XAUUSD: NFP DAY

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Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.

I've been studying Gold since 2019.

My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.

I need your support.
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Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.

🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞

🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍

Yesterday, Gold started moving higher shortly before the ADP release.

After that, it paused and then gained further bullish momentum during the New York session, helped by Waller's speech, reaching the intraday structural area that triggered the last daily break.

After yesterday's weak ADP report, it's reasonable to expect a weaker NFP as well, which could support another bullish move in Gold in the short term.

Everything will depend on today's data. Based on the outcome, I'll look for the best positioning.

That said, the daily trend is still bearish, and the main higher-timeframe resistance remains around 4200.

It's impossible to predict with certainty, but this is the scenario I'm considering:

🟢 50% → NFP below 110K (bullish for Gold)

🟡 35% → NFP between 110K and 140K (mixed reaction, depending on unemployment and wages)

🔴 15% → NFP above 140K (bearish for Gold)

Also, don't forget the other two important figures:

Unemployment Rate: higher than expected = bullish for Gold.

Average Hourly Earnings: slower wage growth = bullish for Gold.

Faster wage growth could offset a weak NFP and limit or even reverse a bullish reaction.

Following yesterday's ADP report, I think the probabilities slightly favor an NFP that supports Gold.

However, wage data could be the deciding factor.

See you all at 14:00.

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📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.

🔍 Reminder 🔍

I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.

My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.

In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.

HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT

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