From Kelly’s view, gold remains inside a clear bearish structure and continues to respect the descending channel. Price is currently trading around 4,035 after rejecting from the 4,055–4,065 resistance area, where the projected Wave (4) and FVG sell zone overlap.
The key idea is simple: as long as gold remains below the 4,050–4,065 sell zone, the broader structure may favor another bearish leg toward 3,989, 3,976, and eventually the 3,895–3,905 Wave (5) target area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold continues to form lower highs and lower lows inside the descending channel.
The recent recovery from the 3,980 area pushed price back toward 4,060, but buyers failed to break the upper bearish structure. The rejection from this region suggests the corrective Wave (4) may already be completing.
The main resistance now sits around 4,050–4,065, where the descending trendline, FVG, and horizontal resistance converge.
Below current price, 3,989 is the first important liquidity level. The stronger structural support is located around 3,975–3,980.
If sellers break both areas with confirmation, the next major objective becomes the 3,895–3,905 zone, where the lower channel and projected Wave (5) completion overlap.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,030–4,040
◌ Main sell zone: 4,050–4,065
◌ Strong resistance: 4,060–4,070
◌ Liquidity support: 3,989
◌ Strong support: 3,975–3,980
◌ First target: 3,989
◌ Second target: 3,975–3,980
◌ Main target: 3,895–3,905
◌ Invalidation: Above 4,070
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bearish impulse pushed gold lower from the upper channel structure.
Wave (2): Price produced a corrective rebound but failed to change the broader bearish trend.
Wave (3): The stronger bearish leg extended toward the 3,975–3,980 area.
Wave (4): Gold recovered toward the 4,055–4,065 resistance and FVG sell zone, where sellers reacted again.
Wave (5): If the rejection continues, the final bearish leg may break 3,989 and 3,976, then extend toward the 3,895–3,905 Fibonacci target zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: 4,050–4,065 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,070
Take Profit 1: 3,989
Take Profit 2: 3,975–3,980
Take Profit 3: 3,895–3,905
The cleaner plan is to wait for a corrective retest into the FVG sell zone rather than chase price lower around current levels.
A bearish rejection from 4,050–4,065, followed by a confirmed break below 3,989, would strengthen the Wave (5) continuation scenario. A loss of 3,975 could then open the path toward the lower channel target around 3,900.
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks above 4,065 and gains sustained acceptance above the descending trendline, the immediate Wave (5) setup may be delayed and a deeper corrective recovery could develop.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish scenario would weaken if price holds above the 4,050–4,065 resistance structure.
A confirmed breakout above 4,070 would invalidate the preferred Wave (4) rejection setup and suggest that gold may require a deeper recovery before the next bearish leg develops.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,050–4,070 resistance zone.
The first downside confirmation is 3,989, followed by the stronger 3,975–3,980 support. If sellers break both levels, the projected Wave (5) may extend toward the larger 3,895–3,905 target zone, where a stronger reaction could later appear.
Do you think gold will retest the 4,050–4,065 FVG sell zone first, or break 3,989 directly toward 3,900?
Trade active
Gold has completed a clear Wave 4 pullback into the 4,050–4,060 resistance / FVG sell zone, where price started showing renewed bearish pressure. From Kelly’s view, this reaction keeps the broader downside structure intact and supports the idea that Wave 5 may now be starting.
As long as Gold remains below the 4,060–4,070 resistance area, sellers could continue targeting 3,989 and 3,975 first. A deeper extension may bring price toward the projected 3,895–3,905 Wave 5 completion zone.
Trade closed: target reached
Gold continued to move lower exactly in line with the previous bearish plan, confirming the development of Wave 5 after rejection from the upper sell zone. Price has now broken below the 3,900 Wave 5 target area and extended toward the 3,875 region, showing that sellers still maintain control.
From Kelly’s view, the bearish structure remains valid, but with price already deep into Wave 5, I would now watch closely for signs of exhaustion before expecting a stronger corrective ABC rebound.
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.