Gold is still trading inside a bearish Elliott Wave structure after the strong selloff from the upper area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a wave (4) correction under resistance before continuing lower into wave (5).
The key idea is simple: gold is still below strong resistance, and if buyers fail to reclaim the upper zone, the next bearish target remains around 4,286.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,429, right near the upper side of the FVG support area. After the sharp drop, price has been moving sideways and building a small corrective structure.
The important resistance zone is around 4,455–4,470. This area may act as the wave (4) rejection zone. If price cannot break above it, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure.
Below the current price, the key support is near 4,397. If gold breaks below this level, the bearish wave (5) scenario becomes stronger, opening the way toward the lower liquidity area around 4,286–4,300.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,429
◌ Strong resistance / wave (4): 4,455–4,470
◌ FVG support zone: 4,365–4,430
◌ Key support: 4,397
◌ Main bearish target: 4,286–4,300
◌ Extended support zone: 4,270–4,310
◌ Bullish invalidation: above 4,507
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart is showing a possible bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave (1) started after the first rejection from the top.
Wave (2) created a recovery bounce but failed to make a stronger continuation.
Wave (3) pushed sharply lower into the FVG support zone.
Wave (4) is now forming as a sideways correction below resistance.
If sellers reject this area again, wave (5) may continue lower toward 4,286–4,300.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys at the current level. The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection below resistance or a confirmed breakdown below 4,397.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,455–4,470 if price gives bearish rejection from strong resistance
Stop Loss: Above 4,507
Take Profit 1: 4,397
Take Profit 2: 4,340–4,320
Take Profit 3: 4,286–4,300
Alternative entry
If gold breaks below 4,397 with strong bearish momentum, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,286 without waiting for a deeper pullback.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,507 and holds above that level. In that case, the wave (4) correction may extend higher and the wave (5) downside setup would need to be delayed.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the strong resistance zone. The current movement still looks more like a correction than a real bullish reversal.
If price rejects 4,455–4,470 or breaks below 4,397, gold may continue the wave (5) move toward 4,286–4,300.
Do you think gold will complete wave (5) first, or will buyers try to defend the FVG support again?
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Disclaimer
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.