XAUUSD — Bearish Channel Toward 4,175
Gold is still moving inside a clear bearish channel after failing to reclaim the upper resistance trendline. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD remains under downside pressure, and the current recovery may only be a short correction before the next bearish wave continues.
The key idea is simple: gold is trading near the sell zone, and if buyers fail to break above this area, sellers may push price back toward lower support and the final target zone.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,333, right below the short-term sell zone near 4,335–4,350. This area is important because it sits close to the descending trendline and may act as the next rejection zone.
The broader structure is still bearish. Price is forming lower highs inside the downtrend channel, while each recovery remains limited under resistance. If gold rejects from the current sell zone, the first downside area to watch is the strong support zone around 4,285–4,300.
A clean break below this support may open the next move toward the 4,235–4,245 buy scalping area. If bearish momentum continues, the final target remains near 4,170–4,180.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,333
◌ Sell zone: 4,335–4,350
◌ Strong support: 4,285–4,300
◌ Buy scalping zone: 4,235–4,245
◌ Main bearish target: 4,170–4,180
◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,360–4,380
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a possible bearish Elliott Wave continuation.
Wave (1) may have started after price rejected from the upper channel area.
Wave (2) created a corrective rebound but failed below the downtrend resistance.
Wave (3) may now continue lower toward 4,235–4,245.
Wave (4) could create a short recovery from the buy scalping area.
Wave (5) may complete the bearish structure near 4,170–4,180.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys at the current price. The cleaner plan is to watch the sell zone and wait for bearish confirmation before following the next downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,335–4,350 if price gives bearish rejection
Stop Loss: Above 4,380
Take Profit 1: 4,285–4,300
Take Profit 2: 4,235–4,245
Take Profit 3: 4,170–4,180
Alternative entry
If gold breaks below 4,285 and retests it weakly, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,235–4,245 and then 4,170–4,180.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,360–4,380 and holds above the descending trendline. In that case, the current bearish wave structure may be delayed, and price could attempt a stronger recovery first.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,335–4,350 sell zone and the descending trendline. The market is still moving inside a downward structure, so rebounds are more likely to be watched for rejection than chased as bullish continuation.
If sellers defend the sell zone, gold may continue toward 4,285–4,300, then 4,235–4,245, with the larger target near 4,170–4,180.
Do you think gold will reject from the sell zone first, or retest strong support before the next wave lower?
Gold is still moving inside a clear bearish channel after failing to reclaim the upper resistance trendline. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD remains under downside pressure, and the current recovery may only be a short correction before the next bearish wave continues.
The key idea is simple: gold is trading near the sell zone, and if buyers fail to break above this area, sellers may push price back toward lower support and the final target zone.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,333, right below the short-term sell zone near 4,335–4,350. This area is important because it sits close to the descending trendline and may act as the next rejection zone.
The broader structure is still bearish. Price is forming lower highs inside the downtrend channel, while each recovery remains limited under resistance. If gold rejects from the current sell zone, the first downside area to watch is the strong support zone around 4,285–4,300.
A clean break below this support may open the next move toward the 4,235–4,245 buy scalping area. If bearish momentum continues, the final target remains near 4,170–4,180.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,333
◌ Sell zone: 4,335–4,350
◌ Strong support: 4,285–4,300
◌ Buy scalping zone: 4,235–4,245
◌ Main bearish target: 4,170–4,180
◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,360–4,380
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a possible bearish Elliott Wave continuation.
Wave (1) may have started after price rejected from the upper channel area.
Wave (2) created a corrective rebound but failed below the downtrend resistance.
Wave (3) may now continue lower toward 4,235–4,245.
Wave (4) could create a short recovery from the buy scalping area.
Wave (5) may complete the bearish structure near 4,170–4,180.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys at the current price. The cleaner plan is to watch the sell zone and wait for bearish confirmation before following the next downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,335–4,350 if price gives bearish rejection
Stop Loss: Above 4,380
Take Profit 1: 4,285–4,300
Take Profit 2: 4,235–4,245
Take Profit 3: 4,170–4,180
Alternative entry
If gold breaks below 4,285 and retests it weakly, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,235–4,245 and then 4,170–4,180.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,360–4,380 and holds above the descending trendline. In that case, the current bearish wave structure may be delayed, and price could attempt a stronger recovery first.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,335–4,350 sell zone and the descending trendline. The market is still moving inside a downward structure, so rebounds are more likely to be watched for rejection than chased as bullish continuation.
If sellers defend the sell zone, gold may continue toward 4,285–4,300, then 4,235–4,245, with the larger target near 4,170–4,180.
Do you think gold will reject from the sell zone first, or retest strong support before the next wave lower?
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Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.