Chart Patterns

This 200 Zone Is The Only Thing Holding NOCIL Back NOCIL has given a very strong recovery from the major 125 support zone. This level has history and buyers defended it exactly when the stock looked weakest. Since then price has recovered towards 190 and is now again approaching the major 195 to 200 resistance. This zone was an important support during the previous bullish cycle. After the breakdown it became resistance and price has spent most of 2025 and 2026 below it. Now buyers are again putting pressure on the same level and momentum is improving. For me 200 is the main confirmation now. If NOCIL breaks this zone and starts sustaining above it then the current structure can open up very quickly. Traders who are still selling near 200 because of previous rejections can get trapped after breakout. Above this level price has room towards 225 to 250 first. After that the bigger trendline comes into play. RSI around 60 also shows momentum is improving without looking extremely stretched. The recovery from 125 was phase one. A clean breakout above 200 can start the real expansion phase.

This Trendline Is Getting Weaker With Every Fresh Test Geojit Financial has spent almost 2 years correcting and building a base after the huge 2024 move. The most interesting part now is how price has recovered from the major support near 55 and moved back towards this falling trendline. This trendline has controlled the stock since early 2025. But now price is sitting right below it around 80 and sellers are not able to push it down strongly. The more price stays near resistance the more interesting this setup becomes. A clean breakout above 82 to 85 can change the momentum very quickly. Once price sustains above this trendline I think 100 to 105 becomes the next important zone. That was a major level earlier and should attract price again if momentum comes. Above that the bigger structure opens towards the old highs near 150. For now 82 to 85 is the key. Break this with strength and this long correction can finally turn into a fresh bullish cycle.

Sellers Tried This Level Again And Again. Now It Is Breaking Kross has been stuck inside this broad structure for almost 2 years. The most important part is the upper trendline around 220 to 230. Price reached this area multiple times and every time sellers pushed it back. But look at what happened after each rejection. Price kept recovering and coming back towards the same resistance. That tells me buyers were not giving up. Sellers were getting weaker with every fresh test and now price has finally started breaking above this long standing resistance with strong momentum. If price sustains above 230 to 235 then I think the whole behaviour of this stock can change. Traders who kept selling this resistance because it worked earlier can get trapped now. Their exits plus fresh breakout buying can add more momentum. RSI is also showing strength without being extremely stretched. Above this zone I see room towards 250 first and then around 260. This resistance worked for a long time. That is exactly why its breakout can matter much more now.

Nifty FMCG: A Crucial Technical Setup Nifty FMCG has formed a large Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily chart, developing over the 2022–2026 period. The pattern consists of: Left Shoulder: Formed around 2023–24 Head: A higher peak formed during 2024 Right Shoulder: Developed during 2025 Neckline: Around the 52,000–53,000 zone After failing to sustain above the right-shoulder region, the index entered a prolonged decline and has now moved toward a major long-term rising support trendline. Why the current level is important The blue trendline on the chart has been developing for several years and currently comes close to the 45,000–46,000 zone. The index is now testing this support area. This creates an important technical situation: If support holds → FMCG stocks could see a relief bounce, with the index potentially attempting to reclaim nearby resistance levels. If support breaks decisively → the long-term structure could weaken further, and the completed Head & Shoulders pattern may become more relevant from a bearish technical perspective. The key point The index is currently sitting at a make-or-break technical zone. Rather than assuming that the support will hold, traders can watch for price confirmation—such as a strong reversal candle, higher low, or sustained move back above nearby resistance. In simple words: “Nifty FMCG has completed a multi-year Head & Shoulders formation and is now testing a crucial 4-year support trendline. The next few sessions could determine whether this support triggers a bounce or breaks, potentially confirming further weakness.” Important: A chart pattern is a technical framework, not a guarantee of future price movement.

by Indrayan_TradeWithNandi

Jana Small Finance Bank: Key Support Holding — Upside in Focus Jana Small Finance Bank is currently holding the major support zone of 440–460 after breaking above the long-term downtrend line. Price is now showing support around the ₹470–490 zone. If this important zone continues to hold, the next potential upside zone is ₹680–720, which is a major resistance area. 🔹 Major Support: ₹440–460 🔹 Current Support: ₹470–490 🔹 Major Resistance: ₹680–720 The key factor to watch is price action around the ₹470–490 zone. A sustained hold could keep the bullish structure intact.

by tradeswithnitin

Sellers Are Running Out Of Control Here STL Networks is slowly building pressure right below its long-term falling trendline. Price has respected this resistance for months, but every fresh attempt is coming with better strength and buyers are again pushing near the 27 zone. The important part is that sellers are no longer able to push price back toward the lower end of the structure, while RSI has also recovered above 60. This shows buyers are slowly taking control and the resistance is getting weaker with repeated testing. Now the trendline around 27–27.50 becomes the key trigger. A clean breakout and sustain above this zone can trap sellers who are still betting on another rejection, while fresh buyers can enter once the larger falling structure is broken. Liquidity sitting above the trendline can add further momentum after confirmation, and the structure has room to expand toward the 30 zone initially. One strong breakout from here can finally end months of compression and shift the momentum back in favour of bulls.

Gold Under Pressure — Sellers Remain in Control XAUUSD remains under short-term bearish pressure, with the post-Fed environment and H1 structure still favoring sellers. Gold continues to face headwinds after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, while elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar keep the broader environment challenging for the metal. On H1, price remains below the descending trendline, and the latest recovery was rejected before buyers could change the bearish structure. The 4,335–4,345 area remains the key resistance. As long as this zone holds, I favor SELL setups on rebounds, with 4,235–4,250 as the main downside area to watch.

by Paradise_Noir

Every Major Dip Has Been Bought. This One Looks Similar SBI Life has been moving inside this rising channel for almost 6 years and the structure is still beautifully intact. Every time price reached the lower side of this channel buyers stepped in and the stock eventually moved towards the upper side again. We saw it in 2020 then 2023 and again in early 2025. Now price has once again corrected towards the same rising support around 1650 to 1700 and buyers are already responding from there. This week price is up around 4% from the zone which shows demand is still present. As long as this channel support holds I see this correction more as another accumulation opportunity than weakness. Price can slowly move back towards 1900 then 2050 and eventually the upper side of the channel around 2250 to 2300. There can be some volatility in between but the bigger trend is still clearly up. Sellers have tried to break this structure multiple times in the past and failed every time. If buyers continue defending this zone then I think another bullish cycle inside this long term channel can start from here.

Breakout Done. Retest Done. Now Expansion Can Begin Arman Financial has completed one of the most important parts of this structure. The W pattern formed after a long correction where sellers tried multiple times to push the stock lower but buyers kept defending the rising support. Price then broke the neckline around 1850 to 1900 with strong momentum. After breakout it came back towards the same zone and retested it successfully. That old resistance is now acting like support. This is exactly how a healthy breakout should behave before the next move starts. Now I think the expansion phase can come. Price is again moving above 1950 and slowly getting closer to the major falling trendline around 2100 to 2200. This is the last major barrier visible in this structure. Once price breaks this trendline and sustains above it the whole long term structure can become much stronger. Sellers from the previous highs can start getting trapped and fresh liquidity can enter above the trendline. After such a long W formation plus breakout and successful retest I won’t be surprised if momentum becomes very aggressive once this final resistance is gone.

This Compression Can Open The Door For A 100% Move AvenuesAI is forming a very interesting long term structure. Since the 2024 top price has been making lower highs under the falling trendline. But at the same time buyers are continuously defending the rising support from below. This has created a huge compression where sellers are pushing from the top while buyers are absorbing everything near support. Every rejection from the trendline is getting smaller now. That tells me selling pressure is slowly losing strength and price is getting closer to a major decision point. The real confirmation will come once price breaks this falling trendline and starts sustaining above 18 to 20 zone. Once that happens sellers sitting around this trendline can get trapped and fresh buyers can enter aggressively. After that there is not much major structure until the previous ATH zone around 35. That gives almost 100% upside from current levels. It may take time because this is a weekly setup. But the compression has been building for more than two years. Bigger the compression stronger the expansion can become once buyers finally take control.

The Downtrend Is Finally Breaking After Years Of Pressure Astec Lifesciences has been under a major falling trendline since its 2022 peak. Every recovery attempt was getting rejected from this trendline and sellers remained in control for years. But now something important has changed. Price has finally broken this long term trendline and then came back to test the same area. The retest is done and buyers have responded strongly from there. This week itself the stock is up around 13% which shows buying strength is coming back after a long time. The next important zone is around 950 to 1000. This level has acted as a major support and resistance earlier so some selling can come there. But if price reaches this zone with the same momentum and sustains above 1000 then the whole structure can change very fast. Sellers who were comfortable throughout this downtrend can slowly start getting trapped while fresh buyers enter after confirmation. For me the most important part is already happening. Years old downtrend is broken. Retest is done. Now buyers just need to continue the momentum.

Years Of Resistance Is Gone. Now Expansion Can Get Violent Filatex India has finally broken a resistance zone which was stopping the stock again and again since 2022. Every time price reached around 70 to 75 sellers became active and pushed it back. But this time the behaviour is completely different. Price broke this multi year resistance with very strong momentum and volume. More importantly after breakout it came back near the same zone and buyers absorbed the selling pressure. This is exactly what we want to see after a major breakout. Old resistance is now trying to become a strong support. Now the stock is moving into the expansion phase after breakout and retest. Price is already around 90 and buyers are clearly in control. There can be some small pullbacks because RSI is heated but as long as price keeps sustaining above the breakout zone the bigger structure remains very strong. Traders who were selling near 70 to 75 for years can now get trapped while fresh liquidity is sitting on the upside. Above 90 the next psychological zone around 100 can come into focus. This is no longer the same range bound stock we were watching for years. The structure has changed and now price is trying to discover a completely new range.

XAUUSD: Liquidity Sweep into Supply Zone –Bearish Continuation ?Market Overview Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe has completed a corrective pull-back into a strong higher-timeframe bearish structure. Price broke down sharply from an earlier consolidation range, establishing a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside. Technical Breakdown Break of Structure (BOS): Price aggressively impulsed downward from the prior consolidation block, shifting medium-term momentum bearish. Liquidity Sweep & Trendline Resistance: The recent upward retracement swept liquidity above recent short-term highs and tested a descending trendline originating from the previous consolidation high. Supply Zone Tap: Price expanded directly into the marked Supply Zone (4,330 - 4,360), reacting sharply with selling pressure. CHoCH (Change of Character): Prior minor higher highs shifted momentum back down, signaling lower-timeframe distribution within the supply block. Trade Plan Bias: Bearish / Short Entry Zone: 4,330 – 4,345 (Supply Zone Re-test) Stop Loss (SL): 4,365 (Above Supply Zone & Liquidity Highs) Take Profit (TP): 4,280 (Target Level / Support Low).

VA Tech Wabag Ltd. — Bullish Breakout Setup - Timeframe: 1Day VA Tech Wabag is showing a potential bullish breakout from a descending trendline resistance. The stock is trading near ₹2,278, with strong bullish momentum and increasing volume. The RSI is around 69, indicating strong momentum but also caution near overbought territory. 🔹 Entry: ₹2,320–₹2,350, preferably after a daily candle closes above resistance. 🔹 Stop Loss: ₹2,160 (daily closing basis) 🎯 Target 1: ₹2,450 🎯 Target 2: ₹2,550 🎯 Target 3: ₹2,650 Trade Logic: Breakout above the descending trendline may signal trend continuation. Strong volume supports the bullish setup. RSI near 70 suggests momentum is strong, but a pullback is possible. A sustained move above ₹2,320 could open the way toward higher targets. ⚠️ Invalidation: A sustained move below ₹2,160 would weaken the bullish setup. Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis idea, not a guaranteed trade recommendation. Its only for Educational Purpose No Buy or Sell recommendation. #VAWABAG #VAtechWabag #NSE #SwingTrading #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarketIndia #TradingView

by LogicTradeRoom

Bikaji Foods International - DIWALI PICK !!Date 17.09.2026 Bikaji Foods Timeframe : Weekly Chart Cmp 552 Few Technical Highlights - For Buy (1) PE contraction from 135X to 48X (2) Weekly RSI Oversold (3) Consolidation at Descending Triangle's Neckline & Double Bottom (4) 50% price correction from lifehighs (5) Steady operating margings at 15% despite raw material cost shock (6) Compounded Profit Growth 29% (ttm) (7) Compounded Sales Growth 11% (ttm) (8) Cash Conversion Cycle 25 days (9) Steady FIIs holding for the last 3 quarters Other Important Factors - For Buy Fundamental Catalysts (Beyond Seasonality) (1) Bikaji completed a 53% acquisition of The Hazelnut Factory (THF) and 55% of Amiba Foods. (2) Despite intense edible oil and dairy input cost inflation impacting the sector, Bikaji successfully executed two targeted price/MRP increases earlier this fiscal year. (3) These adjustments improved gross margins by 70 basis points YoY to 35.7%, proving their brand equity can withstand macro commodity strain. (4) Bikaji was its concentration in Rajasthan. The company is systematically executing an aggressive regional expansion strategy targeting Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Punjab (5) Its "focus states" are expanding rapidly at 19% YoY, significantly outperforming its traditional core market velocity (11%). (6) Over the past fiscal year, Bikaji expanded its physical footprint to more than 370,000 direct retail outlets. Regards, Ankur

Dixon Technologies Elliott Wave Analysis: Will It Collapse?Dixon Analysis: Will It Collapse? Welcome back to WaveTalks... Stories of what the Market Whispers, straight from the mouth of an Elliottician, your old friend. If you haven't watched Comex Gold collapse from the $4,400 mark straight down to $4,275 the exact moment the Federal Reserve rate decision unfolded, you are missing the real action. The market always leaves clues. Speaking of clues, as a trader, Aug 24, 2026, was unforgettable. The stock plummeted 500 points in a single session. A big shoutout to follower Akshay, who was keenly watching what would unfold next. My warnings started on Aug 16, 2026 when stock was hovering close under 14000 mark... This was the precise warning shared on X: Check the Snapshot of the tweet Be extremely careful once price reaches 14,850 - 15,000; review the scenario there. A failure at that top end can pull price back to the 13,650s. Falling below 13,500–13,645 opens the possibility of the fall getting extended to the downside. Now, the data proves it: Elliott Wave works. Let’s break down the structure from the 9,600 bottom. The Elliott Wave Breakdown Wave A (Impulsive): Unfolded from the 9,600 bottom to the highs of 11,440. Wave B (Corrective): Formed a complex running double-three correction, terminating at 11,285. Wave C (Explosive): A 5-wave impulsive sequence that topped out exactly at 14,983. Remember that double top near 14,970 - 14,980 when I asked: *Will Dixon Collapse?* Here is your answer. The Current Downside Structure: From the 14,983 peak, Dixon began a new impulse downside (Possible Scenario ) Waves 1 to 4: Completed. Wave 4 High: Struck today, Sep 17, 2026, at 13,495. Alternate Wave 4 can unfold as a Triangle if Stock consolidates for next few days but strictly holding below 13500 What's Next: One final leg down - Wave 5 to conclude the bearish sequence from the 14,983 top. Trading Strategy & Key Levels: Line in the Sand (Invalidation Level): 13500 Aggressive Traders: Look for short opportunities as long as the price holds below 13,500. Conservative Traders: Plan bearish setups only on a clean break below the 13,000 - 13,050 zone. Wave 5 Targets Downside Primary Target: 12250’s (62% Fibonacci projection of Wave 1-3 distance in the current Impulsive sequence downside from the highs of 14983). Extended Targets: If 12,250 fails to hold, the next logical support clusters sit at 11,700 and 11,300. #WaveTalks Market Whispers! Can You Hear Them? Regards, Abhishek H. Singh SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000030092)

US Oil Sell Zone And Position Sell US OIl As it is at Level of selling, as Seller Stop loss has been taken and also closed above the zone soo short smallest quantity possible

GOLD supports — Bulls aim for 4330 & 4370 Gold is holding inside a short-term rising channel after the strong reaction from the 4255–4270 support zone. Price has recovered back toward 4300, while the recent structure shows buyers continuing to defend the rising channel. The key question now is whether Gold can maintain this recovery and break through the nearby resistance. The main scenario is to wait for a controlled pullback toward the 4290–4300 support area. If this zone holds and bullish confirmation appears, Gold could retest the 4320–4330 resistance zone. A clean breakout above 4330 would confirm continuation and open the way toward the major 4360–4370 resistance zone. On the downside, a sustained break below the rising channel and 4255–4270 support would weaken the current bullish structure and require reassessment. 📍 KEY LEVELS: 🔹 4290–4300 Immediate support inside the rising structure. Preferred area to monitor for a BUY reaction. 🔹 4255–4270 Major support zone and key base of the current recovery. 🔹 4320–4330 Immediate resistance and first breakout area. 🔹 4360–4370 Major resistance zone and primary upside target. 🔹 4400 Extended upside target if Gold breaks and holds above 4370. ✅ PREFERRED SCENARIO: Gold maintains the rising channel. Pullback toward 4290–4300 remains controlled. Support holds + bullish confirmation → BUY. Break above 4320–4330 → bullish continuation. Recovery toward 4360–4370. Sustained breakout above 4370 → target 4400. Break below 4255–4270 → reassess the bullish structure. BIAS: 🟢 BULLISH — RECOVERY CONTINUATION — Gold continues to show signs of buying pressure after defending the 4255–4270 base. Prefer buying confirmed pullbacks within the rising structure, with 4330 as the key breakout trigger and 4360–4370 as the next major upside objective.

INDIGO Filled Gap Chart Breakdown & Technical Context: Recent Correction: INDIGO has experienced a sharp decline from its recent highs above the 5,400 level. During this fall, it sliced right through its immediate strong support (the upper shaded zone). According to the principle of polarity, this broken support is now expected to act as overhead resistance. Current Positioning: The price is currently resting inside a crucial historical demand/support zone (the lower shaded box), trading near the 4,795 mark. The "Gap Fill" Logic: The lowest horizontal dashed line marked on the chart (around the 4,377 level) represents a major pending gap/liquidity void. In technical analysis, unfilled gaps often act as a magnet for price. If the current support zone fails to hold, the market could drop swiftly to fill this gap. Trading Scenarios & Action Plan: 🔴 Bearish Breakdown (Gap Fill Target): If we see a decisive daily candle close below this lower demand box, it will signal strong bearish continuation. The immediate downside target would be the horizontal line at 4,377 to complete the gap fill. 🟢 Bullish Rejection (Relief Bounce): Since the price is currently sitting inside a strong historical support area, we cannot rule out a bounce. If a clear bullish reversal candlestick pattern (such as a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing) forms within this zone, it could trigger a relief rally. The primary upside target would be a retest of the upper shaded box (previous support turned resistance). Conclusion: This is a strict "Wait and Watch" area. It is highly recommended to wait for price action confirmation—either a confirmed breakdown to play the gap fill, or a clear reversal signal to trade the bounce. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use proper risk management.

EURUSD Bearish (Reversal Flag) is forming In our previous analysis, we were optimistic for Bullish side but the price didn't triggerred our breakout at 1.16121. you can refer to the following anaylises posted on 14-09-2026. Now the price made reverse flag pattern. on 1H timeframe. Same is still valid on 4H timeframe. the flag target will be our 2nd TP at 1.1395 We are bearish till the price do not close above 1.1552 on hourly timeframe. I am placing a sell stop order on the breakdown below 1.1522 and aiming for my two trades to run. if the Bearish Order true then I will place two Sell Stop orders at the same entry level: Once TP1 is hit, I will move the SL to Break Even of the remaining trade to Breakeven and let the second position run toward TP2. Entry: 1.15217 SL: 1.15524 TP1: 1.14832 TP2: 1.1395

AYE FINANCE — A CONTRACTION, WORTH WATCHING.Daily chart | Educational study only AYE Finance has spent the last several weeks consolidating after a strong advance from the April lows. At first glance, it looks like a simple sideways range. But the more interesting part is what is happening inside that range. The structure The upper end of the base has repeatedly attracted supply, while the lows inside the range have gradually moved higher. That gives the structure ascending-triangle characteristics: resistance remains broadly in the same area, while buyers appear willing to step in progressively higher on each pullback. The stock is still inside the base, so there is no confirmed breakout yet. What is interesting is that the structure appears to be getting tighter. The contraction is the interesting part The swings inside the base appear to be progressively shrinking. The first pullback was relatively deep. The next was shallower. The latest contraction is tighter again. That gives the chart VCP-like characteristics. The basic idea behind volatility contraction is straightforward: as a base matures, aggressive supply can gradually reduce. If fewer holders are willing to sell at progressively lower prices, the swings often become quieter and tighter. That is what makes this chart worth monitoring. The rounded contractions Another interesting feature is the character of the lows. Instead of repeated sharp V-shaped reversals, several of the pullbacks have developed more gradually and formed rounded contractions. That suggests orderly consolidation rather than panic liquidation. It doesn't guarantee a positive resolution, but the character of the pullbacks can be just as important as their direction. Volume Volume has generally moderated through much of the consolidation, apart from a few obvious expansion days, including earnings-related activity. That is broadly constructive for a developing base. What matters more from here is whether participation expands meaningfully when the range eventually resolves. Recent average trading activity also does not suggest an extremely illiquid counter, so the tightening cannot simply be dismissed as price becoming quiet because nobody is participating. Market context matters The broader market backdrop deserves serious attention here. The candle from two sessions ago was particularly ugly across multiple indices and sectors. Several sectors slipped below their 50-DMA, breadth deteriorated sharply, and the technical structure of many individual stocks was damaged. So far, we have not seen meaningful follow-through to that weakness. But no immediate follow-through does not mean the risk has disappeared. Further selling can still emerge, and damaged breadth often takes time to repair. That makes this an environment where analysing an individual chart in isolation can be misleading. Even when a stock-specific setup looks constructive, absolute caution and disciplined risk management are imperative. Position sizing, stop discipline and respect for overall market breadth matter as much as the individual setup. What I would watch Not a target. Not an entry. Just behaviour. Does price eventually leave the base with strong participation and hold the move? Or does it lose the sequence of higher lows and fall back deeper into the range? Either outcome provides information. Until then, this remains a developing consolidation with tightening price action near the upper part of the base. The structure is interesting, but given the current broader-market backdrop, confirmation matters more than anticipation. Takeaway The most interesting bases are often the boring ones. After a strong move, a stock that stops advancing, absorbs supply, forms progressively smaller contractions and continues to hold higher lows deserves attention. But no stock operates in a vacuum. The important part is not predicting the breakout. It is watching whether price, volume and the broader market eventually confirm that demand has taken control. Disclaimer: This post is for educational and chart-study purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I am not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Please conduct your own research, manage risk appropriately and consult a SEBI-registered professional before making any investment or trading decision.

by sagartharayil

RELIANCE: Falling Wedge Bullish Reversal at Strong Support ₹1469 Technical Analysis Pattern Formation : The 1-Day chart of Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) displays a multi-month Falling Wedge pattern. Lower highs and lower lows are gradually narrowing toward a technical apex, indicating seller exhaustion. Support Zone: Price action is testing a major Strong Support Area around ₹1,200 – ₹1,210. This zone aligns with past macro swing lows and includes a recorded False Breakout / Liquidity Sweep (under ₹1,200), signaling strong institutional buying defense. Accumulation / Spring: The chart highlights a rounded accumulation curve (green shade) emerging from the lower trendline of the wedge, forming a potential "spring" structure near the ₹1,200 zone. Resistance & Targets: Immediate Resistance: ₹1,372 (Intermediate Horizontal Resistance Band). Primary Target: ₹1,469 (Upper Resistance Zone / Measured Move Target). Fundamental Drivers Energy & Petrochemicals: Stable refining margins and expansion into green energy initiatives (solar, hydrogen, and gigafactories) provide long-term balance sheet stability. Consumer Businesses (Retail & Telecom): Steady ARPU growth in Jio Platforms alongside consistent revenue expansion in Reliance Retail continue to drive core earnings growth. Balance Sheet Flexibility: Strong institutional capital access and investment grade ratings maintain defensive strength despite broader market volatility. Trading Idea Summary Current Price: ₹1,244.00 Accumulation Zone: ₹1,210 – ₹1,240 Stop Loss: Below ₹1,195 (daily candle close) Target 1: ₹1,372.40 Target 2: ₹1,469.50 Risk-to-Reward: 1:3.5+ Disclaimer This post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical chart patterns and fundamental data are subject to market risks. Please perform your own research or consult a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

by thetradeguru_fx

XAUUSD — Internal Supply Sell Before FOMC Gold is trading around $4,326 after a corrective recovery from the recent sell-side liquidity sweep. Despite the bounce, H1 price remains beneath the descending HTF trendline, and the broader sequence of lower highs continues to favor bearish delivery. Macro risk is concentrated around today’s FOMC decision. Markets are pricing roughly a 92% probability of at least a 25 bp Fed hike, while the U.S. dollar remains near multi-week highs. Gold has recovered modestly ahead of the announcement, but a hawkish Fed message could reinforce yield pressure on the metal. Oil has eased after an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories, although Brent remains above $100 and Middle East supply disruptions continue to keep inflation risk elevated. SMC View The H1 structure remains bearish below dynamic supply. The recent bullish MSS explains the current corrective repricing, but it has not yet broken the broader bearish structure. Price is now moving back toward the $4,395-$4,405 Internal Supply area. This is the nearest mitigation zone and the main location where sellers may attempt to regain control. The $4,385–$4,405 Premium Bearish OB remains the higher resistance zone if FOMC volatility drives a deeper liquidity sweep. Main Trading Scenario Sell Priority: $4,395-4,405 Condition: Wait for price to retrace into Internal Supply and show bearish rejection, failed acceptance above the zone, or a lower-timeframe bearish MSS/CHOCH. Entry: $4,395-4,405 after confirmation SL: Above $4,355 and the rejection structure TP1: $4,280–$4,295 TP2: $4,252–$4,268 Key Zones to Watch $4,395-$4,405 — Premium Bearish OB $4,330–$4,345 — Main Internal Supply $4,283–$4,318 — FVG / mitigation area $4,252–$4,268 — Internal SSL HTF descending trendline — Dynamic resistance Above $4,355 — Immediate sell setup weakens Prime Gold View The sell bias remains favored while Gold stays beneath Internal Supply and the HTF bearish trendline. A confirmed rejection from $4,395-$4,405 could reopen delivery toward the exposed sell-side liquidity below. With the FOMC decision approaching, sharp two-sided liquidity sweeps are possible, so the reaction after mitigation matters more than anticipating the first move. No confirmation, no trade.

by Gold_Prime_Smc