Despite softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Gold failed to attract sustained buying interest. The decline in CPI briefly pressured the U.S. Dollar, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively shifting into safe-haven assets. Treasury yields have not declined enough to trigger a meaningful reallocation of capital toward Gold, while expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged. Today's PPI release and comments from Fed officials could provide additional direction, but for now, institutional flows continue to favor confirmation over anticipation.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
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👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.