XAUUSD – Gold Pushes Higher, But The FVG Retest Will Decide The Next Move
Gold is showing a stronger bullish recovery after breaking above the previous descending trendline.
Price is currently trading around 4,129, after a clean upside move from the lower support area near 4,045. Buyers are clearly more active now, and the structure has shifted from defensive recovery into a stronger short-term bullish continuation.
However, gold is now approaching a sensitive area. After such a strong move, a pullback into the Buy Order FVG zone may be needed before the next push higher.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving follow-through buying as traders continue to watch U.S.–Iran developments and broader geopolitical risk.
At the same time, higher oil prices can keep inflation concerns alive, which may support expectations for a tighter Fed outlook and strengthen the U.S. dollar. This can limit gold’s upside in the short term.
For now, the fundamental picture is mixed, but the chart is showing stronger buyer control. The key is whether gold can hold the FVG support after the breakout.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has broken above the previous bearish trendline and created a strong bullish displacement. This is an important structural change because sellers are no longer controlling price the same way they did last week.
The current Buy Order FVG zone is around 4,102 – 4,116. This area is very important because it may act as the next support if price pulls back. As long as gold holds above this zone, buyers may continue to target the higher resistance area.
The nearest strong support sits around 4,045. This is the level that protected the previous move and helped create the current bullish recovery.
Above current price, the main target resistance is around 4,202 – 4,209. This area aligns with Fibonacci extension and previous resistance, making it the next major test for buyers.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,129
Buy Order FVG zone: 4,102 – 4,116
Strong support: 4,045
Near resistance: 4,140
Target resistance: 4,202 – 4,209
Fibonacci extension target: 4,209
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,102
Invalidation for bullish recovery: Below 4,045
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,102 – 4,116
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,102 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,140
TP2: 4,202
TP3: 4,209
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,140
Target: 4,202 – 4,209
Sell Scenario
Sell is not the priority while gold remains above the Buy Order FVG.
Sell Zone: 4,202 – 4,209
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,140
TP2: 4,116
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,209, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is recovering with stronger momentum.
The breakout above the descending trendline is a positive sign for buyers, but I do not want to chase price too high after a strong move. The cleaner setup is to watch whether gold can retest and hold the 4,102 – 4,116 Buy Order FVG zone.
If this zone holds, the path toward 4,202 – 4,209 remains open.
If buyers fail to defend the FVG and price returns below 4,045, the bullish recovery becomes weaker.
For now, gold is showing strength — but the FVG retest will decide whether this move can continue.
Do you think gold will hold the 4,102 – 4,116 FVG and continue toward 4,209?
Gold is showing a stronger bullish recovery after breaking above the previous descending trendline.
Price is currently trading around 4,129, after a clean upside move from the lower support area near 4,045. Buyers are clearly more active now, and the structure has shifted from defensive recovery into a stronger short-term bullish continuation.
However, gold is now approaching a sensitive area. After such a strong move, a pullback into the Buy Order FVG zone may be needed before the next push higher.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving follow-through buying as traders continue to watch U.S.–Iran developments and broader geopolitical risk.
At the same time, higher oil prices can keep inflation concerns alive, which may support expectations for a tighter Fed outlook and strengthen the U.S. dollar. This can limit gold’s upside in the short term.
For now, the fundamental picture is mixed, but the chart is showing stronger buyer control. The key is whether gold can hold the FVG support after the breakout.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has broken above the previous bearish trendline and created a strong bullish displacement. This is an important structural change because sellers are no longer controlling price the same way they did last week.
The current Buy Order FVG zone is around 4,102 – 4,116. This area is very important because it may act as the next support if price pulls back. As long as gold holds above this zone, buyers may continue to target the higher resistance area.
The nearest strong support sits around 4,045. This is the level that protected the previous move and helped create the current bullish recovery.
Above current price, the main target resistance is around 4,202 – 4,209. This area aligns with Fibonacci extension and previous resistance, making it the next major test for buyers.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,129
Buy Order FVG zone: 4,102 – 4,116
Strong support: 4,045
Near resistance: 4,140
Target resistance: 4,202 – 4,209
Fibonacci extension target: 4,209
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,102
Invalidation for bullish recovery: Below 4,045
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,102 – 4,116
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,102 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,140
TP2: 4,202
TP3: 4,209
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,140
Target: 4,202 – 4,209
Sell Scenario
Sell is not the priority while gold remains above the Buy Order FVG.
Sell Zone: 4,202 – 4,209
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,140
TP2: 4,116
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,209, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is recovering with stronger momentum.
The breakout above the descending trendline is a positive sign for buyers, but I do not want to chase price too high after a strong move. The cleaner setup is to watch whether gold can retest and hold the 4,102 – 4,116 Buy Order FVG zone.
If this zone holds, the path toward 4,202 – 4,209 remains open.
If buyers fail to defend the FVG and price returns below 4,045, the bullish recovery becomes weaker.
For now, gold is showing strength — but the FVG retest will decide whether this move can continue.
Do you think gold will hold the 4,102 – 4,116 FVG and continue toward 4,209?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.