From Kelly’s view, gold remains inside a clear bearish structure, with price continuing to respect the descending channel and form lower highs. Price is currently trading around 4,001, below the key corrective resistance zone.
The key idea is simple: the current rebound may represent a completed or nearly completed Wave (4). If sellers continue to defend the 4,015–4,025 sell zone, gold could resume Wave (5) toward 3,975, followed by the larger 3,895–3,905 target area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold continues to trade inside a descending channel after losing the previous strong support around 4,065–4,075.
The market has built a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, keeping the broader structure bearish.
The latest recovery reached the 4,015–4,025 area, where the chart marks the main sell zone and projected Wave (4) resistance.
As long as price remains below this area, sellers may keep control.
The first important downside level is 3,975. A confirmed break below this support could strengthen bearish momentum toward the lower channel and the projected Wave (5) completion zone around 3,895–3,905.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 3,995–4,005
◌ Main sell zone: 4,015–4,025
◌ Strong resistance: 4,065–4,075
◌ First support: 3,975
◌ Secondary target: 3,940–3,950
◌ Main target: 3,895–3,905
◌ Invalidation: Above 4,075
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bearish impulse started from the upper structure and pushed gold lower.
Wave (2): Price corrected higher but remained below the descending resistance structure.
Wave (3): The stronger bearish expansion pushed gold toward the 3,975 area.
Wave (4): The recent recovery may be completing around the 4,015–4,025 sell zone.
Wave (5): If sellers defend this resistance, the final bearish leg could break 3,975 and extend toward the 3,895–3,905 Fibonacci target zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: 4,015–4,025 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,075
Take Profit 1: 3,975
Take Profit 2: 3,940–3,950
Take Profit 3: 3,895–3,905
The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection from the Wave (4) sell zone rather than chase price lower around current levels.
A bearish reaction from 4,015–4,025, followed by a confirmed break below 3,975, would strengthen the continuation toward the projected Wave (5) target.
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks above 4,025 and holds, price could extend into a deeper correction toward 4,060–4,075 before sellers attempt to regain control.
◌ Invalidation
The immediate bearish setup would weaken if price gains sustained acceptance above 4,025.
A confirmed breakout above the 4,065–4,075 resistance zone would invalidate the preferred bearish Wave (5) structure and suggest that a larger recovery may be developing.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,015–4,025 sell zone, with 4,065–4,075 acting as the stronger structural resistance.
The key downside confirmation is 3,975. If sellers break this support, the bearish sequence could extend toward 3,940 before the larger 3,895–3,905 Wave (5) completion zone comes into focus.
Do you think gold will retest the 4,015–4,025 sell zone first, or break 3,975 directly toward 3,900?
Trade active
Gold completed the expected Wave 4 rebound, pushing into the 4,060–4,070 resistance area before sellers stepped back in. Price has since rejected from this zone and started moving lower, keeping the bearish scenario aligned with the previous plan.
From Kelly’s view, this reaction suggests Wave 5 may now be developing. As long as Gold remains below the 4,070–4,080 resistance zone, downside pressure could continue toward 3,975, with the broader 3,895–3,905 area remaining the projected Wave 5 completion target.
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.