XAUUSD – Gold Recovers Slightly, But Bearish Channel Still Controls Price
Gold is showing a small recovery at the beginning of the new week after the recent three-day decline. However, on the H1 chart, price is still moving inside a clear descending channel and remains below the SMA 200, which means the short-term structure has not confirmed a bullish reversal yet.
The current price is trading around 4,176, while the nearest resistance area sits around 4,220 – 4,238. As long as gold stays below this zone, sellers may continue to control the intraday structure.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term support as oil prices ease and geopolitical tensions show signs of cooling after new peace-related headlines.
However, the recovery is still limited. The U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations remain important drivers, so the technical structure should be followed carefully before confirming any stronger upside move.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has failed to hold the previous value area and is now trading inside a descending channel. The recent recovery attempt is still weak because price has not reclaimed the SMA 200 or the broken resistance zone.
The area around 4,220 – 4,238 is important because it contains the broken VL zone and the SMA 200. If price retests this area and rejects, it may create a clean sell continuation setup.
The current short-term support is around 4,137 – 4,121. If gold breaks below this area, sellers may push price toward the accumulation zone around 4,090 – 4,110.
Below that, the stronger buy reaction zones are around 4,053 and 4,023. These areas may create short-term bounces, but the main trend remains bearish while price stays inside the descending channel.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price area: 4,176
SMA 200 resistance: 4,238
Broken VL / resistance zone: 4,220 – 4,280
Strong support / sell continuation level: 4,137
Strong liquidity: 4,121
Accumulation zone: 4,090 – 4,110
Strong support – buy reaction: 4,053
Strong liquidity – buy reaction: 4,023
Descending channel resistance: 4,200 – 4,238
Invalidation area for sell view: Above 4,238 – 4,280
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario – Priority H1 View
If gold retests the 4,200 – 4,238 resistance area and shows rejection, I will watch for a sell continuation setup inside the descending channel.
Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,238
Entry Condition: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from resistance.
Stop Loss: Above 4,238 or above the nearest swing high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,137
TP2: 4,121
TP3: 4,053 – 4,023
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,121 with strong momentum, sellers may continue directly toward the lower buy reaction zones.
Sell Condition: Wait for a clean break below 4,121, then watch for retest and bearish rejection.
Target: 4,053 – 4,023
Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Buy is not the priority view while gold remains inside the descending channel. However, if price sweeps 4,053 – 4,023 and shows strong bullish reaction, a short-term bounce may appear.
Buy Zone: 4,053 – 4,023
Entry Condition: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,121
TP2: 4,137
TP3: 4,200
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,023, the buy reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is still bearish on H1. Although price is recovering slightly at the beginning of the week, the chart shows that gold remains below the SMA 200 and inside the descending channel.
The cleaner plan is to wait for price to retest resistance before looking for sell confirmation. The 4,200 – 4,238 area is the key zone where sellers may return. If this zone rejects, gold may continue lower toward 4,137, 4,121 and possibly the 4,053 – 4,023 buy reaction area.
Overall, gold is trying to stabilize, but the structure still favours sellers unless price breaks and holds above the SMA 200 and the broken VL zone.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,200 – 4,238, or will buyers manage to break the descending channel first?
Gold is showing a small recovery at the beginning of the new week after the recent three-day decline. However, on the H1 chart, price is still moving inside a clear descending channel and remains below the SMA 200, which means the short-term structure has not confirmed a bullish reversal yet.
The current price is trading around 4,176, while the nearest resistance area sits around 4,220 – 4,238. As long as gold stays below this zone, sellers may continue to control the intraday structure.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term support as oil prices ease and geopolitical tensions show signs of cooling after new peace-related headlines.
However, the recovery is still limited. The U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations remain important drivers, so the technical structure should be followed carefully before confirming any stronger upside move.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has failed to hold the previous value area and is now trading inside a descending channel. The recent recovery attempt is still weak because price has not reclaimed the SMA 200 or the broken resistance zone.
The area around 4,220 – 4,238 is important because it contains the broken VL zone and the SMA 200. If price retests this area and rejects, it may create a clean sell continuation setup.
The current short-term support is around 4,137 – 4,121. If gold breaks below this area, sellers may push price toward the accumulation zone around 4,090 – 4,110.
Below that, the stronger buy reaction zones are around 4,053 and 4,023. These areas may create short-term bounces, but the main trend remains bearish while price stays inside the descending channel.
KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH
Current price area: 4,176
SMA 200 resistance: 4,238
Broken VL / resistance zone: 4,220 – 4,280
Strong support / sell continuation level: 4,137
Strong liquidity: 4,121
Accumulation zone: 4,090 – 4,110
Strong support – buy reaction: 4,053
Strong liquidity – buy reaction: 4,023
Descending channel resistance: 4,200 – 4,238
Invalidation area for sell view: Above 4,238 – 4,280
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario – Priority H1 View
If gold retests the 4,200 – 4,238 resistance area and shows rejection, I will watch for a sell continuation setup inside the descending channel.
Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,238
Entry Condition: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from resistance.
Stop Loss: Above 4,238 or above the nearest swing high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,137
TP2: 4,121
TP3: 4,053 – 4,023
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,121 with strong momentum, sellers may continue directly toward the lower buy reaction zones.
Sell Condition: Wait for a clean break below 4,121, then watch for retest and bearish rejection.
Target: 4,053 – 4,023
Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Buy is not the priority view while gold remains inside the descending channel. However, if price sweeps 4,053 – 4,023 and shows strong bullish reaction, a short-term bounce may appear.
Buy Zone: 4,053 – 4,023
Entry Condition: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,121
TP2: 4,137
TP3: 4,200
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,023, the buy reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW ON GOLD
My current view for gold is still bearish on H1. Although price is recovering slightly at the beginning of the week, the chart shows that gold remains below the SMA 200 and inside the descending channel.
The cleaner plan is to wait for price to retest resistance before looking for sell confirmation. The 4,200 – 4,238 area is the key zone where sellers may return. If this zone rejects, gold may continue lower toward 4,137, 4,121 and possibly the 4,053 – 4,023 buy reaction area.
Overall, gold is trying to stabilize, but the structure still favours sellers unless price breaks and holds above the SMA 200 and the broken VL zone.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,200 – 4,238, or will buyers manage to break the descending channel first?
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.