XAUUSD – Gold Rebounds Strongly, But 4,087 Is The First Test
Gold is showing a strong recovery from the lower buy zone.
After dropping close to the 4,000 area earlier, price reacted sharply from the 4,014 buy zone and is now trading around 4,077. This tells us that buyers are still active and the short-term structure has shifted into a cleaner recovery phase.
But the market is now moving into a sensitive area. Gold is approaching the 4,087 sell zone, and this is where sellers may try to react again.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains influenced by geopolitical tension and Fed expectations.
The recent U.S.–Iran headlines may keep safe-haven demand active, but rate expectations are still important. Traders currently see a low chance of a July rate hike, while the market still prices in the possibility of at least one hike later in the year.
This creates a mixed background: geopolitical risk may support gold, but a stronger USD or higher rate expectations can still limit upside.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold has reacted strongly from the buy zone around 4,014 and created bullish displacement into the upper part of the short-term rising channel.
The first support zone is now 4,038. If price pulls back and holds above this area, buyers may attempt another push higher.
The key resistance is 4,087. This area sits near the 1.618 extension and is marked as a sell zone on the chart. If gold rejects from this level, a pullback toward 4,038 may appear.
Above 4,087, the next liquidity area is around 4,103. A clean break above 4,103 would make the bullish continuation stronger and open the path for higher movement inside the channel.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,077
Buy zone: 4,014
Buy zone resistance / support: 4,038
Sell zone: 4,087
Strong liquidity: 4,103
Channel support: 4,038 – 4,014
Bullish continuation above: 4,103
Invalidation for recovery view: Below 4,014
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,038 or 4,014
Entry: Bullish reaction, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,014
TP1: 4,087
TP2: 4,103
TP3: Higher channel resistance if momentum expands
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,103
Target: Upper channel continuation
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: 4,087
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above 4,103
TP1: 4,038
TP2: 4,014
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,103, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is recovering well, but the next test is very close.
The reaction from 4,014 was strong, and buyers are now controlling the short-term move. However, the 4,087 – 4,103 area may decide whether this recovery continues or slows down.
For me, I prefer not to chase price directly into resistance. The cleaner plan is to wait for either a pullback into 4,038 for a buy reaction, or a breakout above 4,103 for continuation.
Gold is stronger today — but confirmation above 4,103 would make the recovery much cleaner.
Do you think gold can break above 4,103, or will sellers defend the 4,087 sell zone first?
Gold is showing a strong recovery from the lower buy zone.
After dropping close to the 4,000 area earlier, price reacted sharply from the 4,014 buy zone and is now trading around 4,077. This tells us that buyers are still active and the short-term structure has shifted into a cleaner recovery phase.
But the market is now moving into a sensitive area. Gold is approaching the 4,087 sell zone, and this is where sellers may try to react again.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains influenced by geopolitical tension and Fed expectations.
The recent U.S.–Iran headlines may keep safe-haven demand active, but rate expectations are still important. Traders currently see a low chance of a July rate hike, while the market still prices in the possibility of at least one hike later in the year.
This creates a mixed background: geopolitical risk may support gold, but a stronger USD or higher rate expectations can still limit upside.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold has reacted strongly from the buy zone around 4,014 and created bullish displacement into the upper part of the short-term rising channel.
The first support zone is now 4,038. If price pulls back and holds above this area, buyers may attempt another push higher.
The key resistance is 4,087. This area sits near the 1.618 extension and is marked as a sell zone on the chart. If gold rejects from this level, a pullback toward 4,038 may appear.
Above 4,087, the next liquidity area is around 4,103. A clean break above 4,103 would make the bullish continuation stronger and open the path for higher movement inside the channel.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,077
Buy zone: 4,014
Buy zone resistance / support: 4,038
Sell zone: 4,087
Strong liquidity: 4,103
Channel support: 4,038 – 4,014
Bullish continuation above: 4,103
Invalidation for recovery view: Below 4,014
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,038 or 4,014
Entry: Bullish reaction, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,014
TP1: 4,087
TP2: 4,103
TP3: Higher channel resistance if momentum expands
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,103
Target: Upper channel continuation
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: 4,087
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above 4,103
TP1: 4,038
TP2: 4,014
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,103, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is recovering well, but the next test is very close.
The reaction from 4,014 was strong, and buyers are now controlling the short-term move. However, the 4,087 – 4,103 area may decide whether this recovery continues or slows down.
For me, I prefer not to chase price directly into resistance. The cleaner plan is to wait for either a pullback into 4,038 for a buy reaction, or a breakout above 4,103 for continuation.
Gold is stronger today — but confirmation above 4,103 would make the recovery much cleaner.
Do you think gold can break above 4,103, or will sellers defend the 4,087 sell zone first?
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.