Gold has staged a powerful recovery from the 3,870 region, but the latest move is more significant than a simple rebound. Buyers have reclaimed an important structural level around 4,080. Can this breakout develop into a sustained bullish continuation?
The market is showing a potential shift in short-term direction, while the next pullback could determine the strength of the recovery.
Market Structure — Buyers Reclaim the Trend
Following the decline toward 3,870, XAUUSD began forming a recovery structure characterized by higher lows and improving bullish momentum.
The latest impulsive advance pushed Gold above the previous structural resistance around 4,080, creating a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH)
This breakout challenged the previous bearish sequence and shifted the short-term market structure in favor of buyers.
Gold is now trading near 4,126.285 on the referenced chart.
However, after such an aggressive advance, a corrective move would not necessarily invalidate the bullish outlook.
The important question is whether buyers can defend the reclaimed structure and establish another higher low.
Bullish Scenario — Can Gold Extend Toward 4,170?
If buyers maintain control above the reclaimed structure, Gold could attempt further upside continuation.
The immediate upside reference is the 4,160–4,170 region.
Alternatively, a pullback toward the 4,020–4,038 Fibonacci and POC confluence zone could provide an important structural test.
If buyers defend this area and establish a confirmed higher low, another bullish leg toward the projected upside region becomes more credible.
A deeper retest around 3,993.689 is also worth monitoring.
Bearish Scenario — When Would the Breakout Weaken?
If Gold loses the 4,020–4,038 confluence zone and fails to reclaim it, the current bullish structure could face a deeper correction.
The next important references would be:
3,993.689: Deeper Fibonacci retest.
3,958–3,990: Fair Value Gap area.
3,916: Deeper structural reference.
A sustained breakdown accompanied by lower highs and failed reclaim attempts would weaken the bullish continuation thesis.
The Bigger Picture
Gold's recent recovery has been supported by a weaker US dollar following the US midterm election results.
However, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy and upcoming US employment data could introduce further volatility.
But for Aries_XAU, price structure remains the primary guide.
A breakout creates opportunity. A successful retest builds confirmation.
Would you favor immediate continuation toward 4,170, or wait for Gold to establish a higher low around the Fibonacci and POC confluence zone?
Trade active
Gold has started moving in line with our original bearish outlook following the rejection from the 4,120–4,145 resistance zone. Price has pulled back toward 4,070, confirming initial selling pressure while the broader downside scenario remains active.
The next area to monitor is 4,025–4,030, followed by the key support zone at 3,945–3,965 if bearish momentum continues.
A sustained recovery above 4,145 would invalidate the current bearish setup.
The plan remains active, with price confirmation guiding the next move.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.