Probable Scenario Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD).
⏺ Present Scenario
Gold (XAUUSD)
XAUUSD is undergoing a major contraction phase. The lower-lows and lower-highs (LLs & LHs) structure is intact. The level 4250 is a weak support base. Also, the falling wedge technical chart pattern is evident. The view is indecision to bearish.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
The zone (4350 - 4300) is a strong resistance zone (SRZ). A breakout above 4350 would initiate a weak bullish move. The probable weak bullish targets above 4350 would be - 4375 and 4400. Next, if the price breaks out above 4400, then strong bullish targets would be - 4425 and 4450.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Presently, an indecision-to-bearish setup is active. Stay bearish below 4300. The probable bearish targets below 4300 would be - 4275 and 4250. The level 4250 is weak support. If the price decisively breaks down below 4250, then the probable bearish targets would be - 4225 and 4200. There will be strong support at 4200. Lastly, if the price breaks down below 4200, then strong bearish targets would be - 4175 and 4150.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (4350 - 4300).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4350 - 4250).
Here, 4300 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events (🔵 Low Impact, 🟠 Medium Impact, 🔴 High Impact):
- 21 Sep (Mon): FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks (04:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 22 Sep (Tue): ADP Weekly Employment Change (05:45 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). FOMC Member Williams Speaks (07:35 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 23 Sep (Wed): Flash Manufacturing PMI (07:15 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). Crude Oil Inventories (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 24 Sep (Thu): FOMC Member Williams Speaks (01:40 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). Unemployment Claims (06:00 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). FOMC Member Paulson Speaks (07:40 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). Natural Gas Storage (08:00 PM, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 25 Sep (Fri): Durable Goods Orders m/m (06:00 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (07:30 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). FOMC Member Hammack Speaks (11:30 PM, 🔵 Low Impact).
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
⏺ Present Scenario
Gold (XAUUSD)
XAUUSD is undergoing a major contraction phase. The lower-lows and lower-highs (LLs & LHs) structure is intact. The level 4250 is a weak support base. Also, the falling wedge technical chart pattern is evident. The view is indecision to bearish. 🟢 Bullish Scenario
The zone (4350 - 4300) is a strong resistance zone (SRZ). A breakout above 4350 would initiate a weak bullish move. The probable weak bullish targets above 4350 would be - 4375 and 4400. Next, if the price breaks out above 4400, then strong bullish targets would be - 4425 and 4450.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Presently, an indecision-to-bearish setup is active. Stay bearish below 4300. The probable bearish targets below 4300 would be - 4275 and 4250. The level 4250 is weak support. If the price decisively breaks down below 4250, then the probable bearish targets would be - 4225 and 4200. There will be strong support at 4200. Lastly, if the price breaks down below 4200, then strong bearish targets would be - 4175 and 4150.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (4350 - 4300).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4350 - 4250).
Here, 4300 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events (🔵 Low Impact, 🟠 Medium Impact, 🔴 High Impact):
- 21 Sep (Mon): FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks (04:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 22 Sep (Tue): ADP Weekly Employment Change (05:45 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). FOMC Member Williams Speaks (07:35 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 23 Sep (Wed): Flash Manufacturing PMI (07:15 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). Crude Oil Inventories (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 24 Sep (Thu): FOMC Member Williams Speaks (01:40 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). Unemployment Claims (06:00 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). FOMC Member Paulson Speaks (07:40 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). Natural Gas Storage (08:00 PM, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 25 Sep (Fri): Durable Goods Orders m/m (06:00 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (07:30 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). FOMC Member Hammack Speaks (11:30 PM, 🔵 Low Impact).
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
Note
View Date: 27.09.2026.The price is still inside the "Falling Wedge" chart pattern.
Take no bearish trade unless there is a decisive breakdown below 4250. Wait for a sustainable breakdown.
Take no bullish trade unless there is a decisive breakout above 4350.
The view is indecisive to bearish.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.