1973 vs 2026: Is Stagflation Repeating?Let’s run an experiment. Read the following text twice: first, focus on the history (before the slash); then, focus on today’s reality (after the slash):
In 1965 / 2022 , the US attempted the impossible: funding the Vietnam War / Ukraine & Israel conflicts , while maintaining the "Great Society" / COVID stimulus & "Green Deal" programs without raising taxes. The result: an explosion in money supply and the first inflation wave.
In 1971 / 2025 , the second blow landed – the end of Bretton Woods / the rise of BRICS+ and de-dollarization . The dollar-gold link was severed, and silver staged a 215% / 325% parabolic jump in less than a year.
Two years later, after the US backed Israel in the Yom Kippur War / Iran escalation , the East hit back with an oil embargo / closure of the Strait of Hormuz . Energy prices quadrupled, the economy locked into stagflation, and gold began its historic ascent.
Oops... The last sentence is a SPOILER. It happened back then, but it's different now, right? Or is it?
Take a look at the chart I’m working on. The blue line is US inflation; the green line is the Gold/SPX ratio. The mathematical precision is frightening:
Inflation:
> 1957 – 1968: Sideways movement with peaks around 4%, followed by a sharp increase. The period from trough to trough is 5 years.
> 2011 – 2021: Sideways movement with peaks around 4%, followed by the current spike. The period from trough to present is exactly 5 years.
GOLD/SPX Ratio:
> 1960 – 1972: Formation of a bottom with 4 touches of the trendline before the massive breakout.
> 2015 – 2025: Identical bottom with 4 touches before the breakout (the fractal is repeating with a phase 2 years shorter).
The Stagflation Thesis
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and resource shocks, the three inflationary peaks of the 70s are no longer a forecast—they are a repetition of history. We are currently at the bottom following the first peak, but with one critical difference: the world is at record-high debt levels today. In this context, stagflation is not just a crisis; it is a mechanism by which debt is devalued at the expense of savings.
You can print dollars, but you cannot print barrels of oil, copper, or nickel.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz is the "short line" (as described by Luke Gromen) that is rewriting the global balance. If energy is life, its scarcity is the economic death of the old model. The parabolic jump in gold and silver is just the beginning of this "liberation" from paper assets.
When the mathematics of debt meets the geopolitics of resources, real assets stop being just an investment—they become a sanctuary. The question isn't whether you believe in $150 or $250 oil, but whether your portfolio will be prepared when these prices become reality. 
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Do or Die // BTCUSD MACROHello Traders,
It's been about a year and a half since my last public crypto call. You can check the linked ideas in this post for my previous macro calls.
No indicators this time.
We are at an inflection point near:
2021 ATH
2022 ATH
Mid 2024 chop
The last time price found this level as support, we saw the run to 125k ATH.
We are currently re-testing this critical level as support.
If price breaks to the downside to 50k, the long thesis is invalidated. BTC would have made a lower swing-low in that case and price will likely either continue to fall or spend a significant time attempting to reclaim 60k.
However, if 60k is treated as support, expect a strong bounce to the upside. This momentum may carry us to previous ATH and beyond. Moonshot targets exist, but previous ATH is a safe partial take profit.
In my opinion, the risk/reward on trade setups that adhere to this thesis are quite strong, offering up to ~6:1.
At this critical time, it is important to monitor price action in the next 1-2 weeks to see how the 60k level is being treated by market participants. If a viable long exists, around now would be the time it reveals itself.
As always, see you at the top! (~January 2027)
Best in all,
dysonring2050 Long 
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BTC - This time it's differentMost analysts are still waiting for the classic Bitcoin blow-off top.
I’m not convinced we’ll get one.
Every cycle rhymes with the previous one, but none are identical. What matters more than narratives is structure, time symmetry and momentum.
On the monthly chart the cycle still shows a near balance in time — roughly 50% expansion vs 50% contraction. That rhythm has appeared repeatedly throughout Bitcoin’s history.
The RSI is still trading inside its long-term channel, as shown on the chart. Previous cycle tops occurred when RSI pushed toward the upper boundary of that channel, entering extreme momentum territory. We are nowhere near that zone yet.
Today’s push higher is interesting, but technically it is happening right into resistance:
• the rim of the reverse cup-and-handle structure
• the upper boundary of the current range
• and the top of the previous cycle
That cluster makes this area structurally important.
If the reverse cup-and-handle resolves lower, the measured move points toward ~45k, which also aligns with the golden ratio Fibonacci zone — a level that often acts as equilibrium during cycle resets.
It would also represent roughly a 63% correction, a fair retracement for a maturing asset class.
What makes this setup interesting is that three independent models converge here:
1️⃣ Time symmetry of the cycle (roughly 50/50 expansion vs contraction), which has so far remained valid and even predicted the previous top with almost monthly accuracy.
2️⃣ RSI macro cycle channel behavior. The channel itself is gradually declining. Instead of a classic blow-off top, this cycle could form a head-and-shoulders structure on the RSI.
3️⃣ Logarithmic growth structure combined with Fibonacci extensions.
When multiple independent models start pointing toward the same area, it’s usually worth paying attention.
The crowd is still waiting for the same parabolic ending as previous cycles.
But markets rarely repeat perfectly.
Cycles don’t copy themselves.
They **rhy Short 
What the Nifty/Gold Ratio is ScreamingHistory is Rhyming: Is 2026 the New March 2020?
What the Nifty/Gold Ratio is Screaming
I’ve been staring at the Nifty/XAUINRG ratio chart lately, and honestly, it’s the only thing keeping my heart rate down while the news headlines are screaming about wars and market crashes.
For those who don’t know, this ratio is simple: you take the Nifty 50 and divide it by the price of 1 gram of gold in India. It’s like a “Value Meter” for the Indian economy. When it’s high, stocks are expensive. When it’s low, stocks are on a clearance sale.
How I’m Reading This Chart
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but man, does it rhyme. I’ve noticed a pattern that seems to act like a magnet:
The “Greed” Zone (4.5 ~ 5.0): When the ratio climbs here, stocks are “overheated.” Everyone is a genius, and gold is forgotten. This is usually when I start tucking some profits into gold.
The “Fear” Zone (2.0 ~ 1.5): This is where it gets interesting. When the ratio drops this low, it means stocks are dirt cheap compared to gold. Most people are too scared to buy stocks here, but the chart says this is where the smart money shifts from gold back into the stock market.
Why March 2020 was the Ultimate Lesson
Look at the image I’ve attached. See that massive dip in early 2020?
“This looked like the end of the world on the news, but on this chart, it was the best time in a decade to buy stocks.”
Back then, the pandemic had everyone selling everything. But the ratio hit that 1.5 ~ 2 level and practically screamed that the “shift” was coming. If you moved into Nifty then, you caught the ride of a lifetime.
The 2026 Situation: War, Tariffs, and the “Fog of War”
Fast forward to today, March 2026. Between the escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and those massive FII sell-offs we saw in February, the “Fear” is back.
Gold is hitting record highs (over ₹1.6 Lakh per 10g!), and the Nifty is feeling the heat. But look at the ratio—it’s sliding back toward that below 2.0 level again.
As a trader, I’m not an expert, but I am curious. Every time the world feels this “unsafe” and the ratio hits this zone, it serves as a guiding signal. While the news makes me want to hide under my bed, this chart makes me want to start shopping for quality stocks.
My Takeaway
I’m not saying the bottom is in today or tomorrow, but I am saying that I’ve learned to trust the ratio more than the news. With the ratio currently hovering near that historical support of 2.0, I’m looking at this market with a lot of curiosity.
While everyone else is running for cover, the ratio is screaming that the “Shift” might be closer than we think.
Disclaimer:
I’m just a trader sharing what I see on my screen. This isn’t financial advice—just a look at the “hidden” logic of the markets. 
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