Market Context
Gold remains under pressure after the latest U.S. inflation and growth data reinforced a higher-for-longer Fed outlook. September PCE rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY, while core PCE increased 3.1% YoY. Q3 GDP also expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace. The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two officials favoring a 25bp hike. This macro backdrop keeps downside pressure relevant for Gold, although softer USD and yields can still create short-term rebounds.
SMC View
The H1 structure remains bearish beneath Dynamic Bearish Resistance. Price has printed repeated MSS and BOS sequences, while the latest recovery failed to reclaim the 4,007.878 Reclaimed Supply area.
Current price is testing the 3,980–3,990 Internal SSL zone. A corrective rebound into reclaimed supply would provide the cleaner location to evaluate renewed bearish displacement.
Main Trading Scenario
Sell Priority: Reclaimed Supply around 4,008
If price retraces into the 4,007.878 Reclaimed Supply area and rejects with bearish displacement, the bearish structure could resume toward the 3,980–3,990 Internal SSL and potentially the 3,940–3,950 Potential Bullish Reaction zone.
The sell thesis weakens if price decisively reclaims the 4,032 Premium POI and sustains above the Dynamic Bearish Resistance.
Key Zones to Watch
4,032: Premium POI / major bearish invalidation area
4,007.878: Reclaimed Supply
3,980–3,990: Internal SSL
3,940–3,950: Potential Bullish Reaction
Prime Gold View
The broader structure remains bearish while price stays below Dynamic Bearish Resistance and 4,032. The preferred setup is to wait for a corrective retracement into Reclaimed Supply rather than chase price near Internal SSL. Confirmation remains essential before continuation is considered.
Gold remains under pressure after the latest U.S. inflation and growth data reinforced a higher-for-longer Fed outlook. September PCE rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY, while core PCE increased 3.1% YoY. Q3 GDP also expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace. The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two officials favoring a 25bp hike. This macro backdrop keeps downside pressure relevant for Gold, although softer USD and yields can still create short-term rebounds.
SMC View
The H1 structure remains bearish beneath Dynamic Bearish Resistance. Price has printed repeated MSS and BOS sequences, while the latest recovery failed to reclaim the 4,007.878 Reclaimed Supply area.
Current price is testing the 3,980–3,990 Internal SSL zone. A corrective rebound into reclaimed supply would provide the cleaner location to evaluate renewed bearish displacement.
Main Trading Scenario
Sell Priority: Reclaimed Supply around 4,008
If price retraces into the 4,007.878 Reclaimed Supply area and rejects with bearish displacement, the bearish structure could resume toward the 3,980–3,990 Internal SSL and potentially the 3,940–3,950 Potential Bullish Reaction zone.
The sell thesis weakens if price decisively reclaims the 4,032 Premium POI and sustains above the Dynamic Bearish Resistance.
Key Zones to Watch
4,032: Premium POI / major bearish invalidation area
4,007.878: Reclaimed Supply
3,980–3,990: Internal SSL
3,940–3,950: Potential Bullish Reaction
Prime Gold View
The broader structure remains bearish while price stays below Dynamic Bearish Resistance and 4,032. The preferred setup is to wait for a corrective retracement into Reclaimed Supply rather than chase price near Internal SSL. Confirmation remains essential before continuation is considered.
Trade closed: target reached
Gold followed the bearish plan as expected. Price remained capped below the 4,032 Premium POI and continued respecting the Dynamic Bearish Resistance, while the bearish MSS and BOS structure supported further downside delivery. The breakdown through the 3,980–3,990 Internal SSL accelerated the move toward the 3,940–3,950 Potential Bullish Reaction zone. Price has now reached the projected area with roughly 70 points of downside movement. From here, attention shifts to whether this zone produces a bullish displacement or whether sellers continue to control the structure.
Gold · SMC · 5+ years. t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Gold · SMC · 5+ years. t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+FW9zrQ39GoczMzFl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.