XAUUSD is trading around 4,125 after extending the bearish leg into the 4,112–4,128 Demand / Reaction Zone. H1 remains under pressure beneath the descending trendline, but price is approaching deeper structural demand where a liquidity sweep could create a cleaner recovery setup.
Gold fell to a two-month low on Wednesday, with spot gold around $4,114, as a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to pressure non-yielding bullion. Reuters
The latest FOMC minutes showed policymakers were divided on the rationale for September’s rate increase, but a more hawkish group remained concerned about demand-driven inflation and the need for further tightening. Most officials still see another rate hike as likely before year-end. Reuters
The dollar remains close to an 18-month high, while markets price only around a 19% probability of another hike at the next meeting, suggesting that December remains the more likely window for further tightening. Reuters
Technical View
The H1 structure remains bearish beneath the descending trendline, with repeated CHoCH and BOS formations confirming that sellers still control the broader delivery.
Price is now trading inside the 4,112–4,128 Demand / Reaction Zone.
This area may produce an initial reaction, but the cleaner liquidity location sits lower around the 4,065–4,082 Major Demand Zone.
A sweep into Major Demand followed by a strong reclaim, bullish rejection or MSS would provide stronger confirmation that the current bearish expansion is becoming exhausted.
If buyers respond, the first recovery objective is a return toward 4,112–4,128.
Above that, price must overcome the descending trendline before challenging the 4,168–4,184 Major Resistance Zone.
A sustained H1 reclaim above this resistance would expose the higher 4,210–4,225 Major Supply Zone.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,124.675
Demand / Reaction Zone: 4,112–4,128
Buy Priority / Major Demand: 4,065–4,082
Descending Trendline Resistance: 4,135–4,150
Major Resistance: 4,168–4,184
Major Supply: 4,210–4,225
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,065–4,082
Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep into Major Demand followed by bullish rejection, reclaim, higher-low formation or bullish MSS/CHoCH confirmation.
TP1: 4,112–4,128
TP2: 4,145–4,155
TP3: 4,168–4,184
Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,060 would weaken the recovery scenario.
Buy/Sell View
The preferred approach is not to chase longs around 4,125 while H1 remains below descending resistance.
A deeper pullback into 4,065–4,082 would provide the cleaner location to evaluate buyer strength.
If Major Demand holds and price later reclaims the descending trendline, the recovery structure improves significantly.
Important Note
The technical recovery setup is developing against a difficult macro backdrop. The Fed minutes still point to inflation concerns and the possibility of another rate increase this year, while the dollar and Treasury yields remain strong. Reuters
That means any H1 long should remain confirmation-based, particularly while price is below the descending trendline.
Final View
Gold remains bearish on the broader H1 structure, but price is moving toward an important liquidity and demand area.
The main scenario is a deeper sweep into 4,065–4,082 followed by confirmed bullish recovery, targeting 4,112–4,128 first and then 4,168–4,184 if momentum expands.
A clean reclaim above 4,168–4,184 would open the larger recovery path toward 4,210–4,225 Major Supply.
Can buyers defend Major Demand and build the next H1 recovery leg toward resistance?
Trade active
Recovery Plan Remains on Track
Gold moved in line with the recovery scenario after reacting from the 4,065–4,082 Major Demand Zone and rebounding roughly 68 points.
XAUUSD is now trading around 4,148, testing the descending H1 trendline after reclaiming the 4,112–4,128 Demand / Reaction Zone.
The recovery structure remains constructive, but price has not yet reached the main objective. The next key area is 4,168–4,184 Major Resistance.
At this stage, chasing longs is less attractive; a controlled retest and renewed bullish confirmation would provide the cleaner continuation setup.
Trade closed: target reached
Bullish Recovery Plan Reached Resistance
Gold moved cleanly in line with the recovery scenario after reacting from the 4,065–4,080 Major Demand Zone and reclaiming the 4,112–4,128 Demand / Reaction Zone.
Price then broke above the descending trendline and delivered roughly 91 points of upside, reaching the projected 4,170–4,185 Major Resistance Zone before extending toward 4,195.
The bullish recovery plan has therefore played out well. At this stage, chasing fresh longs is less attractive as price approaches 4,210–4,225 Major Supply. The next focus is whether 4,170–4,185 can hold as support.
Trading Gold the structured way — liquidity, order blocks, Ichimoku confluence
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Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+aYglWgKtiPdkMGI9
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading Gold the structured way — liquidity, order blocks, Ichimoku confluence
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+aYglWgKtiPdkMGI9
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+aYglWgKtiPdkMGI9
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.