XAUUSD: Elliott bearish wave developing.Gold is still trading under pressure after failing to hold the recovery structure above the 4,000 area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart is forming a bearish Elliott wave sequence, and price is now moving inside the next downside phase.
The key idea is simple: gold remains weak while price stays below the 3,970–3,980 resistance area, and the lower Elliott wave target is still open.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold moving in a clear lower-high and lower-low structure. After the previous rebound failed near the 4,080 area, price rotated lower and is now trading back around the 3,960 zone.
The current resistance around 3,970–3,980 is important because it sits near the sell wave 5 zone. If buyers cannot reclaim this area, the market may continue following the bearish structure towards the lower support zone.
The downside area around 3,790–3,800 remains the main Elliott wave completion zone on the chart.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,970–3,980: near-term sell wave 5 resistance
◌ 3,930–3,940: wave 4 reaction area
◌ 3,960: current price reaction zone
◌ 3,790–3,800: Elliott 5-wave cycle target
◌ Above 4,000: area where the bearish structure starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bearish 5-wave structure after the corrective recovery ended.
Wave 1 created the first downside move from resistance.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed to reclaim the previous structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger momentum.
Wave 4 may be forming as a small consolidation near the current area.
If resistance continues to hold, wave 5 may extend lower towards the 3,790–3,800 zone.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current reaction as a full bullish reversal yet. The market is still trading below resistance, and the Elliott structure still favors one more downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 3,970–3,980 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 3,970–3,980 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,000 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 3,930
Take profit 2: 3,880
Take profit 3: 3,790–3,800
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,000 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens and the chart may need a new short-term reading.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a bearish Elliott structure. The market has not shown enough strength to confirm a reversal, and the current reaction is happening directly below resistance.
As long as gold stays below the sell wave 5 zone, the cleaner structure remains to the downside.
Gold is still forming a bearish wave sequence. If resistance holds, the final wave may continue towards the lower Elliott target.
Share your view below. 
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Has MCX Found a Temporary Top?MCX has given an incredible rally over the last few years, making it a star performer. However, the monthly chart now suggests that the stock might be entering a well-deserved resting phase. This is not a cause for panic, but rather a normal market cycle where a stock takes a break after a massive run-up.
The Technical Setup
Looking at the chart structure, the stock seems to have completed a classic five-wave upward journey. This move perfectly touched the upper boundary of its rising trend channel and faced resistance.
Right at the peak, we can see a shooting star candlestick pattern, followed by a solid red candle. This combination shows that the buyers are experiencing exhaustion at higher levels, and the sellers are gently stepping in to take control of the immediate trend.
The 19-Month Time Cycle
Many traders wonder if a correction can last long. History shows us that it can. If you look back at the previous major rest period between 2020 and 2022, the stock consolidated for exactly 19 months (578 days).
The current time cycle shows a striking similarity, projecting a quiet or sideways phase of around 576 days. While a year and a half sounds like a long time, in a monthly timeframe, it simply means the stock will likely trade in a broad, choppy range rather than falling in a straight line.
Key Support Levels to Watch
If this normal cooling-off phase continues, the chart points toward two primary mathematical support areas where the stock might find its floor:
The first major support rests around 1,855
The deeper structural support lies near 1,471
These levels align closely with the older, safer base channel, which can act as a strong accumulation zone for long-term investors.
The Invalidation Level
Every technical thesis must have a clear point where the idea no longer works. For this chart, the invalidation zone is strictly 3,480 . If the price reverses and breaks cleanly above this level, this entire cooling-off theory is canceled, signaling that the bulls have extended the rally to new heights.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research and manage your risk carefully. 
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XAUUSD: Weekly ABC Recovery from Buy ZoneGold is starting the new week with a corrective recovery structure after reacting from the lower liquidity area near 3,950–4,000. From Kelly’s view, the current move is developing as an Elliott ABC recovery, but the chart also leaves room for a stronger 5-wave upside scenario if buyers continue to defend the buy zone.
The key idea is simple: gold has already reacted from the lower base, and the next weekly direction depends on whether price can hold above the liquidity retest zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a strong bearish sequence into the lower area, then started forming a recovery from the buy zone around 4,045. Price is now trading near 4,083, above the first liquidity reaction level.
This recovery is still early, but the structure is improving. If gold holds above the 4,045–4,065 area, the market may continue building wave C towards the Fibonacci resistance zone around 4,117–4,125.
Above that, the larger resistance and liquidity zone sits around 4,200–4,202, where Fibonacci 2.618 aligns with the projected upside structure.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,045–4,065: buy zone and liquidity retest area
◌ 4,083: current reaction area
◌ 4,117–4,125: ABC completion / Fibonacci resistance zone
◌ 4,200–4,202: major liquidity zone and Fibonacci 2.618 target
◌ Below 4,045: area where the recovery structure weakens
◌ Below 3,950: area where the bullish recovery setup loses quality
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing an ABC corrective recovery after the previous bearish wave 5 completed near the lower base.
Wave A started from the low and created the first recovery reaction. Wave B corrected back into the buy zone and held above the liquidity base. Wave C may now be developing towards the 4,117–4,125 Fibonacci resistance area.
If wave C ends around this zone and price starts rejecting, the ABC recovery may be complete.
However, there is also a second scenario. If gold breaks above 4,125 with strong acceptance, the recovery may no longer be only a simple ABC correction. In that case, price could develop into a 5-wave bullish sequence, with the next major target around 4,200–4,202 at the Fibonacci 2.618 liquidity zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the 4,045–4,065 buy zone and continue the ABC recovery.
Entry zone: 4,045–4,065 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed reaction low or below 4,030
Take profit 1: 4,117–4,125
Take profit 2: 4,160
Take profit 3: 4,200–4,202 if the move expands into 5 waves
Alternative scenario: if gold fails to hold above 4,045 and breaks below the buy zone, the ABC recovery weakens. In that case, price may return to the lower base and the bullish structure should be reassessed.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a weekly recovery setup, but it still needs confirmation. The ABC structure is active while price holds above the buy zone, and the first important target is the Fibonacci area around 4,117–4,125.
If buyers break through that resistance with strength, the chart may shift from a simple ABC rebound into a stronger 5-wave recovery towards 4,200–4,202.
Gold is recovering from the lower liquidity base. The ABC structure is valid for now, but a clean breakout may open the stronger 5-wave path.
Share your view below. Long 
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XAUUSD: ABC Wave Nears Fibonacci End ZoneGold is recovering from the recent lower base after completing a strong bearish sequence, and price is now developing an Elliott ABC structure. From Kelly’s view, the rebound is technically valid, but the market is approaching the zone where the ABC wave may complete around Fibonacci resistance.
The key idea is simple: gold can still push higher in the short term, but the strongest reaction may appear near the Fibonacci convergence area.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold reacted from the lower accumulation area near 3,960–3,980, then started building a corrective recovery structure. Price is currently holding around the 4,011 buy zone and trying to continue higher from this base.
The nearest resistance sits around 4,044, while the more important reaction zone is the 4,069 area. If buyers can continue defending the buy zone, gold may extend towards the end of the ABC wave near 4,120.
However, this is still a corrective recovery inside a broader bearish environment, so each resistance zone should be treated carefully.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,011: buy zone and short-term support
◌ 4,044: first reaction resistance
◌ 4,069: psychological resistance and sell scalping zone
◌ 4,120: Fibonacci confluence and possible end of ABC wave
◌ 3,980: lower reaction support
◌ Below 3,960: area where the ABC recovery setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming an ABC corrective rebound after the previous bearish wave 5 ended near the lower zone.
Wave A pushed price away from the low and showed the first sign of seller exhaustion.
Wave B corrected back into the buy zone and held above the recent base.
Wave C may now be forming, with the upside path pointing towards 4,069 first and 4,120 as the stronger Fibonacci completion zone.
If wave C reaches the 4,069–4,120 resistance area and starts showing rejection, the ABC recovery may be close to completion.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold above the 4,011 buy zone and continue the ABC recovery.
Entry zone: 4,011–4,027 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed reaction low or below 3,980
Take profit 1: 4,044
Take profit 2: 4,069
Take profit 3: 4,120
Alternative scenario: if gold fails to hold above 4,011 and breaks below 3,980, the ABC structure weakens. In that case, price may retest the lower accumulation zone before forming a new base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a short-term ABC recovery structure, not a confirmed long-term bullish reversal. The buy zone is still holding, but the main focus is how price reacts around Fibonacci resistance.
If gold reaches 4,069–4,120 and sellers appear again, the ABC wave may be close to completion.
Gold is recovering from the lower base.
But structurally, the ABC wave may finish near the Fibonacci convergence zone.
Share your view below. Long 
The Elliott Wave Triangle PlaybookTriangles are a trader’s best friend and worst nightmare.
They are notorious for driving technical analysts crazy. Why? Because while a triangle is forming, it looks exactly the same whether the market is preparing for a massive bullish breakout or setting a deadly trap for buyers.
To have different triangle notations, I have used Canara Bank spot chart on the left panel and the Futures chart on the right panel.
Look at the chart. We have a tightening squeeze with five sub-waves ( a-b-c-d-e ). It looks identical on both sides, but it can play out in two completely opposite ways.
Let’s break down the two faces of the triangle—and exactly how to trade them without guessing the direction.
The Two Faces of the Triangle
Scenario A: The Wave Four Launchpad (Bullish)
In a healthy uptrend, a triangle often shows up as Wave Four .
The Story: The market just made a powerful run ( Wave Three ) and needs to catch its breath. Big players are slowly accumulating shares without pushing the price too high.
The Result: Once the triangle finishes at wave e, the price violently explodes upward to make a brand-new high ( Wave Five ).
Scenario B: The Wave B Bull Trap (Bearish)
Sometimes, the big upward trend is already over ( Wave Five peak), and the market is entering a major correction.
The Story: The market drops hard ( Wave A ). Then, a triangle forms as Wave B . This is a deceptive sideways move designed to trick retail traders into thinking the bull market is back.
The Result: Once wave e finishes, the floor drops out, and the price crashes into a punishing Wave C decline.
The Golden Exclusion Rule
Before you look for a triangle, remember this core rule: Triangles never form in Wave Two. If you see a triangle right after a major trend begins, it is not a Wave Two. This rule alone will save you from countless bad trades.
How to Trade It: Stop Predicting, Start Trapping!
Don't waste your time or money trying to guess if Canara Bank is in Scenario A or Scenario B. Instead, react to the market by setting a trap on both sides.
Here is your mechanical, stress-free execution plan using key structural levels:
The Long Entry (Buying the Breakout)
The Trigger: Wait for the price to break above the wave d peak .
Why it works: Breaking this level proves the sequence of lower highs is broken. This officially triggers the move to Wave Five.
Safety Net (Stop Loss): Place it just below the wave e low .
The Short Entry (Buying the Crash)
The Trigger: Wait for the price to break below the wave b floor .
Why it works: Many traders get faked out by simple trendline breaks. By waiting for the actual wave b structural floor to snap, you confirm the entire triangle has collapsed into Wave C.
Safety Net (Stop Loss): Place it just above the wave e high .
Summary
By letting the market break wave d or wave b levels, you completely eliminate the guessing game.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 
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XAUUSD: Elliott Wave Ending, ABC Buy Setup FormingGold is slowing down after a strong bearish sequence, and price is now consolidating around the lower support area near 3,960–3,985. From Kelly’s view, the main trend is still weak, but the current structure suggests that the bearish Elliott wave may be close to completion and an ABC corrective rebound could begin soon.
The key idea is simple: gold is still in a broader downtrend, so any buy setup should be treated as a short-term recovery trade, not a full trend reversal yet.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has completed a strong decline after breaking below the previous structure. Price is now reacting around the “done wave 5” area, which means sellers may be losing short-term momentum.
The market is currently moving sideways near the lower zone, showing signs of accumulation after the wave 5 decline. This does not mean buyers have full control yet, but it does suggest the downside pressure may be slowing.
The nearest resistance sits around 4,018. If gold can break and hold above this level, the short-term ABC recovery setup becomes much cleaner.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,960–3,985: wave 5 completion and accumulation zone
◌ 4,018: nearest resistance and bullish confirmation level
◌ 4,052–4,060: first recovery target
◌ 4,090–4,120: Fibonacci resistance and possible wave C target
◌ 4,180–4,221: higher resistance if the ABC recovery expands
◌ Below 3,950: area where the buy setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may have completed the final bearish wave 5 near the lower accumulation zone. After a full 5-wave decline, the market often needs a corrective recovery before deciding the next larger direction.
The current structure may develop into an ABC rebound.
Wave A may start if price breaks above 4,018.
Wave B may retest the accumulation zone or hold a higher low.
Wave C may extend towards 4,090–4,120, where Fibonacci resistance and prior structure overlap.
This is why Kelly would not chase the buy too early. The best buy condition appears only when price can hold above the nearest resistance and confirm that buyers are stepping back in.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to break and hold above 4,018 before looking for the ABC recovery.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,018
Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 3,950
Take profit 1: 4,052–4,060
Take profit 2: 4,090–4,120
Take profit 3: 4,180–4,221 if wave C expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold fails to break 4,018 and loses 3,950, the accumulation setup weakens. In that case, the broader bearish trend may continue and the market will need a new base before any recovery structure becomes reliable again.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a short-term ABC buy setup inside a larger bearish market. The wave 5 decline may be close to completion, but confirmation is still important.
The cleanest buy setup comes when price breaks above the nearest resistance and holds there. Until then, the market is only accumulating, not reversing.
Gold may be preparing for a corrective rebound.
But because the main trend is still falling, buy positions should stay short-term and confirmation-based.
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Nifty Analysis from 24 June to 03 July, 2026Wrap up:-
In major time frame, we are in wave y of x of major wave 4. In wave y, wave a has been completed at 24601 and wave b is in progress which is forming a 5-3-5 simple zig zag correction.
In wave b, internal wave a is completed at 23813, wave b is completed at 24189 and now, wave c is in progress.
What I’m Watching Nifty from 24 June to 03 July, 2026🔍
As Wave b target has been achieved, now Nifty is heading towards wave c for the target of 22908-22714. In wave c, wave 1 is completed at 23938, wave 2 at 24013 and wave 3 is in progress.
Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice.
"Don't predict the market. Decode them." Short 
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