SELL Conditions:
• Retest 4,243–4,244
• Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
• Must not close H1 above 4,250
Targets:
• TP1: 4,235
• TP2: 4,225
• TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170
Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.
3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261
Only activate when:
• Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
• Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
• Structure forms HL → HH
At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
• SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
Note
Entry Support : 4.200 + 60PIPSTrade active
XAU/USD – BUY 4,184 ➜ 4,243 (+590 PIPS) | SELL 4,243 ➜ 4,186 (currently +400 PIPS) ⚜️The BUY setup from the 4,184 USD OB played out perfectly following the BoS – ChoCH – OB Retest structure, reaching the 4,243 USD Liquidity Zone and delivering over +590 PIPS in profit.
At 4,243 USD, Gold reacted sharply — triggering the planned SELL setup, which is now running over +400 PIPS and still has potential to extend toward 4,186 USD.
Both setups respected the zones with precision, showcasing how Smart Money Flow continues to play out flawlessly.
If price breaks below 4,186, the next key zone to monitor is 4,170 – 4,160 USD.
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Join Real - Time Trade Post: t.me/+6eLZ50qp_PUyMTY1
🔥 3 - 4 DAILY TRADE
🔥 15 - 20 SCALPING SIGNALS
🔥 Real - Time Proceed Orders
🔥 3 - 4 DAILY TRADE
🔥 15 - 20 SCALPING SIGNALS
🔥 Real - Time Proceed Orders
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.