Gold's recovery has lost its pivot. A bearish CHoCH followed by BOS now puts the recent low back in focus.
The next test is whether buyers can defend 3,976.009 or whether the decline extends toward the chart's major target.
MARKET OVERVIEW
The latest PCE release reinforced concern about persistent inflation and further Fed tightening.
This backdrop keeps gold sensitive to changes in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technical confirmation remains essential around the recent lows.
H1 TECHNICAL CONTEXT
The recovery from the marked weak low reached primary overhead supply but failed to establish sustained acceptance above it.
Price subsequently broke beneath the retest and S/R pivot.
The bearish CHoCH and subsequent BOS show that sellers have regained control of the internal structure.
Price is now testing 3,994.529 beneath the psychological 4,000 level. A brief reaction here would not, by itself, repair the broken recovery structure.
KEY LEVELS
• Swing high / Fibonacci 1.0: 4,142.318.
• Primary overhead supply: approximately 4,074–4,088.
• Retest & S/R pivot: approximately 4,024–4,035.
• Psychological reference: 4,000.
• Chart snapshot: 3,996.975.
• Immediate structural reference: 3,994.529.
• Weak low: 3,976.009.
• Major target zone: approximately 3,920–3,931.
Unlabelled zone boundaries are estimated from the chart scale.
BEARISH SCENARIO — CONFIRM THE NEXT BREAK
IF price establishes acceptance below 3,994.529 and fails to reclaim it, THEN another test of 3,976.009 becomes more plausible.
A bearish M15 displacement followed by an unsuccessful retest would provide additional execution confirmation.
TP1: 3,976.009.
A sustained H1 close below that low, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen continuation toward the major target.
TP2: Approximately 3,920–3,931.
The projected bounce between the weak low and the deeper target is possible, but its timing and size remain unconfirmed.
For a breakdown entry below 3,976.009, the broken low becomes a retest reference rather than a fresh downside target.
BULLISH ALTERNATIVE — SWEEP AND RECLAIM
IF price sweeps below 3,994.529 or 3,976.009, then recovers the broken level with bullish M15 confirmation, THEN a corrective bounce could develop.
Initial recovery reference: 4,000.
Next major recovery test: Approximately 4,024–4,035.
Buyers would need an H1 close above the pivot and a defended retest to weaken the current bearish structure.
Acceptance above 4,035 would bring the overhead supply zone back into focus.
INVALIDATION
An H1 close above 4,035 followed by a successful support retest would invalidate the immediate pivot-rejection thesis.
For an entry based on a failed reclaim of a broken low, the execution stop must follow the actual confirmation swing.
An H1 close above 4,088 would undermine a broader bearish setup anchored to primary supply.
MMFLOW VIEW
The structure supports conditional bearish continuation, but price is already approaching the first downside objective.
The useful distinction is between a sustained breakdown and a temporary sweep followed by recovery.
Let the response at 3,976.009 determine whether the deeper target gains relevance.
The next test is whether buyers can defend 3,976.009 or whether the decline extends toward the chart's major target.
MARKET OVERVIEW
The latest PCE release reinforced concern about persistent inflation and further Fed tightening.
This backdrop keeps gold sensitive to changes in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technical confirmation remains essential around the recent lows.
H1 TECHNICAL CONTEXT
The recovery from the marked weak low reached primary overhead supply but failed to establish sustained acceptance above it.
Price subsequently broke beneath the retest and S/R pivot.
The bearish CHoCH and subsequent BOS show that sellers have regained control of the internal structure.
Price is now testing 3,994.529 beneath the psychological 4,000 level. A brief reaction here would not, by itself, repair the broken recovery structure.
KEY LEVELS
• Swing high / Fibonacci 1.0: 4,142.318.
• Primary overhead supply: approximately 4,074–4,088.
• Retest & S/R pivot: approximately 4,024–4,035.
• Psychological reference: 4,000.
• Chart snapshot: 3,996.975.
• Immediate structural reference: 3,994.529.
• Weak low: 3,976.009.
• Major target zone: approximately 3,920–3,931.
Unlabelled zone boundaries are estimated from the chart scale.
BEARISH SCENARIO — CONFIRM THE NEXT BREAK
IF price establishes acceptance below 3,994.529 and fails to reclaim it, THEN another test of 3,976.009 becomes more plausible.
A bearish M15 displacement followed by an unsuccessful retest would provide additional execution confirmation.
TP1: 3,976.009.
A sustained H1 close below that low, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen continuation toward the major target.
TP2: Approximately 3,920–3,931.
The projected bounce between the weak low and the deeper target is possible, but its timing and size remain unconfirmed.
For a breakdown entry below 3,976.009, the broken low becomes a retest reference rather than a fresh downside target.
BULLISH ALTERNATIVE — SWEEP AND RECLAIM
IF price sweeps below 3,994.529 or 3,976.009, then recovers the broken level with bullish M15 confirmation, THEN a corrective bounce could develop.
Initial recovery reference: 4,000.
Next major recovery test: Approximately 4,024–4,035.
Buyers would need an H1 close above the pivot and a defended retest to weaken the current bearish structure.
Acceptance above 4,035 would bring the overhead supply zone back into focus.
INVALIDATION
An H1 close above 4,035 followed by a successful support retest would invalidate the immediate pivot-rejection thesis.
For an entry based on a failed reclaim of a broken low, the execution stop must follow the actual confirmation swing.
An H1 close above 4,088 would undermine a broader bearish setup anchored to primary supply.
MMFLOW VIEW
The structure supports conditional bearish continuation, but price is already approaching the first downside objective.
The useful distinction is between a sustained breakdown and a temporary sweep followed by recovery.
Let the response at 3,976.009 determine whether the deeper target gains relevance.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action
🔥Live Market Updates-Realtime Trading Plans & Signal
t.me/+sBwjxIJbdoFmNjk1
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 16 Signals VIP
MMFLOW gives you precision entries & BIGWIN profits
🔥Live Market Updates-Realtime Trading Plans & Signal
t.me/+sBwjxIJbdoFmNjk1
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 16 Signals VIP
MMFLOW gives you precision entries & BIGWIN profits
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.