Gold is stabilizing after last week's heavy sell-off as traders await this week's key U.S. inflation (CPI) data and additional Federal Reserve commentary. Markets remain cautious because stronger inflation could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting the U.S. Dollar and limiting gold's upside.
From an ICT perspective, XAUUSD is showing early signs of intraday accumulation. Price has reclaimed internal market structure (BOS) and is consolidating just beneath a descending trendline, suggesting buyers are attempting to build momentum toward external liquidity.
The current reaction is taking place above a small Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 4000-4005, which serves as the nearest mitigation zone. As long as this imbalance remains respected, buyers may continue targeting the premium supply resting near 4055-4060, where the descending trendline and higher-timeframe liquidity converge.
However, this resistance area is likely to be defended by institutional sellers. A rejection from the trendline could trigger another liquidity sweep back toward the 3980-3985 demand zone before any larger directional move develops.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred)
Hold above 4000-4005 (FVG)
Break the descending trendline
Target 4055-4060 Major Supply
Bearish Scenario
Reject from trendline resistance
Lose 4000 FVG
Retest 3980-3985 Institutional Demand
Key Levels
🔴 Resistance: 4055-4060
🟢 Support (FVG): 4000-4005
🔵 Major Demand: 3980-3985
Bias: Intraday bullish while price holds above the 4000 FVG. Price is engineering liquidity beneath HTF trendline resistance, with buy-side liquidity resting near 4055-4060. A confirmed breakout favors continuation into premium supply, while rejection from trendline may deliver liquidity back toward the 3980 institutional demand. Wait for confirmation around liquidity zones before following expansion.
Trade closed: target reached
+904pip - Gold strengthened as U.S. CPI unexpectedly declined, reducing expectations of near-term Fed tightening. A weaker USD and falling Treasury yields supported the move, but I'm watching whether follow-through buying can confirm a sustained bullish recovery beyond the post-CPI reaction.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.