After the previous strong decline, gold is currently holding steady above the H4 trendline and shifting to a balanced state on the H2 frame, fluctuating in the 5000–5050 range. This is a typical accumulation phase as the market absorbs previous selling pressure and awaits a new catalyst to expand the range.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline + short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline + short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
Trade active
GOLD UPDATE | H2 REJECTION AT TRENDLINE + FIBO
The price has hit the confluence zone of the H2 trendline + Fibo (0.5–0.618) and immediately showed a rejection reaction, indicating that selling pressure still controls the short-term structure. The recent recovery was technical, and this area continues to play an important role as intraday supply.
The inability to break above the 5050–5060 zone further supports the bearish continuation scenario, as the price remains below the main descending trendline and is continuously rejected at the upper FVG zones.
In the short term, if this area is not reclaimed, gold may continue to push down to retest support at 4980 → 4950, and further down to deeper liquidity zones below.
➡️ Overall: nice retest – clear rejection – bias remains SELL according to the trend.
Trade closed: target reached
SELL TRENDLINE H2 + FIBO RUNNING 500 PIP. Nice plan
Note
GOLD UPDATE 17/03 | SELL REACTION FROM H2 TRENDLINE
The price followed the bias when it touched the H2 trendline + Fibo area (0.5 – 0.618) → clear downward reaction, continuing to confirm the short-term bearish structure. After the rejection, gold returned to retest the support area below (~496x – 498x) and is showing signs of price holding, indicating the market is still in a compressed sideways state within the range.
Currently, the price is caught between:
Supply above (trendline + Fibo)
Support below (liquidity area 496x – 498x)
→ This is a balanced area, where the cash flow is waiting for a breakout to determine the next direction.
Main scenario:
• Unable to break the 5050+ area → continue to be pushed down, retest 496x → deeper could go to 4900
Secondary scenario:
• Break above the H2 trendline area → could recover to 5080 – 5100 (FVG + higher fibo)
→ Current bias: SELL within the range, prioritize selling the upper area
🚨 The market is compressing – the longer it compresses, the stronger the breakout
This is the decisive area to see if gold breaks the range or continues the medium-term downtrend.
👉 Follow to update PLAN 18/03:
Will gold break down to confirm the downtrend or is it just a fakeout before reversing?
Note
GOLD 18/03 UPDATE | PLAN HIT PERFECTLY – MARKET NOW AT LIQUIDITY ZONEThe 18/03 plan followed the SELL bias completely from the trendline area 501x. The price only created a weak technical rebound at the retest structure area, then broke down strongly, sweeping all the liquidity below and hitting the exact target area of 483x–485x as the main scenario.
This was a very "clean" move according to the SMC logic: from retest supply → failed breakout → strong displacement downward. There were no signs of reversal throughout the decline, indicating that the sellers completely controlled the cash flow. The scenario was correct not only in direction but also in timing and price area — a textbook setup.
Currently, the market is reacting at the 483x–485x area, which is an important liquidity zone on H4. After sweeping the liquidity below, the price is starting to show signs of pausing and a slight rebound reaction is appearing. However, it must be emphasized that this is only a reaction at liquidity, with no confirmation of a structural reversal.
In this context, if the price cannot reclaim the structure areas above (especially 5000 and further 5050–5100), the downtrend is not yet over. The current rebound is likely just a pullback after completing a liquidity run, before the market decides its next direction.
Overall, the 18/03 plan was excellently executed in terms of bias, structure, and execution. This is a typical example of following the cash flow — no need to predict, just read the price action and liquidity correctly.
The market is now entering a sensitive phase after sweeping large liquidity, with a high possibility of strong volatility ahead when combined with FOMC news.
Follow liquidity — not the news.
📊 Today's 19/03 plan will focus on the scenario after liquidity has been swept — whether to continue breaking down or form a larger rebound. Follow LucasGrayTrading to update the roadmap & new setup before the market continues to move.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.