Long
PRAJIND – Technical View (Daily Chart)PRAJIND has been in a prolonged corrective phase since its all-time high, forming a sequence of lower highs while repeatedly giving up previous support levels. Each former support has now turned into a potential resistance, clearly reflecting the dominance of sellers over the past several months.
However, the recent price action is becoming interesting. After finding support near the ₹295–310 demand zone, the stock has staged a sharp recovery and is now consolidating within a symmetrical triangle. The rising trendline from recent lows and the falling trendline from the long-term downtrend are converging, indicating that the stock is approaching a decisive breakout zone.
Bullish Scenario
A decisive breakout above the descending trendline, backed by strong volumes, may signal the end of the corrective phase.
Once the breakout is confirmed, the stock may gradually attempt to reclaim its previous resistance zones:
₹401
₹445
₹537
₹595
₹653
Each of these levels represents a previous support-turned-resistance and may act as interim profit-booking zones.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the rising trendline followed by a breakdown below the ₹340–350 zone would weaken the current recovery.
A decisive close below the major demand zone around ₹295–310 may resume the broader downtrend.
Technical Highlights
Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
Primary Trend: Long-term Downtrend
Current Structure: Base Formation within Consolidation
Major Support: ₹295–310
Immediate Resistance: Descending Trendline
Bias: Neutral with Positive Undertone (Awaiting Breakout Confirmation)
Trading Strategy
The stock is approaching a technical decision point. Rather than anticipating the move, wait for a decisive breakout above the descending trendline with strong volume. A confirmed breakout could mark the beginning of a medium-term trend reversal, while a breakdown below support would invalidate the current bullish setup.
Disclosure : This technical view is based on price action and chart analysis and reflects the prevailing market structure at the time of publication. Market conditions may change without notice. There are no guaranteed returns in the stock market. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and assess their risk profile before making any investment decisions. The Research Analyst and/or clients may have positions in the security discussed. 
Long
XAUUSD 4021 sweep — 4116 is the gate XAUUSD 4021 sweep — 4116 is the gate
That 4,021 low got swept clean. Yeah, that was the move.
Gold flushed hard, took the downside liquidity, then bounced back into 4,057 - 4,096 like sellers suddenly ran out of fuel. That is the part I’m watching.
Main bias is bullish for the short-term recovery.
Not blindly bullish. Don’t twist it. Price still needs to prove it above the FVG zone. But the reaction from 4,021 is not weak. It looks like a sweep, then reclaim, then slow build inside the imbalance area.
Risk-off headlines are also giving gold a reason to stay bid, but I’m not trading the headline alone. Chart first. Always.
The key zone now is 4,057 - 4,096. If gold keeps holding this area, buyers can use it as the base. Above 4,096, the next real gate is 4,116. Break that, and the recovery can stretch toward 4,140 - 4,150.
Trading scenario:
Buy idea only if price keeps holding above 4,057 and reclaims 4,096 with clean candles.
Entry zone: 4,057 - 4,080 after confirmation
Stop loss: below 4,021
TP1: 4,096
TP2: 4,116
TP3: 4,140 - 4,150
No confirmation, no chase. Especially inside this messy FVG box.
If gold loses 4,021 with a strong close, then this recovery idea is dead. Simple. After that, sellers can drag price lower again.
For now, I’m reading this as sweep first, recovery second.
You buying this reclaim or still waiting for 4,116 to break?
Long
Long
Short 
Long
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 09/07/2026Nifty is expected to open with a slightly gap-up bias after yesterday's sharp decline. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and any early pullback should be treated cautiously unless the index reclaims key resistance levels.
The immediate resistance is placed at 23950–24000. If Nifty fails to sustain above this zone, traders can consider short positions with targets of 23850, 23800, and 23750. A decisive breakdown below 23750 will confirm fresh bearish momentum and may extend the decline towards 23650, 23600, and 23550.
On the upside, if Nifty recovers strongly and sustains above 24050, traders can consider long positions with targets of 24150, 24200, and 24250+. The bullish momentum will strengthen only after a sustained move above this resistance zone.
Overall, a slightly gap-up opening is expected, but the index remains under selling pressure. Unless Nifty sustains above 24050 after the initial volatility, traders should prefer selling on rise. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. #BANKNIFTY Intraday PE & CE Levels(09/07/2026)Bank Nifty is expected to open with a gap-down bias after the sharp bearish breakdown seen in the previous session. The index is currently attempting a pullback from the 56550 support zone, but the overall trend remains weak unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
The immediate support is placed at 56550. If Bank Nifty sustains above this level and confirms buying momentum, traders can consider CE positions above 56550 with upside targets of 56750, 56850, and 56950+. However, the recovery will gain further strength only after a decisive move above 56950.
On the downside, the immediate selling zone is 56450–56400. If the index breaks below this range, traders can consider PE positions with targets of 56250, 56150, and 56050. A sustained breakdown below 55950 will confirm fresh bearish momentum and may extend the decline towards 55750, 55650, and 55550.
Overall, a gap-down opening is expected. Traders should avoid aggressive buying unless Bank Nifty sustains above 56550 after the opening volatility. If the index fails to hold support, selling pressure is likely to continue. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. HEROMOTOCO — Falling Wedge Resistance Holds at the 50 EMAOverview
Hero MotoCorp attempted to break above its falling wedge resistance today, touching a high of 4,975 before reversing sharply to close down 2.05% at 4,892.80. Notably, this rejection occurred right at the 50 EMA (4,994.61), which has been tracking closely with the wedge's upper boundary — a double layer of resistance that proved difficult to clear on the first attempt.
Pattern Explanation
The stock has been compressing inside a falling wedge since the December high of 6,388.50, with the upper resistance trendline and the 50 EMA converging in the same zone through recent sessions. This kind of confluence — a structural trendline lining up with a widely-watched moving average — often makes for a tougher resistance to clear cleanly, and today's rejection candle reflects exactly that dynamic. Sellers stepped in decisively at this zone rather than letting price consolidate above it.
Key Levels
Resistance (Wedge Trendline + 50 EMA Confluence): 4,975–5,000
Support (Wedge Lower Boundary): tracking near 4,750–4,800 currently
Prior Swing Support: 4,671.50
Scenarios
If support holds: A pullback that stabilizes above the wedge's rising support line and the recent low near 4,671 keeps the pattern intact, setting up a possible second attempt at the 50 EMA and resistance trendline later.
If support breaks: A sustained close below the wedge's lower boundary would suggest sellers are back in control, with the pattern breaking down rather than resolving bullishly.
Beginner's Lesson
When a trendline and a moving average line up in the same price zone, it often creates a stronger resistance than either would on its own — this is called confluence. A single rejection at such a zone isn't necessarily bearish for the bigger picture, but it does tell you buyers need to work harder to clear it. Watching whether the stock holds its rising support on this pullback will say a lot about whether the next attempt has a better chance.
Conclusion
Hero MotoCorp's rejection at the 50 EMA and wedge resistance keeps the stock range-bound for now. Worth tracking how the pullback behaves relative to the wedge's support line before expecting another test of resistance. As always, wait for confirmation before drawing conclusions.
Not investment advice. For educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 
Long
BITCOIN'S $62,000 BATTLE: BTC Crashes to $50K... or Ignites BTCUSD Weekly Technical Report | Shift Theta Research
Markets rarely ring a bell at the top or bottom—but they always leave footprints. Bitcoin is now standing on one of the most important technical footprints of the entire 2025-2026 cycle.
________________________________________
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has entered a critical decision zone after suffering a sharp correction from its all-time highs near $123,000. The weekly chart reveals that price has now returned to the intersection of multiple high-probability support levels including:
• Major Fibonacci retracement cluster
• Long-term ascending Gann fan support
• Weekly horizontal demand zone
• Psychological support around $62,000
The market is now at an inflection point where buyers and sellers are preparing for the next directional move.
Our view: The long-term bull market structure remains technically alive—but only if Bitcoin successfully defends the current support region.
________________________________________
Market Structure: Healthy Correction or Beginning of a Bear Market?
Bitcoin remains inside a larger secular uptrend despite the recent selloff.
After rallying from below $20,000 to above $120,000, the current decline appears more like a structural correction than a complete trend reversal.
The correction has erased weak speculative positions while bringing price back into institutional accumulation territory.
However, failure to hold current support would significantly weaken the bullish narrative.
________________________________________
Trend Analysis
Long-Term Trend
✅ Bullish
Medium-Term Trend
Neutral to Bearish
Short-Term Momentum
Bearish
The weekly candles continue to print lower highs and lower lows, indicating that short-term sellers remain in control.
Nevertheless, the larger trend has not yet broken.
________________________________________
Moving Average Analysis
20-Week EMA
68,588
Bitcoin is currently trading below the 20-week EMA, showing that short-term momentum has weakened.
Historically, BTC often experiences deeper corrections once this moving average is lost.
________________________________________
50-Week EMA
80,048
The 50-week EMA remains well above current prices.
This level now represents the first major resistance where institutional selling could emerge if Bitcoin attempts a recovery.
________________________________________
Support Analysis
Immediate Support
$61,500 - $62,500
This is currently the most important zone on the chart.
Several technical factors converge here:
• Previous breakout level
• Weekly horizontal support
• Gann Fan support
• Fibonacci confluence
A successful defense could trigger aggressive buying.
________________________________________
Secondary Support
$55,000-$57,000
If current support fails, this becomes the next institutional demand area.
________________________________________
Final Bull Market Support
$49,000-$51,000
Loss of this zone would invalidate much of the current bullish structure.
________________________________________
Resistance Analysis
First Resistance
$68,500-$70,000
This includes the 20-week EMA and recent supply.
Expect heavy selling pressure.
________________________________________
Second Resistance
$80,000
The 50-week EMA.
Breaking above this level would significantly improve market sentiment.
________________________________________
Major Resistance
$92,000-$95,000
Former breakdown region.
This area is likely to attract profit booking.
________________________________________
Gann Fan Analysis
One of the most interesting observations on the chart is Bitcoin's interaction with the long-term Gann Fan.
Price has retraced directly into an important ascending support angle that has historically acted as a launchpad during previous bull phases.
As long as BTC respects this angle, the broader trend remains constructive.
A decisive weekly close below it would increase the probability of a deeper correction.
________________________________________
Fibonacci Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading around the 0.50 retracement zone, one of the most closely watched Fibonacci levels.
Historically, this level often separates:
• Healthy bull-market pullbacks
• Full trend reversals
A sustained move above the 0.382 retracement would indicate buyers are regaining control.
Failure here would expose the deeper 0.618 retracement, often the final line of defense for long-term bulls.
________________________________________
Momentum Indicators
RSI
Weekly RSI has cooled considerably from overbought conditions.
While momentum has weakened, RSI is approaching an area where long-term buyers historically begin accumulating.
No confirmed bullish divergence has formed yet.
________________________________________
MACD
MACD remains below its signal line, indicating bearish momentum still dominates.
However, histogram contraction suggests selling pressure is beginning to slow.
A bullish crossover would provide early confirmation of trend reversal.
________________________________________
Bullish Scenario (Probability: Moderate)
If Bitcoin successfully defends $62,000, the market could stage a relief rally toward:
• $68,500
• $80,000
• $92,000
A weekly close above $80,000 would likely attract fresh institutional buying and restore the long-term bullish trend.
________________________________________
Bearish Scenario (Probability: Moderate to High if $62K Breaks)
Failure to hold $62,000 could accelerate selling toward:
• $57,000
• $50,000
A breakdown below $50,000 would mark a significant deterioration in the long-term technical outlook and could delay the next major bull cycle.
________________________________________
Institutional Perspective
Professional money managers often wait for corrections into major support rather than chasing rallies.
Current price action suggests Bitcoin is entering a zone where long-term investors will closely monitor buyer participation.
The next two to four weekly candles may determine whether this correction becomes an accumulation opportunity—or the start of a broader distribution phase.
________________________________________
Key Levels to Watch
Level Significance
$62,000 Critical weekly support
$68,588 20-Week EMA
$80,048 50-Week EMA
$92,000 Major resistance
$50,000 Last major bull-market support
________________________________________
Shift Theta Research Conclusion
Bitcoin has arrived at one of the most consequential technical zones of the current market cycle. The convergence of Fibonacci retracement, Gann fan support, and historical demand around $62,000 makes this a high-stakes battleground between bulls and bears. While the long-term structure remains intact, the market requires a decisive weekly defense of this level to preserve the broader bullish outlook.
A sustained rebound above $68,500 would strengthen the case for renewed upside toward $80,000 and beyond. Conversely, a confirmed weekly close below $62,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $55,000-$50,000 region before meaningful buying interest re-emerges.
For investors and traders alike, patience is likely to be rewarded. Rather than reacting to short-term volatility, the next few weekly candles should provide the confirmation needed to distinguish between a healthy bull-market retracement and the early stages of a more prolonged downturn.
"The market has reached a point where conviction—not emotion—will determine who captures the next major move."
________________________________________
Disclaimer: This report is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to high market risk. Shift Theta is not responsible for any profit, loss, or trading decisions made based on this report. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
NVDA Daily: Don't Mistake This Bounce for the End of the SelloffJust like I explained in my previous NVDA analysis, I **don't believe the selloff is over.
The recent bounce has done exactly what I was watching for—it respected the bullish Order Block (OB) and reacted from it. But a reaction doesn't automatically signal a trend reversal.
To me, this looks more like price filling resting orders before deciding on its next move.
As long as the broader bearish structure remains intact, I'm treating this rally as a retracement rather than the start of a new uptrend.
My focus is on the bearish Order Block around $208, where I'm expecting sellers to step back into the market. If price rejects that area with confirmation, I'll be looking for a continuation lower, with the $180 OB remaining a key downside objective.
What I'm Watching
* Price has respected the bullish OB and swept sell-side liquidity.
* The current rally appears corrective within the larger bearish structure.
* The $208 bearish Order Block is the area I'm watching for potential rejection.
* A rejection there could open the door for another leg toward the $180 demand/OB.
How I'm Trading It. NFA!! Just From Personal Experience
Fast executions matter if you are looking for a clean setup and one thing, I've found useful is being able to act on these setups without switching between different platforms if not it can be confusing and tiring. At most, miss trade.
Since rNVDA tracks the real market 1:1, I can execute the same analysis directly from my existing crypto trading account instead of waiting to fund or log into a separate brokerage and miss again. When momentum is moving quickly, reducing that extra friction can make a difference.
Short
Short 
Short
Short 
MCX Falling Wedge Recovery Setup📊 MCX: Daily Technical Snapshot – Falling Wedge Recovery Setup
📊 STWP Technical Analysis
________________________________________
MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT | NSE: MCX | DAILY
Closing Price: 2,742.00 (+98.80 | +3.74%)
Core Trend: Downtrend (Swing Structure)
Market State: Recovery Attempt Within Falling Wedge
Price Structure: Price is trading inside a Falling Wedge, a bullish reversal pattern, after forming a Bullish Engulfing near the lower boundary. Buyers have defended support, and the stock is now attempting to challenge the upper boundary of the wedge.
________________________________________
OPERATIONAL PRICE GRID & KEY REFERENCE LEVELS
Model Reference Level: 2,766.00
Hard Invalidation Level: 2,571.80
Structural Risk: 194.20 (7.02%)
Resistance Levels: R1 2,807 | R2 2,872 | R3 2,978
Support Levels: S1 2,636 | S2 2,530 | S3 2,465
Range Structure: Low 2,571.80 | High 2,978.00
Higher Timeframe Observation Zones: 2,872 | 2,978 | 3,100 | 3,180
________________________________________
MOMENTUM, PARTICIPATION & CPR DATA
Volume Profile: 4.93 Million Shares
Volume Character: Strong Relative Participation
RSI: 42.96 (Recovering Momentum Zone)
ADX: 20.18 (Trend Development Phase)
ROC: -3.14%
MACD Status: Negative Momentum Showing Signs of Stabilization
CCI: -155.33 (Recovering from Oversold Zone)
Stochastic Reading: 35.72 (Recovering from Oversold Zone)
Current Bias: WAIT FOR BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION
CPR State: Bullish Zone | CPR Moving Down (Normal)
Today's CPR: Pivot 2,651.55 | Top 2,655.75 | Base 2,647.40
Tomorrow's CPR (Projected): Pivot 2,701.00 | Top 2,721.50 | Base 2,680.50
________________________________________
📚 EDUCATIONAL OBSERVATION
MCX has shown encouraging signs of recovery after forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick near the lower boundary of a Falling Wedge, a chart pattern commonly associated with bullish reversals following a corrective phase. The recent price action suggests that selling pressure is gradually weakening while buyers have started defending lower price levels.
The recent decline briefly pushed prices below nearby support before buyers quickly regained control, creating characteristics of a liquidity sweep (false breakdown). Such behaviour often reflects seller exhaustion, where weak hands exit the market before stronger buying interest emerges. The subsequent bullish engulfing candle reinforces this recovery attempt and highlights improving short-term sentiment.
Several technical observations are currently supporting the developing structure:
Falling Wedge Recovery Setup
Bullish Engulfing Candlestick
Liquidity Sweep / False Breakdown
Strong Bullish Recovery Candle
Bullish VWAP Position
Strong Relative Volume Participation
Buyers Regaining Short-Term Control
Momentum indicators are beginning to stabilise after the recent correction. The RSI at 42.96 remains below the stronger momentum zone but has started recovering, indicating improving buying interest. MACD continues to remain below the zero line, suggesting that the broader corrective trend is still intact, although downside momentum appears to be slowing. The CCI reading of -155.33 reflects a deeply oversold condition from which the stock has begun recovering, while the Stochastic reading of 35.72 also points towards improving momentum after emerging from oversold territory.
The projected Central Pivot Range (CPR) for the next trading session has shifted moderately higher, with the projected Pivot at 2,701.00. While this reflects improving market acceptance of higher prices, the setup continues to favour patience until a clearer directional breakout develops.
The immediate technical focus remains on the upper boundary of the Falling Wedge, which also coincides with the resistance zone between 2,807 and 2,872. A decisive close above this region, supported by stronger-than-average trading volume, would confirm the wedge breakout and significantly improve the probability of a broader bullish reversal. Upon confirmation, the higher-timeframe observation zones near 2,978, 3,100, and 3,180 may become relevant for future market structure analysis.
From a business perspective, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is India's leading commodity derivatives exchange, facilitating trading across precious metals, base metals, energy and agricultural commodities. Continued growth in commodity market participation, increasing institutional activity and expansion of derivative products provide a constructive long-term backdrop for the company.
Support and resistance levels should be viewed as observation zones rather than predictive targets. Chart patterns, candlestick analysis, price action, volume studies, momentum indicators and CPR are educational tools that help market participants understand evolving market structure within a disciplined risk-management framework.
________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided strictly for educational and informational purposes.
This is not financial, investment or trading advice and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of capital.
Past performance, historical observations, chart patterns and technical indicators do not guarantee future results.
Please conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions.
STWP assumes no responsibility or liability for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
Long
Long
SENSEX — Trading Plan | 09 July 2026
📅 Sensex Weekly Expiry Day | 15-Min Chart Analysis | Educational Purpose Only
⚠️ Chart Colour Guide — Must Read Before Proceeding:
🟠 Orange Line/Zone = No Trade Zone / Sideways / Wait & Watch
🟢 Green Line/Zone = Bullish Bias / Long Setup
🔴 Red Line/Zone = Bearish Bias / Short Setup
- - - Dashed Lines = Probable price path — may or may not play out — always wait for confirmation
"When the market decides to fall — it falls fast, hard and without mercy. The only protection is your stop loss and your plan." 📖
🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR 09-JUL-2026 (SENSEX WEEKLY EXPIRY DAY)
text
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance → 77,237 ← Strong Supply Zone
🔴 Opening Resistance → 76,863 ← Key Resistance
🟠 CMP / Reference Close → 76,514.28
🟠 Opening Support/Res Zone → 76,050 – 76,399 ← MAIN ORANGE PIVOT ZONE ⚡
🟢 Last Intraday Support → 75,609 – 75,867 ← KEY GREEN SUPPORT ZONE
🟢 Extended Bear Target → 75,000 – 74,750 ← Extreme Bearish Zone
💡 09-Jul-2026 Sensex Expiry Day Context:
🔵 Tomorrow is Sensex Weekly Expiry — making every level more significant
🔵 Market closed weak at 76,514 after a ~1000-point crash session
🔵 Orange pivot zone 76,050–76,399 is now the most critical battleground
🔵 Expiry day + post-crash session = Maximum volatility expected ⚡
🔵 Option premiums will be elevated due to high IV from yesterday's crash
🔵 Theta decay will be aggressive — CE and PE buyers must be extremely careful
🔵 Gap opening of 300+ points is highly probable given yesterday's crash
🔵 SGX Sensex / Gift Nifty levels at 8:00 AM will be crucial gap indicator
🔵 Position sizing must be reduced significantly for expiry day 🛡️
🚀 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (300+ Points Above Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Above 76,814 (i.e., 76,514 + 300)
📖 Understanding The Gap Up Setup on Sensex Expiry Day:
A Gap Up of 300+ points after yesterday's ~1000-point crash on Sensex Expiry Day is an extremely important and complex scenario. Let's understand why this matters so much:
🔸 A 300+ point gap up would open Sensex directly near the 76,863 Opening Resistance zone (red line on chart)
🔸 This kind of recovery gap after a crash is typically driven by:
→ Positive overnight global markets (US, Europe recovering)
→ SGX Sensex strong overnight
→ Short covering by bears who booked profits yesterday
→ Institutional bottom fishing at lower levels
→ Positive domestic news flow
🔸 BUT — on Expiry Day — this becomes a critical trap zone:
→ Option sellers (who sold CEs yesterday at higher IV) will defend their positions aggressively
→ The 76,863 resistance is a natural supply zone — sellers will emerge here
→ Gap up on expiry after a crash = Classic bull trap setup probability is HIGH
→ However, if sustained — can trigger massive short covering rally
This is the highest complexity scenario for expiry day. 🧠
Patience and confirmation are absolutely non-negotiable here.
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP UP OPENING (300+ Points):
⏳ First 15 Minutes — Strictly No Trade:
After a 300+ point gap up on expiry day following a crash — the opening 15 minutes will be extremely volatile and manipulative. Smart money will test both sides. Wait for the first complete 15-min candle before making any decision.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Gap Up Sustains Above 76,863):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps up 300+ points and sustains above 76,863 (Opening Resistance — Red Line) with a strong 15-min candle close. Volume should be above average. This signals genuine buying and possible trend reversal from yesterday's crash.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 76,900 (confirmed sustain above opening resistance)
🔵 Target 1: 77,050
🔵 Target 2: 77,237 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — Red Line on Chart — major target)
🔵 Target 3: 77,500 (if momentum is exceptional — extended recovery)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 76,760 (back below opening resistance zone = bull trap)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 77,000 CE or 77,200 CE (weekly expiry — same day options)
⚡ Critical expiry day warning: On expiry, sustain above resistance must be very clear
⚡ CE premiums will be elevated after yesterday's crash (high IV) — buy smaller quantity
⚡ Book 60% at T1 on expiry day — don't hold too long, theta kills rapidly
⚡ Trailing SL is essential — use 15-min candle low as trail reference
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Gap Up Fails — Sell the Bounce):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps up 300+ points but fails to sustain above 76,863. Sellers emerge aggressively at the resistance zone. Classic "sell the bounce" after a crash. Shooting star or bearish engulfing on 15-min confirms. This is actually the higher probability scenario on expiry day.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 76,750 (confirmed rejection from opening resistance zone)
🔵 Target 1: 76,514 (gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 2: 76,399 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 3: 76,050 🎯 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone — main target)
🔵 Target 4: 75,867 🎯 (upper boundary of Last Intraday Support — green zone)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 76,900 (above opening resistance = short plan fails)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,500 PE or 76,000 PE on confirmed rejection and fade below 76,750
⚡ "Sell the bounce" on expiry after crash = One of the highest probability setups
⚡ On expiry — PE premiums can multiply very fast if market falls
⚡ Book 50% at T1 (gap fill), 30% at T2, trail remaining 20% for T3/T4
⚡ Move SL to cost once T1 is achieved — protect capital always
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Up — 300+ Points):
Market gaps up 300+ points and oscillates between 76,750 – 76,863 = Dangerous chop zone ⛔
🔵 Both bulls and bears are fighting at the opening resistance
🔵 Expiry day + crash recovery + resistance = Maximum fake moves
🔵 CE buyers will lose if market can't sustain
🔵 PE buyers will lose if market recovers above 76,863
🔵 The only winning move here = Do nothing and observe 🧘
"A 300-point gap up on expiry day after a crash is the market's most convincing lie. It looks bullish but often isn't. Wait for the market to prove itself — don't assume." 🎭
➡️ SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±150 Points of Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: 76,364 – 76,664 (Near 76,514 Close)
📖 Understanding The Flat Opening on Sensex Expiry Day:
A flat opening within 150 points of yesterday's close on Sensex Expiry Day is the most nuanced and educational scenario. Here is why this matters:
🔸 Flat open places Sensex right above or inside the orange pivot zone (76,050–76,399)
🔸 The market is opening in a zone of maximum uncertainty — right after a crash
🔸 On expiry day with flat open — option sellers have maximum advantage
🔸 The Sensex will try to establish direction in the first 30–45 minutes
🔸 Both 76,863 resistance (above) and 76,050–75,867 support (below) are within striking distance
The critical question with flat open on expiry:
Will the market use this expiry day to recover the crash losses or continue the carnage?
The orange zone 76,050–76,399 acts as the dividing line between these two stories.
📋 TRADE PLAN — FLAT OPENING:
⏳ Extended Wait — First 30-45 Minutes on Expiry Day:
Flat open on expiry after crash = Maximum price discovery period needed. Minimum 30 minutes wait before any entry. The opening range (first 30-min high/low) is your reference.
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Long Setup (Flat Open, Recovery Above 76,399):
🔵 Setup: Sensex opens flat near 76,514. Shows early stability and buying interest. Price breaks and sustains convincingly above 76,399 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone) with good volume — indicating that bulls are defending the post-crash levels.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 76,420 (confirmed reclaim of orange zone upper boundary)
🔵 Target 1: 76,650
🔵 Target 2: 76,863 🎯 (Opening Resistance — Red Line — major expiry target)
🔵 Target 3: 77,237 🎯 (Last Intraday Resistance — only if exceptional momentum)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 76,200 (deep inside orange zone = bullish plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,500 CE or 76,700 CE on confirmed breakout above 76,420
⚡ On expiry — ATM and slightly OTM strikes only (within 200–300 points of market)
⚡ Deep OTM CE on expiry after crash = Premium goes to zero — avoid completely ❌
⚡ Book 50% at T1 without fail — expiry theta is ruthless
⚡ After T1, trail remaining position with every 15-min candle close as SL
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Flat Open, Continuation Breakdown):
🔵 Setup: Sensex opens flat but immediately shows weakness. Unable to hold 76,399. Bears take control early — lower highs forming on 15-min chart. Break below 76,050 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone) confirms continuation of yesterday's bearish momentum.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 76,000 (confirmed breakdown below entire orange zone)
🔵 Target 1: 75,867 (upper boundary of Last Intraday Support — Green Zone)
🔵 Target 2: 75,609 🎯 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support — Green Zone)
🔵 Target 3: 75,300 (intermediate bear extension)
🔵 Target 4: 75,000 🎯 (Psychological major support — extreme bearish case)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 76,200 (back inside orange zone = bearish plan fails)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 75,800 PE or 75,500 PE on confirmed breakdown below 76,000
⚡ On expiry day — PE options below current market can give 5-10x returns if market falls fast
⚡ But if market recovers — same PEs can go to near zero in minutes
⚡ This is why position size must be small — maximum 1 lot for this trade
⚡ Book 50% at T1, trail rest — do not be greedy on expiry PE trades
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Flat Open — Expiry Day):
Sensex oscillating between 76,050 – 76,399 after flat open = Full orange zone territory ⛔
🔵 This is the most dangerous zone on Sensex expiry day
🔵 Market is indecisive — could break either way without warning
🔵 Option premium decay (theta) is maximum in this range on expiry
🔵 Both CE and PE buyers are being slowly destroyed by time decay
🔵 The only sensible action = Watch. Learn. Wait for clear breakout. 📺
"On expiry day, the orange zone is not just a no-trade zone — it is a premium destruction zone. Every minute you hold options inside this range costs you money. Respect it completely." ⏳
💡 Flat Open Expiry Day Key Insight:
The 76,050 – 76,399 orange zone is the battleground where bulls and bears will clash most intensely on expiry. Above it = recovery story begins. Below it = crash continues. There is no middle ground on expiry day — the market will choose a side decisively. Your job is to wait for that choice and then join the winner. 🏆
📉 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (300+ Points Below Previous Close)
📍 Expected Opening Range: Below 76,214 (i.e., 76,514 - 300)
📖 Understanding The Gap Down Setup on Sensex Expiry Day:
A Gap Down of 300+ points after yesterday's already massive ~1000-point crash session on Sensex Expiry Day would be an extreme and alarming bearish signal. This would be the second consecutive heavy fall in two sessions.
This scenario directly threatens:
🔸 The orange pivot zone 76,050–76,399 — may open right inside or below it
🔸 The 75,609–75,867 Last Intraday Support Zone (green zone) — could be tested immediately
🔸 Potentially triggering circuit breaker level concerns if fall is extreme
Why does a 300-point gap down on expiry day create special dynamics?
🔸 Short sellers from yesterday will be emboldened — adding more shorts
🔸 Long holders will panic — forced selling increases
🔸 Option writers who sold PEs yesterday will start buying them back — adding fuel to fall
🔸 VIX (India VIX) will spike further — increasing option premiums dramatically
🔸 Liquidity in certain strikes may dry up — wider bid-ask spreads
This is the highest risk scenario — maximum caution required. ⚠️
📋 TRADE PLAN — GAP DOWN OPENING (300+ Points):
⏳ Maximum Patience — First 15-20 Minutes Absolute No Trade:
Gap down 300+ on expiry after crash = Opening will be extremely volatile, emotional and full of false signals. Let the opening candle complete fully. Look for:
✅ Selling climax followed by sharp recovery = Potential bounce
✅ Opening bounce that immediately fades = Continuation sell signal
✅ Flat consolidation after opening = Wait for breakout direction
🟢 BULLISH PLAN — Bounce/Long Setup (Gap Down Holds Support):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps down 300+ points and opens near or inside the 75,609–75,867 Last Intraday Support Zone (green zone on chart). Strong buying emerges — institutional support visible. Bullish reversal candle forms — hammer, morning star, or strong bullish engulfing.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Buy above 75,900 (confirmed bounce above green support zone)
🔵 Target 1: 76,050 (lower boundary of orange pivot zone)
🔵 Target 2: 76,399 🎯 (upper boundary of orange pivot zone — key recovery target)
🔵 Target 3: 76,514 (full gap fill to previous close)
🔵 Target 4: 76,863 🎯 (opening resistance — exceptional recovery scenario)
🔵 Stop Loss: Below 75,560 (below green support zone = bounce failed)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 76,000 CE or 76,200 CE on confirmed bounce above 75,900
⚡ On expiry day bounce from strong support = Very high reward potential
⚡ But this is also very high risk — if support breaks, CE goes to zero fast
⚡ Maximum 1 lot only for this trade — no exceptions
⚡ Book 60% at T1 — on expiry, take profits quickly and decisively
⚡ Trail remaining 40% with tight SL — protect profits aggressively
🔴 BEARISH PLAN — Short Setup (Gap Down Breaks All Support):
🔵 Setup: Sensex gaps down 300+ points and breaks below 75,609 (lower boundary of Last Intraday Support Zone — green zone). No meaningful bounce attempt. Panic selling dominates. This is the most extreme bearish scenario — two consecutive crash days.
🔵 Entry Trigger: Short below 75,550 (confirmed break of entire green support zone)
🔵 Target 1: 75,300
🔵 Target 2: 75,000 🎯 (Major psychological support — round number)
🔵 Target 3: 74,750 🎯 (Extended extreme bear target)
🔵 Target 4: 74,500 (if extreme panic — institutional support expected here)
🔵 Stop Loss: Above 75,700 (back inside green support zone = short plan invalid)
📌 Options Strategy (Educational):
Buy 75,000 PE or 74,500 PE on confirmed breakdown below 75,550
⚡ In extreme breakdown on expiry — PE options can give massive returns (10-20x)
⚡ But the risk is equally extreme — market can reverse 500+ points in minutes
⚡ Absolute maximum = 1 lot, smallest quantity possible
⚡ This trade requires nerves of steel and absolute discipline on SL
⚡ Never average down in this scenario under any circumstances
🟠 NO TRADE ZONE (Gap Down — 300+ Points):
Market gaps down and consolidates between 75,550 – 75,900 = Extreme caution zone ⛔
🔵 Bounce and breakdown are both equally possible
🔵 Expiry day + second crash day + indecision = Maximum premium destruction zone
🔵 Market makers will exploit both CE and PE buyers mercilessly here
🔵 Absolutely no trading in this zone on expiry — the risk-reward is terrible
"When the market opens down 300+ points on expiry day after a crash — the most profitable trade for most retail traders is NO TRADE. Protect your capital. There will always be another day." 💚
💡 Gap Down Emergency Risk Warning for 09-Jul:
🚨 If Sensex gaps down 300+ points on expiry day — do not trade the first 20 minutes under any circumstances. This is when institutional algorithms are establishing positions, option writers are hedging, and retail panic is at maximum. The fake moves in the first 15-20 minutes can trap both bulls and bears. Patience here is literally worth thousands of rupees. 🕐
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT TIPS FOR OPTIONS TRADING
(Special Focus — Sensex Expiry Day After Crash Session)
(This section is critical — please read every point carefully before tomorrow's trading)
📌 Tip 1 — Expiry Day + Post Crash = Reduce Size by 50%:
🔵 Normal trading day → Trade 2 lots → Tomorrow trade 1 lot maximum
🔵 Expiry day after a crash session = Double the risk environment
🔵 High IV + Theta decay + Post-crash volatility = Perfect storm for option buyers
🔵 The only protection is significantly reduced position size 🛡️
📌 Tip 2 — Understand IV Crush on Expiry:
🔵 After yesterday's crash — India VIX will be elevated
🔵 High VIX = Expensive option premiums for both CE and PE
🔵 On expiry day — even if market moves in your direction, IV crush can reduce your profits
🔵 Solution: Buy options only on strong confirmed breakouts — not in anticipation
🔵 The move must be sharp and decisive for options to give good returns on expiry
📌 Tip 3 — The Expiry Day Premium Stop Loss Rule:
🔵 Entry CE/PE at ₹X → Exit compulsorily if premium falls 35-40% from entry
🔵 Example: Bought 76,500 CE at ₹150 → Mandatory exit at ₹90-95
🔵 On expiry — premiums can go from ₹200 to ₹0 in 30 minutes
🔵 There is NO recovery on expiry day — time is always working against you 📉
📌 Tip 4 — Strike Selection on Expiry Day — The Golden Rule:
🔵 Only trade ATM (At The Money) or 1 strike OTM on expiry
🔵 For Sensex at 76,514:
→ ✅ ATM = 76,500 CE/PE
→ ✅ 1 OTM = 76,800 CE or 76,200 PE
→ ❌ Deep OTM = 77,500 CE or 75,000 PE (avoid completely)
🔵 Deep OTM strikes on expiry = Lottery tickets, not trades 🎰
📌 Tip 5 — Time-Based Exit Rule for Expiry:
🔵 After 2:00 PM on expiry — all option buying becomes extremely risky
🔵 Theta decay accelerates massively in the last 90 minutes
🔵 Exit all long option positions by 2:00 PM regardless of profit/loss
🔵 The last 60 minutes of expiry belong to option sellers — not buyers ⏰
📌 Tip 6 — The 1-2-3 Trade Limit Rule for Expiry:
🔵 On expiry day — maximum 3 trades total for the entire session
🔵 After 3 trades (profitable or not) → Screen off. Day done.
🔵 Overtrading on expiry = The fastest way to turn a profitable morning into a losing day
🔵 Discipline in trade frequency is as important as discipline in SL 🎯
📌 Tip 7 — Pre-Market Checklist for 09-Jul (Expiry Day):
🔵 Check SGX Sensex / Gift Nifty at 8:00 AM IST (gap direction)
🔵 Check US Markets closing — Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq direction
🔵 Check Asia Pacific at 9:00 AM — Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi
🔵 Check India VIX level at market open (above 20 = extreme caution)
🔵 Check FII/DII data from 08-Jul on BSE/NSE website
🔵 Note the Gift Nifty premium/discount — proxy for Sensex gap
🔵 Any domestic or global news — RBI, budget, geopolitical events
🔵 This 15-minute homework sets your complete market bias before 9:15 AM 🧭
📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
📊 08-Jul Recap in Brief:
🔴 Sensex crashed approximately ~1,000 points in a single session
🔴 Closed at 76,514.28 — near day's lows
🔴 Massive breakdown of all previous support structures
🔴 Sets up a highly volatile expiry day (09-Jul) with elevated risk
💡 Key learning: Strong trend days — follow the trend, don't fight it ✅
📊 09-Jul Complete Level Reference Table:
Zone Level Type Action
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance 77,237 Red Line Strong Sell/Short
🔴 Opening Resistance 76,863 Red Line Sell/Resistance
🟠 CMP Reference 76,514 Blue Previous Close
🟠 Orange Pivot Zone 76,050 – 76,399 Orange Zone No Trade / Decision
🟢 Last Intraday Support 75,609 – 75,867 Green Zone Buy/Long Zone
🟢 Extended Bear Target 75,000 – 74,750 Green Area Extreme Support
🎯 Overall Bias for 09-Jul-2026 (Sensex Expiry):
📌 Short-term bias: STRONGLY BEARISH (after ~1000-pt crash close)
📌 Recovery possible ONLY IF Sensex reclaims 76,863+ convincingly
📌 Bears in firm control as long as market stays below 76,399
📌 Dashed lines on chart show probable paths:
→ 🟢 Dashed green = Recovery path: Bounce → 76,863 → 77,237
→ 🔴 Dashed red = Continuation path: Break → 75,867 → 75,609 → 75,000
→ 🟠 Dashed orange = Sideways/chop path: Oscillate in orange zone all day
One of these three paths will play out — your job is to identify which one and act accordingly. 🎯
🌟 Final Key Takeaways for Sensex Expiry Day:
🔵 Orange zone 76,050–76,399 = Most critical zone — no trade inside it
🔵 Above orange zone = Look for long toward 76,863 and 77,237
🔵 Below orange zone = Look for short toward 75,609 and 75,000
🔵 Gap opening of 300+ changes dynamics — extra patience needed
🔵 Dashed lines = probable paths only — confirmation mandatory before entry
🔵 Green zones = Strong support — look for bounce confirmation only
🔵 Red lines = Strong resistance — look for rejection confirmation only
🔵 Expiry + post-crash = Half position size, double discipline 🛡️
🔵 Theta decay is your biggest enemy as an option buyer today
🔵 Exit all longs before 2:00 PM — no exceptions on expiry day ⏰
🔵 Capital preservation > Profit hunting — especially on expiry day 💚
"Expiry day after a crash is not the day to be a hero. It is the day to be a professional. Professionals wait, confirm, act with precision and protect their capital above everything else." 💪
"The best traders don't trade every opportunity — they trade only the right opportunities. Tomorrow, the right opportunity will show itself clearly. Your job is to wait for it patiently." 🧘
"Plan the trade. Trade the plan. Respect every level. Protect every rupee." 🔄
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor.
🔴 This post is purely for educational and informational purposes only.
🔴 All levels, scenarios, trade setups and analysis shared here are based entirely on personal technical chart reading and represent absolutely NO buy/sell recommendations of any kind whatsoever.
🔴 Sensex options, futures and equity trading involves substantial financial risk. You can lose your entire invested capital — this risk is multiplied significantly on expiry days and post-crash volatile sessions.
🔴 Past accuracy of any levels or analysis does NOT guarantee future performance under any circumstances.
🔴 The analysis presented is based purely on technical chart reading — fundamental factors, macroeconomic developments, global events and institutional activity can completely override technical levels at any time.
🔴 Gap openings of 300+ points can invalidate pre-planned levels — always re-assess levels in real-time at market open.
🔴 Always consult a SEBI Registered Financial/Investment Advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
🔴 The author holds absolutely no responsibility for any financial gains or losses arising directly or indirectly from the use of this educational content.
Trade Safe. Trade Smart. Trade with a Plan. Protect Your Capital First. Always. 🙏
📊 Chart: S&P BSE Sensex Index | Timeframe: 15-Min | Exchange: BSE | Source: TradingView
📅 Plan Date: 09-July-2026 | Sensex Weekly Expiry Day
🕗 Plan Published: Post Market Close 08-Jul-2026 | 22:52 IST
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