After a series of consecutive breaks of the upward trendlines on the D1 frame, gold has officially lost its previous buying structure and shifted to a distribution → markdown state. Notably, recent recoveries have been weak, unable to reclaim lost structural areas, while declines have been swift and decisive. This is a typical characteristic of a market that has shifted to a bearish phase, where large capital flows prioritize exiting positions rather than accumulating.
On the macroeconomic front, pressure from the USD maintaining its strength along with expectations of continued monetary tightening is laying the foundation for gold's downward trend. However, the more important factor lies in how the market reacts: even when supportive information appears, prices still cannot maintain upward momentum. This indicates that buying power is no longer strong enough to control the market, and the current structure clearly reflects a dominant bearish bias.
On the D1 frame, gold has formed a series of lower highs – lower lows, simultaneously breaking important demand zones, turning them into supply. The price is currently in the process of retesting the confluence area between the old demand, trendline, and FVG – this is a decisive area, acting as a medium-term supply zone. If it cannot surpass this area, the market is likely to continue expanding the decline to lower liquidity zones.
In the main scenario, if the price cannot reclaim the 4600–4700 zone, the downward trend will continue to be reinforced with targets sequentially at 4300 → 4100, and further to the 4000 zone – where large liquidity is concentrated on the medium-term frame. Conversely, in the secondary scenario, if the price recovers to the 4700–4800 zone, this is likely just a pullback to the supply zone before continuing the main downward trend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO 23/03
Main scenario (HIGH PROBABILITY – SELL CONTINUATION):
• Price does not reclaim the 4600 – 4700 zone
→ continues breakdown to 4300 → 4100
→ further to the large liquidity zone around 4000
Secondary scenario (RETEST – TRAP):
• If the price recovers to the 4700 – 4800 zone
→ just a pullback to supply
→ continues to be sold down according to the main trend
Overall, the market is currently in a clear transition phase from buying to bearish, with both structure and capital flow supporting the bearish scenario. Recoveries should be seen as opportunities to join the trend, rather than expecting a reversal. In this context, the appropriate strategy remains to prioritize SELL according to important retest zones, while monitoring price reactions at decisive points to confirm the continuation of the trend in the coming week.
On the macroeconomic front, pressure from the USD maintaining its strength along with expectations of continued monetary tightening is laying the foundation for gold's downward trend. However, the more important factor lies in how the market reacts: even when supportive information appears, prices still cannot maintain upward momentum. This indicates that buying power is no longer strong enough to control the market, and the current structure clearly reflects a dominant bearish bias.
On the D1 frame, gold has formed a series of lower highs – lower lows, simultaneously breaking important demand zones, turning them into supply. The price is currently in the process of retesting the confluence area between the old demand, trendline, and FVG – this is a decisive area, acting as a medium-term supply zone. If it cannot surpass this area, the market is likely to continue expanding the decline to lower liquidity zones.
In the main scenario, if the price cannot reclaim the 4600–4700 zone, the downward trend will continue to be reinforced with targets sequentially at 4300 → 4100, and further to the 4000 zone – where large liquidity is concentrated on the medium-term frame. Conversely, in the secondary scenario, if the price recovers to the 4700–4800 zone, this is likely just a pullback to the supply zone before continuing the main downward trend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO 23/03
Main scenario (HIGH PROBABILITY – SELL CONTINUATION):
• Price does not reclaim the 4600 – 4700 zone
→ continues breakdown to 4300 → 4100
→ further to the large liquidity zone around 4000
Secondary scenario (RETEST – TRAP):
• If the price recovers to the 4700 – 4800 zone
→ just a pullback to supply
→ continues to be sold down according to the main trend
Overall, the market is currently in a clear transition phase from buying to bearish, with both structure and capital flow supporting the bearish scenario. Recoveries should be seen as opportunities to join the trend, rather than expecting a reversal. In this context, the appropriate strategy remains to prioritize SELL according to important retest zones, while monitoring price reactions at decisive points to confirm the continuation of the trend in the coming week.
Trade active
UPDATE D1 | BREAKDOWN ACCELERATING – MARKET IN MARKDOWNPrice has decisively broken through the entire demand zone of 4400–4500 and continues a strong displacement downward, confirming the accelerating downtrend. This is no longer a retest phase — the market has clearly entered a markdown phase.
Currently:
Structure is completely controlled by the downtrend
No bullish BOS
Support zones are continuously breached
👉 The previous wick was merely a liquidity sweep + buyer trap, not a reversal signal.
Price is heading straight towards the next support zone around 4100–4200, where a technical reaction may occur. However, with the current momentum, it is highly likely this will only be a temporary stop before continuing to decline further.
Overall:
Trend is your friend — and the trend is clearly bearish.
Unless there is a reclaim of the 4500–4600 zone, the market still favors the scenario:
👉 Sell → pullback → continue to sell
Follow liquidity — not the news.
Trade closed: target reached
UPDATE D1 | LIQUIDITY TAKEN – CONTROL STILL BEARISHPrice has touched the support zone at 4100 and bounced back around 4300 — typical behavior after a liquidity sweep downwards. Liquidity has been taken, and market reaction is normal.
But the important thing is not in the bounce, but in the structure:
No bullish BOS
Hasn't reclaimed the 4500–4600 zone
The entire structure is still lower high – lower low
This indicates that the current recovery is just a technical pullback, not a sign of reversal.
In this context, if the price cannot break and hold above the 4500 zone, then every recovery is an opportunity for capital to continue distributing and pushing the price lower.
👉 Market has taken liquidity — but the trend hasn’t changed.
Note
UPDATE H4 | REJECTION CONFIRMS BEARISH CONTINUATIONPrice wicks up to the descending trendline → fails breakout → strongly rejected at 4500 and continues to drop to 43xx, as expected.
Fake breakout → traps buyers
Does not reclaim 4500–4600
Structure remains lower high
👉 The rebound is just a pullback, the main trend is still down.
If it loses 43xx → high probability of continuing to 4100.
Note
UPDATE H4 | TRENDLINE RESPECTED – BEARISH FLOW INTACTThe price continues to move according to the established bias: retracing to the downtrend trendline area → reacting → and continuing to be rejected to move downwards. There are no signs indicating that the buying force is strong enough to break the current structure.
The price behavior is very clear according to the logic of cash flow:
Retest trendline + supply
No displacement upwards
And quickly turning downwards
This confirms that the trendline is still acting as a dynamic resistance, and every retracement is just an opportunity for the market to redistribute before continuing the markdown.
The current structure remains lower high – lower low, with no bullish BOS, and no reclaim of the important area above. Therefore, the bearish trend still completely dominates.
In this context, if the price continues to stay below the 4400–4500 area, there is a high possibility that the market will extend the downtrend to the 4100 area — where the next liquidity is waiting.
👉 Market is not reversing — it’s respecting structure.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.