Gold is trading around 4,033 on the H1 chart. Price is testing the dynamic bullish support after failing to sustain the recovery, while the broader structure remains vulnerable below the major resistance zone.
Market Drivers
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but two policymakers preferred a 25bp hike and the Fed noted that inflation remains elevated. Gold weakened after the decision as markets continued to assess the possibility of tighter policy later this year. Today’s U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE releases could further shift rate expectations and USD/yield pressure on Gold.
Technical
The H1 recovery is losing momentum beneath the descending resistance structure. 4,051.107 is the potential lower-high area, while 4,025.373 is the key breakdown trigger.
Below this level, the chart opens room toward 3,986.921 Major Structure Support. The larger recovery remains capped by 4,081.703 Major Breakdown Resistance.
Main Scenario
The main scenario remains bearish while price stays below 4,051.107.
A rejection around the lower-high area followed by an H1 break below 4,025.373 could drive Gold toward 3,986.921.
Invalidation
A sustained H1 reclaim above 4,051.107 would weaken the immediate bearish structure. A breakout above 4,081.703 would invalidate the current downside thesis.
Tiara’s View
The key decision is around 4,025. Holding above it may keep the rebound alive, but a confirmed breakdown would favor a move toward 3,987. The 4,051–4,082 area remains the main resistance barrier for any recovery.
Trade active
Gold is moving in line with the bearish scenario after losing the 4,025 breakdown trigger and failing to reclaim the rising dynamic support. Price is now trading near 4,006, showing that sellers still control the short-term structure below the 4,039–4,051 potential lower-high zone. As long as Gold remains capped beneath that resistance, downside pressure can stay active toward the 3,987 major structure support. A stronger recovery would require price to reclaim 4,025 first and then break above 4,051.
Trade closed: target reached
Gold continued to follow the bearish plan after losing the 4,025 breakdown trigger and remaining below the 4,039–4,051 lower-high resistance zone. Sellers extended the move directly into the 3,986 major structure support, completing the main downside objective. Price is now trading around 3,983, so this area becomes the next key decision point. A reaction from support could trigger a short-term recovery, while continued acceptance below 3,986 would keep the broader bearish pressure active.
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🌸Tiara PrimeGold·XAUUSD·Price Action made simple
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Daily analysis update real time London & NY session
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🔔Follow to learn one new thing every day
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t.me/+9K3kUAe9Y0kzYzA1
Daily analysis update real time London & NY session
t.me/+9K3kUAe9Y0kzYzA1
🔔Follow to learn one new thing every day
Personal analysis only—not financial advice
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.