XAUUSD/GOLD 1H SELL SETUP – FOMC PROJECTION (18.06.26)
This setup is based on the expectation that the FOMC Economic Projections and Fed outlook remain hawkish, which could strengthen the USD and pressure Gold lower.
📌 Market Structure
The overall trend is still bearish (downtrend line intact).
Price made a strong spike toward Resistance R2 (4380 area) after the FOMC reaction.
A sharp sell-off followed, confirming that sellers are still active.
📌 Why the Sell Zone?
The highlighted zone around 4318 – 4322 contains:
✅ Previous Resistance (R1)
✅ Downtrend Line Retest
✅ Fibonacci 61.8% Retracement (4320.61)
✅ Psychological Retest Area
When multiple technical factors align in one zone, it becomes a high-probability reversal area.
📌 Trade Plan
Entry (Sell Zone):
4318 – 4322
Stop Loss:
Above 4350 (above resistance structure)
Take Profit Targets:
4301 (50% Fibonacci)
4288 Support
4233 Support S1 (main target)
📌 Risk-to-Reward
Risk: ~30 points
Reward: ~85 points
Approximate R:R = 1:2.8 to 1:3
📌 FOMC Fundamental View
If the Fed:
Maintains higher rates for longer
Raises inflation projections
Gives a hawkish outlook
➡️ USD Strengthens
➡️ Treasury Yields Rise
➡️ Gold Faces Selling Pressure
📌 Invalidation
This sell setup becomes invalid if:
Price closes strongly above 4350
Buyers break and hold above Resistance R2 (4380)
Summary
Bias: Bearish 📉
Sell Zone: 4318 – 4322
SL: 4350
TP1: 4301
TP2: 4288
TP3: 4233
This setup is based on the expectation that the FOMC Economic Projections and Fed outlook remain hawkish, which could strengthen the USD and pressure Gold lower.
📌 Market Structure
The overall trend is still bearish (downtrend line intact).
Price made a strong spike toward Resistance R2 (4380 area) after the FOMC reaction.
A sharp sell-off followed, confirming that sellers are still active.
📌 Why the Sell Zone?
The highlighted zone around 4318 – 4322 contains:
✅ Previous Resistance (R1)
✅ Downtrend Line Retest
✅ Fibonacci 61.8% Retracement (4320.61)
✅ Psychological Retest Area
When multiple technical factors align in one zone, it becomes a high-probability reversal area.
📌 Trade Plan
Entry (Sell Zone):
4318 – 4322
Stop Loss:
Above 4350 (above resistance structure)
Take Profit Targets:
4301 (50% Fibonacci)
4288 Support
4233 Support S1 (main target)
📌 Risk-to-Reward
Risk: ~30 points
Reward: ~85 points
Approximate R:R = 1:2.8 to 1:3
📌 FOMC Fundamental View
If the Fed:
Maintains higher rates for longer
Raises inflation projections
Gives a hawkish outlook
➡️ USD Strengthens
➡️ Treasury Yields Rise
➡️ Gold Faces Selling Pressure
📌 Invalidation
This sell setup becomes invalid if:
Price closes strongly above 4350
Buyers break and hold above Resistance R2 (4380)
Summary
Bias: Bearish 📉
Sell Zone: 4318 – 4322
SL: 4350
TP1: 4301
TP2: 4288
TP3: 4233
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.