Nifty50 analysis(14/7/2026)Expiry day.HOPE YOU HAVE A GREAT DAY.
CPR: lower value cpr: sideways bearish.
FII: -3,062.27 sold
DII: 2,171.70 bought
Highest OI:
CALL OI: weak 24300
PUT OI: strong 24000
Resistance: - 24300
Support : - 23800
conclusion:.
My pov
1.Almost 160+ point gap down opening , today expiry expected to be consolidation with volatility so market expected to trade between 24200 to 24000.
2.price resist at 24200 but a gap down shows the active player are in market ,still we can expect some bearish moves
3.today expiry can close above 24000.
Psychology:
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.”
― Warren Buffett
note:
8moving average ling is blue colour.
20moving average line is green colour
50moving average line is red colour.
200moving average line is black colour.
cpr is for trend analysis.
MA line is for support and resistance.
Disclaimer:
Iam not Sebi registered so i started this as a hobby, please do your own analysis, any profit/loss you gained is not my concern. I can be wrong please do not take it seriously thank you.+
Chart Patterns
BEFORE YOU BUY GOLD... READ THISYesterday, the market completely invalidated the key support zone that I shared, which was between $4093 and $4116. Instead of respecting that support, Gold opened with a gap-down below the zone. As a result, what was supposed to be a strong support area immediately turned into a strong resistance.
Overall, anyone who was holding buy positions from last week's lows, especially traders who were using $4000 as their stop-loss level, got trapped badly on Monday. We witnessed a very aggressive sell-off throughout the session. Looking at that price action, I don't believe Gold is ready for a meaningful recovery just yet. Instead, I expect the market to continue attracting small buyers before extending its bearish move.
Gold has been holding above the $3950 support area for some time now, but I believe that level is likely to break in the coming sessions.
For me, the trading plan remains very simple. As long as Gold stays below $4055, I will continue looking for selling opportunities on every rally because I believe the market's primary objective is still to trap buyers.
The market tried several times to hold above the important $4055 to $4080 support zone, but every recovery attempt failed. Yesterday's sharp decline confirmed that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control. More importantly, it suggests that institutional players are not interested in supporting a short-term bullish trend. Instead, their focus appears to be pushing the market lower while trapping every new buyer entering too early.
Now let's discuss my short and simple trading plan for Tuesday.
Considering yesterday's aggressive sell-off and respecting the current price action, I don't expect Gold to suddenly recover and begin a strong bullish rally. If that happens, it would represent a complete manipulation move rather than a healthy price action recovery.
From both a psychological and price action perspective, my expectation is slightly different.
Right now, Gold is fluctuating around the $4000 level, creating confusion between buyers and sellers. Yesterday's aggressive decline has changed market sentiment significantly. Whenever the market makes such a large impulsive move, it rarely continues moving aggressively in the same direction immediately afterward. Instead, it usually spends some time creating liquidity before the next major move begins.
Because of that, I expect Gold to show a limited upside correction first. The purpose of this move would likely be to trap the sellers who entered near yesterday's closing prices while simultaneously attracting fresh buyers back into the market.
Notice that Gold only briefly broke below $4000 before quickly recovering back above it. That temporary breakdown likely convinced many traders that the downside move had ended, encouraging them to enter fresh buy positions once the price reclaimed $4000.
In my opinion, Gold may extend this recovery toward the $4030 to $4040 area. However, I believe that move will simply create another selling opportunity before the market reverses lower once again. My expectation is that Gold will eventually move back below $4000 after that temporary recovery.
This entire trading plan is based purely on price action and market psychology.
I hope you found today's analysis logical and helpful. Wishing everyone the very best for Tuesday's trading session. Trade patiently, manage your risk carefully, and let the market come to your levels instead of chasing price.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold this Tuesday?
Let me know your view in the comments.
Reliance: Bears Still Have the Upper HandI'm not interested in buying Reliance at current levels. If I had to take a trade today, I'd rather be on the short side.
The stock continues to trade below its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, which tells me the broader trend is still bearish. While Reliance is holding an upward trendline, every bounce is getting sold near the ₹1,300 zone. That's a sign of distribution, not accumulation.
The derivatives market supports this view. Heavy Call open interest at ₹1,300, ₹1,310 and ₹1,350 suggests option writers are defending higher levels. A PCR of 0.63 also indicates bearish positioning continues to dominate.
On the daily chart, Reliance is trading below the pivot level of ₹1,302, while the 15-minute chart shows fading momentum with lower highs. Buyers have had multiple opportunities to push the stock higher but haven't been able to sustain above resistance.
As long as Reliance remains below ₹1,302–1,306, I see every pullback as a potential shorting opportunity rather than a buying opportunity.
I'm watching ₹1,279 as the first downside target. If that level breaks, the stock could extend towards ₹1,250–1,260.
I'll change my view only if Reliance closes decisively above ₹1,306 and follows through above ₹1,317. Until then, the trend favours the bears.
My trade: Sell on strength. The risk-reward currently favors the downside.
Nifty Outlook: I'm Still Waiting for ConfirmationOver the last few sessions, I've been watching Nifty defend higher lows consistently. Buyers are clearly stepping in on every dip, but one thing hasn't changed—the market is still struggling to clear the resistance zone around 24,250–24,300.
For me, this is not the place to get aggressive. The reward doesn't justify the risk until the market proves itself.
From the daily chart, Nifty continues to respect the rising structure, but it is trading just below the 200-day moving average near 24,410, which remains the biggest hurdle. Until we close above it, I consider this a recovery phase rather than a confirmed uptrend.
The option chain tells a similar story.
The strongest Put writing is sitting at 24,000, with fresh additions at 24,100 and 24,200. That tells me buyers are confident defending lower levels.
At the same time, heavy Call writing has shifted to 24,300, 24,400 and 24,500, showing that option writers are still expecting resistance overhead.
In other words, the market is trapped between confident buyers and equally confident sellers.
My approach is simple.
If Nifty closes above 24,300, I'll look for long positions targeting 24,450, 24,600 and possibly 24,800.
If the index loses 24,150, I'll expect a move back toward 24,000, and only a break below that would turn me cautious.
For now, I'm choosing patience over prediction.
The trend is improving, but I don't want to pay premium prices before the market confirms the breakout. I'd rather miss the first 50 points of the move than get trapped inside another range.
Levels I'm Watching
Resistance: 24,250–24,300
Major Resistance: 24,410 (200 DMA)
Support: 24,150
Strong Support: 24,000
My View: The bulls have an edge, but the market still needs to prove it. Until 24,300 is convincingly reclaimed, I prefer to stay selective and let price confirm the next move.
BTC/USD Analysis – Bearish Momentum Building 📉 BTC/USD Analysis – Bearish Momentum Building ⚠️
🧠 Market View
BTC/USD has broken below the rising channel, showing that bullish strength is weakening. The confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) indicates that sellers have taken short-term control. Until price moves back above the broken structure, the market is likely to remain under bearish pressure.
🔍 Key Observations
📉 Breakdown from the ascending channel signals a possible trend reversal.
⚠️ BOS confirms a bearish shift in market structure.
🟨 A pullback towards the 62.8K–63.0K zone may act as a resistance if sellers step in.
🟧 The Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 60.6K–60.9K can be the next downside target.
🟥 The Order Block (OB) near 60.0K–60.3K is a strong demand zone where buyers may react.
🚫 The 65.5K–66.0K area remains a major resistance for any bullish comeback.
📊 Outlook
As long as BTC stays below the broken channel and the BOS level, the bearish bias remains valid. A rejection from the retest zone can push the price towards the FVG and later the Order Block around 60K. If buyers reclaim the channel with strong momentum, this bearish setup will become invalid.
⚠️ Trade with proper risk management and wait for confirmation before taking any position.
HCLTECH Falling Wedge Breakout After Strong Q1 FY27 Results📊 HCL Technologies: Daily Technical Snapshot – Falling Wedge Breakout After Strong Q1 FY27 Results
📊 STWP Technical Analysis
________________________________________
MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT | NSE: HCLTECH | DAILY
Closing Price: 1,221.20 (+57.10 | +4.91%)
Core Trend: Recovery within Long-Term Uptrend
Market State: Confirmed Falling Wedge Breakout
Price Structure: Price has broken above a multi-month Falling Wedge, supported by a strong bullish breakout candle and significantly higher trading volume. The breakout signals weakening selling pressure and improving buyer conviction.
________________________________________
OPERATIONAL PRICE GRID & KEY REFERENCE LEVELS
Model Reference Level: 1,237.00
Hard Invalidation Level: 1,119.00
Structural Risk: 118.00 (9.54%)
Resistance Levels: R1 1,251.47 | R2 1,281.73 | R3 1,326.47
Support Levels: S1 1,176.47 | S2 1,131.73 | S3 1,101.47
Range Structure: Low 1,119.00 | High 1,326.47
Higher Timeframe Observation Zones: 1,355.00 | 1,472.95
________________________________________
MOMENTUM, PARTICIPATION & CPR DATA
Volume Profile: 9.03 Million Shares
Volume Character: Very High Relative Participation
RSI: 62.89 (Strong Momentum Zone)
ADX: 14.20 (Early Trend Development Phase)
ROC: +10.78%
MACD Status: Fresh Bullish Momentum Structure
CCI: +174.99 (Strong Bullish Momentum)
Stochastic Reading: 92.37 (Extended Momentum Zone)
Current Bias: BUY ON PULLBACKS
CPR State: Bullish Zone | CPR Moving Up (Wide)
Today's CPR: Pivot 1,169.70 | Top 1,166.90 | Base 1,172.50
Tomorrow's CPR (Projected): Pivot 1,206.75 | Top 1,213.95 | Base 1,199.50
________________________________________
📚 EDUCATIONAL OBSERVATION
HCL Technologies has confirmed a breakout from a multi-month Falling Wedge, a chart pattern widely regarded as a bullish reversal formation that often develops after an extended corrective phase. The breakout is supported by a strong bullish candle, improving momentum indicators and significantly higher trading volume, reflecting renewed buying interest and strengthening market participation.
A Falling Wedge forms as prices create progressively lower highs and lower lows within converging trendlines. As the pattern matures, selling pressure gradually weakens while buyers begin accumulating at lower levels. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary often signals that the corrective phase may be ending and that a fresh upward trend could be developing.
Momentum indicators continue to support the improving technical structure. The RSI at 62.89 reflects healthy bullish momentum without entering an extreme overbought zone. MACD has generated a fresh bullish crossover, indicating strengthening upside momentum, while the ROC of +10.78% highlights strong price acceleration. The CCI reading of +174.99 confirms robust buying pressure, and the Stochastic reading of 92.37 reflects sustained momentum, although elevated readings also suggest that short-term consolidations or pullbacks remain a normal possibility after a sharp breakout.
The projected Central Pivot Range (CPR) for the next trading session has shifted higher, with the projected Pivot at 1,206.75. A rising and widening CPR generally reflects improving market acceptance of higher prices and often supports trend continuation when accompanied by healthy participation. The current dashboard therefore maintains a constructive outlook with a preference for buying on pullbacks rather than chasing extended moves.
Immediate attention remains focused on the resistance zone between 1,251 and 1,282. A sustained move above this region could strengthen the breakout further and bring the higher-timeframe observation zones near 1,355 and 1,473 into focus. On the downside, 1,176 remains the first important support, while the structural invalidation level is positioned near 1,119.
________________________________________
🏢 BUSINESS & FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE
HCL Technologies recently announced its Q1 FY27 financial results (quarter ended June 2026), delivering a strong operational performance despite a challenging environment for the global IT services sector.
Key Highlights
Net Profit: 4,624 crore, up 20.32% year-on-year from 3,843 crore.
Revenue: 34,579 crore, representing 13.94% year-on-year growth from 30,349 crore.
Interim Dividend: The Board declared an interim dividend of 12 per equity share (face value 2) for FY27. The record date is 17 July 2026, while the dividend will be paid on 27 July 2026.
FY27 Guidance: Management reiterated its constant currency revenue growth guidance of 1–4%, maintaining its earlier outlook despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
The quarterly performance comes at a time when the broader IT sector continues to face headwinds from cautious enterprise technology spending, reduced discretionary budgets and increasing discussions around AI-driven pricing pressure across traditional IT services. Against this backdrop, HCLTech's stronger-than-expected profitability, double-digit revenue growth and stable guidance demonstrate operational resilience and disciplined execution.
Interestingly, the stock had already attracted strong buying interest ahead of the earnings announcement, rallying nearly 5% in the previous trading session. The combination of robust quarterly earnings, a healthy dividend announcement, stable management guidance and a technically confirmed Falling Wedge breakout provides both fundamental and technical support for the improving market structure.
________________________________________
📖 Educational Note
Support and resistance levels should be viewed as observation zones rather than predictive targets. Chart patterns, price action, volume analysis, momentum indicators and CPR are educational tools that help market participants understand evolving market structure within a disciplined risk-management framework. Similarly, strong quarterly results can improve investor sentiment but should always be evaluated alongside broader market conditions, valuation and risk management principles.
________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided strictly for educational and informational purposes.
It does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of capital.
Past performance, historical observations, chart patterns, earnings performance and technical indicators do not guarantee future results.
Please conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions.
STWP assumes no responsibility or liability for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of this analysis.
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | July 13-14✅ 4-Hour Trend Analysis
From the 4-hour timeframe, gold has already broken below the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower line at 4001.42 and has continuously lost key support levels around 4046 and 4020, indicating an accelerated downward move. However, the price has moved significantly away from the moving averages, suggesting the possibility of a short-term oversold rebound or sideways consolidation. Until gold regains and holds above the 4020–4047 area, the current trend cannot be considered reversed.
✅ 1-Hour Trend Analysis
From the 1-hour chart, gold has experienced consecutive large bearish candles, with the current price testing the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower line around 3988.40. The moving averages are clearly diverging downward, confirming a strong bearish structure on the 1-hour timeframe.
At this stage, chasing further downside carries increased risk. Gold may first consolidate around the 3986–4001 range, or rebound toward the 4020–4030 area before resuming the downward move. Only a sustained recovery above 4048 would reduce the short-term bearish pressure.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels
● 4020–4030: Short-term resistance zone
● 4048–4065: Key resistance zone
● 4090–4108: Structural resistance zone
🟢 Key Support Levels
● 3986–3965: Short-term support zone
● 3943–3940: Strong support zone
● 3924–3904: Structural support zone
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Short Position Strategy: Focus on short opportunities after price rebounds into resistance areas.
👉 Sell Zone 1: 4020–4030
👉 Sell Zone 2: 4045–4060
🎯 TP: 4000 → 3986 → 3965 → 3943
⚠️ If gold regains 4048 and continues trading above this level, the short-term bearish momentum will weaken, and gold may further rebound toward 4082–4084.
🔰 Long Position Strategy: Wait for the price to stabilize and form a clear 1-hour reversal signal before considering long entries.
👉 Buy Zone 1: 3986–3970
👉 Buy Zone 2: 3950–3940
🎯 TP: 4000 → 4020 → 4045 → 4082
⚠️ The 4-hour and 1-hour trends are both clearly bearish at the moment. Long positions are considered counter-trend rebound trades, so position size should be controlled and profits should be taken in a timely manner. If gold breaks below 3943 decisively, the price may continue declining toward 3924 and even 3904.
🔔 If you find my analysis helpful, please like, share, and stay tuned for future updates. Your support is my motivation to continue sharing professional insights. Wishing everyone smooth trading and steady profits!
Falling Wedge Fake Breakdown Reversal Before Inflation Data Gold (XAUUSD) is showing a Falling Wedge Fake Breakdown on the 30-minute timeframe, suggesting that sellers may be trapped below support ahead of today's high-impact inflation data release.
According to the Market Footprinting Trading Concept, price has swept liquidity beneath the wedge structure and is now approaching a high-probability reversal zone. If buyers reclaim the structure with strong bullish confirmation, this could trigger a sharp upside move as short positions begin to unwind.
Key Trading Zone
Buy Zone: 3970–3950
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Entry Confirmation: Wait for a 5-Minute Initial Reversal (I.R.) before entering any long position.
Bias: Bullish
Technical Outlook
Falling Wedge Fake Breakdown indicates a potential bear trap.
Liquidity has been collected below the wedge support.
Price is trading near a strong demand area where institutional buying may emerge.
Bullish candlestick confirmation at the reversal zone will strengthen the probability of an upside continuation.
A successful 5-Minute I.R. confirmation can provide a lower-risk entry with improved risk-to-reward.
Trading Plan
Buy Area: 3970–3950
Entry: Only after a confirmed 5-Minute Initial Reversal (I.R.)
Invalidation: If price fails to reclaim the reversal zone after the fake breakdown and continues closing below demand, avoid long entries.
Important Note
Today's inflation announcement is a major volatility event. Avoid entering before confirmation, as news-driven price action can produce sharp fake moves in both directions. Let the market reveal direction first, then trade only after your setup is confirmed.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects the Market Footprinting Trading Concept. Always manage your risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 14-Jul-2026Previous Close: 24,208.60 | Instrument: NIFTY 50 Index (Spot/Options)
Namaste Traders! 🙏 Here's my structured educational trading plan covering all three opening scenarios for tomorrow's session. Please treat this as a study framework to understand price action around key levels — not a buy/sell recommendation.
🟠 Note on Chart Lines: The Orange Zone (24,242–24,276) represents the "No-Trade / Sideways Zone" — price often chops here before choosing direction. Green = Bullish/Long bias. Red = Bearish/Short bias. Dashed lines = Probable/Unconfirmed trend (wait for confirmation).
🟢 SCENARIO 1: GAP UP OPENING (100+ points, i.e., open above 24,308)
📈 A gap-up of 100+ points shows strong overnight positive sentiment (global cues/FII flows). But remember — gap-ups often get "filled" or tested before continuation, so patience is key.
🟢 Bullish Continuation Plan:
⁘ If Nifty opens above 24,308 and sustains above 24,375 (Last Intraday Resistance) with strong volume, treat it as a breakout confirmation.
⁘ Entry: On a 15-min candle close above 24,375.
⁘ Target 1: 24,420 | Target 2: 24,461 (Extended Resistance).
⁘ Stop Loss: Below 24,320 (re-entry into opening zone invalidates breakout).
🔴 Gap-Up Reversal/Fade Plan (Dashed/Cautious):
⁘ If price opens with gap-up but immediately faces rejection near 24,375–24,400 and starts forming red candles, watch for a fade back into the Opening S/R zone (24,242–24,276).
⁘ This is a "maybe" scenario — confirm with a lower-high structure before shorting.
⁘ Target: 24,276 → 24,242. SL: Above the day's high.
⁘ ⁘ ⁘
💡 Action Tip: Never chase a gap-up directly. Let the first 15–30 mins candle close to confirm direction. Avoid buying naked calls right at open — IV crush + reversal risk is high.
🟡 SCENARIO 2: FLAT OPENING (within Opening S/R Zone: 24,242 – 24,276)
⚖️ A flat opening within this orange zone means the market is undecided. This is the "No-Trade Zone" — best approach is to wait and watch, not to force a trade.
🟠 Range-Bound Approach:
⁘ As long as price oscillates between 24,164 (Opening Support) and 24,276 (Opening Resistance), avoid directional option buying.
⁘ Best strategy here: Iron Condor / Short Straddle (for experienced traders only) to capture theta decay in sideways market.
🟢 Breakout Above Zone (Bullish Trigger):
⁘ Sustained move & candle close above 24,276 → opens door to 24,375 (Last Intraday Resistance).
⁘ Entry: Above 24,280 with volume confirmation.
⁘ SL: 24,242 (back inside zone = invalid).
🔴 Breakdown Below Zone (Bearish Trigger):
⁘ Candle close below 24,242 → 24,164 → 24,032 (Last Intraday Support) becomes the target zone.
⁘ Entry: Below 24,235.
⁘ SL: 24,276 (back inside zone = invalid).
⁘ ⁘ ⁘
💡 Action Tip: Flat opens are trap-prone. Wait for a clean breakout/breakdown candle with volume before entering options. Avoid FOMO trades in the first 15 minutes.
🔴 SCENARIO 3: GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ points, i.e., open below 24,108)
📉 A gap-down of 100+ points signals negative overnight sentiment. Similar to gap-ups, the first reaction (fill vs. continuation) determines the day's trend.
🔴 Bearish Continuation Plan:
⁘ If Nifty opens below 24,108 and sustains below 24,032 (Last Intraday Support) on a 15-min close, treat it as breakdown confirmation.
⁘ Entry: Below 24,032.
⁘ Target 1: 23,970 | Target 2: 23,902 (Extended Support).
⁘ Stop Loss: Above 24,080 (recovery back into support zone invalidates breakdown).
🟢 Gap-Down Recovery/Fade Plan (Dashed/Cautious):
⁘ If gap-down finds buyers early and starts reclaiming levels, watch for a pullback rally toward Opening S/R zone (24,164–24,242).
⁘ Confirm with higher-low structure before going long — this is a "maybe" reversal, not guaranteed.
⁘ Target: 24,164 → 24,242. SL: Below the day's low.
⁘ ⁘ ⁘
💡 Action Tip: In gap-down sessions, avoid panic-selling puts blindly. Wait for the first pullback/retest to gauge real strength of sellers before committing capital.
🛡️ OPTIONS TRADING — RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS
⁘ 🎯 Position Sizing: Never risk more than 2% of your capital on a single options trade.
⁘ ⏱️ Time Decay Awareness: Avoid buying far OTM options intraday — theta decay can eat profits even if direction is right.
⁘ 🚫 No Averaging on Losing Trades: If SL is hit, exit. Don't average down on options — it's not the same as equity.
⁘ 📉 IV Check: Before buying options, check India VIX — high IV can lead to premium crush post-move even if direction is correct.
⁘ 🔔 Use Alerts, Not Emotions: Set price alerts at key levels rather than staring at charts all day.
⁘ 💰 Book Partial Profits: Scale out at Target 1, trail SL to cost for the remaining position at Target 2.
⁘ 🕐 Avoid First 15 Minutes: Volatility is highest at open; let structure form before entering.
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
Tomorrow's session hinges on how price behaves around the Opening S/R zone (24,242–24,276).
⁘ A sustained move above 24,375 opens bullish targets toward 24,461.
⁘ A sustained move below 24,032 opens bearish targets toward 23,902.
⁘ Flat/range-bound action within the zone favors patience and non-directional strategies.
Across all scenarios, the golden rule remains: confirmation before entry, and strict stop-loss discipline. Markets reward patience, not predictions. 🧘♂️📚
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This post is purely for educational purposes to help traders understand price structure, support/resistance behavior, and risk management concepts. This is not investment advice. Please consult a registered financial advisor and do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading/investment decisions. Trading in equities and options involves substantial risk of loss.
📚 Happy Learning & Trade Safe! 🙏
Lloyds Enterprises cmp 78.89 Daily ChartLloyds Enterprises cmp 78.89 Daily Chart
- Support Zone 65 to 74 Price Band
- Resistance Zone 80 to ATH 88.13 Price Band
- Support Zone seems to be tested and retested
- Volumes seen in decent sync with avg traded qty
- Price getting rejection from Resistance Zone & Trendline
- Price Breakout from Resistance Zone will give NEW ATH soon
- Cup & Handle around Support Zone followed by Rounding Bottoms
NTPC: Local Resistance Retest & Long-Term Support Remains IntactNTPC is currently retesting a local resistance while trading near the lower trendline support of a long-term triangle. The current price action places the stock at an important decision zone.
Trade Plan 1
• Entry: 344–353
• Stop Loss: Weekly close below 330
• Targets: 369 → 386 → 403
This setup is valid only if the long-term trendline continues to hold and price reclaims the local resistance.
Trade Plan 2 (On Deeper Correction)
• Entry: 292–300
• Stop Loss: Weekly close below 285 (or below the swing low)
• Targets: 344 → 369 → 386 → 403
This setup becomes relevant only if the stock loses the first support zone and corrects into the next major demand area.
Outlook
The next few weekly candles should confirm whether NTPC resumes its uptrend from the current support or offers a better risk-reward opportunity after a deeper pullback.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis reflects my personal view based on technical analysis and price action. It is shared for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before taking any trade.
ONE 97 COMMUNICATIONS (PAYTM) – SWING TRADE SETUPPAYTM) – CMP:1097.95; RSI: 55.34
Trade plan based on the chart (Bullish Cypher + Parallel Channel + Elliott Wave + RSI/MACD confluence.
📊 Structure Summary
Pattern: Bullish Cypher completed near ₹900–950 zone
Trend: Rising parallel channel intact (higher highs & higher lows)
Wave Count: Likely Wave 2 completed → Wave 3 initiation zone
Momentum: RSI recovering from oversold, MACD showing early bullish crossover
✅ Trade Setup (Swing Positional)
🟢 Entry Zone (Accumulation)
₹980 – ₹1,050 (current demand + channel support confluence)
➕ Add-on Zone
₹900 – ₹950 (strong PRZ of Cypher + demand zone)
🎯 Targets
T1: ₹1,230 (1W Pivot Low / resistance)
T2: ₹1,380 (1W Pivot High / breakout level)
T3 (Positional): ₹1,600 – ₹1,750 (Wave 3 expansion + channel top)
🛑 Stop Loss
Strict SL: ₹880 (below Cypher invalidation + demand zone)
Closing basis SL: ₹920 (for conservative traders)
💡 Strategy Note
Treat this as early Wave 3 positioning (best RR phase)
Prefer staggered buying over lump sum
Aggressive traders can enter near CMP; conservative wait for ₹1,100 breakout
📌 Thanks a ton for checking out my idea! Hope it sparked some value for you.
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Nifty 50 Trade Plan [14.07.2026: Tuesday]Probable Scenario Analysis and Trade Plan for Nifty 50 Index NSE:NIFTY for the 14th of July, 2026. The day is Tuesday.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Be bullish if the price sustains above 24250 for at least 30 minutes and forms a sustained bullish candle. The probable bullish targets above 24250 would be - 24312.5 and 24375. There is an unfilled GAP at 24355.1. The price would receive strong resistance at 24375. Next, if the price sustains above 24375, then the probable bullish targets would be - 24437.5 and 24500.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Be bearish if the price decisively breaks down below 24125 and sustains. In this case, the probable bearish targets would be - 24062.5 and 24000. There will be strong support at 24000. There is a minor unfilled GAP at 24981.9. Probably, the market would fill this GAP. Next, if the price decisively sustains below 24000, then there will be sharp selling. The probable bearish targets below 24000 would be - 23937.5 and 23875. There is an unfilled GAP at 24981.9.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (24250 - 24125).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (24375 - 24125).
Here, 24250 is the median of the ROC. The median works like an intraday sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Event
No high-impact event this week. No holidays this week. However, there is a NIFTY 50 weekly expiry. We can expect a price anomaly on the expiry day. Best to trade in the second half of the trading session. Lastly, geopolitical issues are omnipresent.
● Intraday Bias
Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price. If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
Balaji Amines @ 52W High, What next is visible on Charts ....???Balaji Amines CMP: 2043.30
Balaji Amines has staged an impressive ~96% rally over the last three months and is currently trading near its 52-week high. While the price action remains bullish, investors should expect higher volatility after such a sharp move.
The bullish view remains valid as long as the stock sustains above the key breakout zone of ₹1,950–2,000. Holding this zone could pave the way for the next leg of the uptrend over the coming months.
Elliott Wave Perspective
Weekly Chart:
The broader structure appears to be in an ABC corrective pattern, with Wave A currently under formation. This suggests that the stock may still have room to extend higher before a larger corrective phase emerges.
Daily Chart:
On the daily timeframe, the stock appears to be in a Wave 3 expansion phase, typically the strongest and most dynamic segment of an Elliott Wave cycle.
Interestingly, both the weekly and daily wave structures converge on similar upside projections, indicating potential targets around:
₹2,300
₹2,450–2,500
Key Levels to Watch
Preferred Entry: ₹1,980–2,020 on a pullback, offering a favorable risk-reward setup.
Immediate Resistance: ₹2,150–2,185. A decisive breakout above this zone could accelerate momentum toward higher targets.
Invalidation Level: ₹1,930. A close below this level would weaken the bullish structure and indicate a failed breakout.
Conclusion :
The stock remains technically strong, supported by both breakout price action and Elliott Wave analysis. While the near-term trend remains bullish, the sustainability of the move depends on holding the ₹1,950–2,000 support zone. If that support holds, the path toward ₹2,300 and eventually ₹2,450–2,500 remains open.
NOVARTIND (NSE) — Explosive Stage 2 BreakoutNovartis India broke out of a multi-week tightening consolidation today, rallying from an open of ₹1,509 to a high of ₹1,690 before settling at ₹1,664.80 (+11.39%). This move comes on the back of a powerful primary uptrend that began in April 2026, when the stock rocketed off a long multi-year Stage 1 base (roughly ₹500–800, spanning early 2022 through mid-2025) into a clean Stage 2 advance — more than doubling from the ~₹725 breakout point to today's high.
Structure:
After the initial vertical leg topped out near ₹1,690 in June, the stock spent the last several weeks forming a tight flag/pennant just under that level — higher lows compressing into resistance, classic contraction after a sharp advance.
Today's candle resolves that pattern with a decisive upside break to fresh highs, taking out the flag's resistance line in one move.
Volume signature: This is the standout part of the chart. Today's volume printed at 307.55K shares — by a wide margin the largest single-session volume bar on this entire multi-year chart, dwarfing even the volume spikes seen around past earnings dates (marked "E").
The relative volume oscillator at the bottom confirms this: it's spiking to its highest reading in the visible history, well above the elevated levels seen during the April–June breakout leg. A move of this magnitude, on volume this far above average, on what appears to be an earnings/news catalyst, is a textbook institutional accumulation signature — big players stepping in with size, not retail noise.
Read: Breakout from tight consolidation + expansion in price + volume climax = trend continuation signal within an established Stage 2 uptrend, though the extended nature of the move (well above rising 50/150/200-day averages) means chasing here carries more risk than buying the original base breakout did.
Not investment advice — chart study for educational purposes.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in SKMEGGPROD
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Trading Masterclass #1Institutional trading means trading like hedge funds, banks, prop firms, and professional desks. They do not trade based on emotions, random tips, or gambling. They use systems, probabilities, risk control, position sizing, discipline, and psychology.
Retail traders often lose because they focus only on “entry.” Institutions focus on:
Risk Management
Capital Protection
Position Sizing
Probability
Psychology
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