Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still reacting around the EMA area, so the current move may be only a short-term consolidation before sellers attempt another push lower.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,304 after a strong rejection from the upper value range. Price is now consolidating near the EMA 34 and EMA 89 area, showing that the market is pausing before choosing the next direction.
The key zone to watch is 4,301 - 4,320. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, volume reaction, and short-term EMA structure. If price fails to hold above this area, sellers may regain control.
The stronger resistance remains around 4,359 - 4,382. As long as gold stays below this value range, the bearish view remains preferred.
If price breaks below the current EMA consolidation zone, the next downside levels are 4,257 and 4,219. A deeper bearish continuation may target the larger convergence support zone around 4,118 - 4,125.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,304
EMA consolidation zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Fibonacci retracement + volume zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Upper value range resistance: 4,359 - 4,382
First downside target: 4,257
Second downside target: 4,219
Major convergence support zone: 4,118 - 4,125
Invalidation area: above 4,382
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,301 - 4,320
Stop Loss: 4,382
Take Profit 1: 4,257
Take Profit 2: 4,219
Take Profit 3: 4,118 - 4,125
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to react around the 4,301 - 4,320 EMA and Fibonacci value zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or a lower high below the upper value range.
If price breaks below 4,257 with clear bearish momentum, the next downside focus will be 4,219. Below that, the larger target zone is 4,118 - 4,125.
Entry Conditions
Wait for rejection around 4,301 - 4,320.
Do not sell if price breaks strongly above the value zone.
A move below 4,257 confirms stronger bearish pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,382, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the upper value range and fails to reclaim stronger resistance. Price may continue to consolidate around the EMA zone in the short term, but if sellers defend 4,301 - 4,320, gold may continue lower toward 4,257, 4,219, and 4,118 - 4,125.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a clearer breakdown below the EMA consolidation zone?
Trade active
Profit of 800 pips from the sell signal; the scenario is still unfolding.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.