Long
XAUUSD H1: Early Week Rebound, But 4,220 Is the Key DecisionXAUUSD H1: Early Week Rebound, But 4,220 Is the Key Decision Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold has ended its three-day losing streak after reaching the lowest area in more than one week. However, the recovery is still not fully convincing because the market remains pressured by a stronger US dollar and the hawkish Fed outlook.
Lower inflation and rate-cut expectations are giving gold some support, but uncertainty around Iran and the Fed’s restrictive stance continue to limit the upside. This means gold may recover in the short term, but the broader trend still needs confirmation before turning bullish again.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,177 after scanning the buy-side liquidity near 4,120. Price is now showing a slight rebound, but the main structure still leans bearish after the strong drop from the upper selling zone.
From an SMC view, the 4,140 - 4,165 area is the short-term OB zone. If price holds above this area, gold may continue the rebound at the beginning of the week.
The key resistance above is 4,215 - 4,220. This is the strong liquidity area and also the first major level buyers need to reclaim. If gold breaks and holds above 4,220, the recovery may extend higher.
However, if price falls back below 4,140, sellers may regain control and gold could retest 4,120 or move lower.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,177
Short-term OB zone: 4,140 - 4,165
Buy-side liquidity: 4,120
Key resistance: 4,215 - 4,220
Upper selling zone: 4,310 - 4,325
Major OB zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Bearish invalidation: Above 4,220
Bullish invalidation: Below 4,120
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Buy Reaction From OB Zone
Entry: 4,140 - 4,165 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,120
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,215 - 4,220
Take Profit 3: 4,310 - 4,325
Entry Conditions
Price holds above the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone.
Buyers show clear bullish rejection.
H1 or lower timeframe forms bullish CHOCH.
Price reclaims 4,177 with strength.
Avoid buying if price breaks and holds below 4,120.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,215 - 4,220 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,165
Take Profit 2: 4,140
Take Profit 3: 4,120
Sell Conditions
Price retests the 4,215 - 4,220 liquidity zone and fails to break higher. If bearish rejection appears from this area, gold may continue the broader bearish structure.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,120 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,145
Take Profit 1: 4,080
Take Profit 2: 4,050
Take Profit 3: 4,020
Overall View
At the beginning of the week, gold may create a short-term rebound from the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone. However, the main trend has not turned bullish yet.
The most important level this week is 4,215 - 4,220. If buyers reclaim this zone, gold may recover toward 4,310 - 4,325. If price rejects from 4,220 or breaks below 4,120, bearish pressure may return quickly.
For now, the better plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,140 - 4,165 or 4,215 - 4,220 instead of chasing price in the middle.
Do you think gold will reclaim 4,220 this week, or will sellers push price back below 4,120?
Long
Gold Rally Faces Resistance as Sellers Eye Another Move LowerGold has recovered from the $4,100 region, but the rebound is approaching a major resistance zone near $4,240–4,250. For now, the move still looks corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.
The macro backdrop remains challenging. Traders are focused on US PMI releases, housing data, and upcoming inflation numbers. Strong economic data could keep the US Dollar supported and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,240 – $4,250
Stop Loss: $4,290
Take Profit 1: $4,150
Take Profit 2: $4,100
Take Profit 3: $4,080
Unless gold breaks and holds above $4,250, rallies may continue to attract selling interest. Short 
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XAUUSD M30: Weekly Bearish Structure Remains Intact, Rebound XAUUSD M30: Weekly Bearish Structure Remains Intact, Rebound Opportunities Still Considered Corrective
Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD is approaching the end of the week under sustained selling pressure after failing to maintain momentum near its recent all-time high. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent inflation concerns globally, gold has struggled to attract strong safe-haven demand.
The primary driver behind this weakness remains the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary stance. Recent economic data continues to support the possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates, keeping US Treasury yields elevated and strengthening the US Dollar Index.
From a broader weekly perspective, gold has spent most of the week trading lower after rejecting major supply zones near the highs. This indicates that institutional profit-taking and liquidity rebalancing are currently outweighing bullish macroeconomic factors.
As long as the market continues to price in a hawkish Fed outlook, gold may remain vulnerable to further downside corrections before any sustainable bullish continuation develops.
Technical Analysis
Weekly Perspective
Looking at the overall weekly structure, gold remains in a long-term bullish trend. However, the current week has developed as a corrective bearish candle following the aggressive rally that pushed prices to record highs.
The rejection from the weekly supply zone around 4,360 - 4,380 suggests that smart money has been taking profits while seeking liquidity below recent lows. This week's price action has created a deeper retracement, but it has not yet invalidated the broader bullish trend on higher timeframes.
For now, the weekly outlook favors continued correction unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels and restore bullish momentum.
H4 Structure
On H4, the market has already shifted into a corrective bearish phase after breaking several internal bullish structures. Lower highs and lower lows continue to form, confirming that sellers remain dominant in the medium-term trend.
The bearish order block around 4,310 - 4,330 remains a significant institutional supply zone. Any rally into this area could attract fresh selling pressure.
M30 Structure
On the M30 timeframe, gold remains clearly bearish after breaking the major BOS level around 4,221.
Price continues to trade below the descending trendline that has guided the decline throughout the week. This trendline remains the most important dynamic resistance currently controlling market direction.
The market is now trading around 4,155 inside the buy-side liquidity zone between 4,140 and 4,160. A minor CHOCH has appeared, suggesting that short-term buyers may attempt a recovery move.
However, from a professional market structure perspective, this rebound should currently be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a trend reversal.
Only a decisive break above 4,221 would invalidate the current bearish structure and signal a stronger bullish recovery.
Market Structure Summary
Weekly Trend: Bullish but correcting
H4 Trend: Bearish correction
M30 Trend: Bearish
Market Bias: Sell rallies until 4,221 is reclaimed
Key Price Zones
Current Price: 4,155
Buy-side Liquidity Zone: 4,140 - 4,160
Short-Term Reaction Level: 4,167
Intraday Resistance: 4,200
Major BOS Resistance: 4,221
Bearish Order Block: 4,310 - 4,330
Weekly Supply Zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Lower Support: 4,120
Extended Support: 4,100
Bearish Invalidation: Above 4,221
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Corrective Buy Toward Resistance
Entry: 4,140 - 4,160 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,120
Take Profit 1: 4,167
Take Profit 2: 4,200
Take Profit 3: 4,221
Entry Conditions
Price must hold above the 4,140 - 4,160 liquidity zone.
A bullish rejection candle, CHOCH, or bullish engulfing pattern should appear on M30 or lower timeframe.
Price should reclaim and hold above 4,167.
Volume and momentum should support the recovery.
This setup remains a counter-trend trade within the broader bearish structure.
Avoid buying if price closes below 4,140.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,200 - 4,221 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,167
Take Profit 2: 4,140
Take Profit 3: 4,120
Sell Conditions
Price rebounds into the resistance zone and fails to break above 4,221.
Bearish rejection candles appear near the descending trendline.
A lower timeframe CHOCH confirms renewed selling pressure.
This remains the higher-probability setup while the weekly correction continues.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,140 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,167
Take Profit 1: 4,120
Take Profit 2: 4,100
Take Profit 3: 4,080
Breakdown Conditions
Price closes decisively below 4,140.
Retest of broken support fails.
Selling volume increases during the retest.
The weekly bearish correction accelerates toward deeper liquidity zones.
Overall View
From a professional multi-timeframe perspective, gold remains in a long-term bullish market but is currently experiencing a significant weekly correction.
The weekly rejection from the 4,360 - 4,380 supply zone has shifted short-term control to sellers. H4 and M30 structures continue to support bearish momentum, while the descending trendline remains intact.
The 4,140 - 4,160 liquidity zone may generate a temporary rebound, but any recovery below 4,221 should still be viewed as a corrective move rather than a genuine bullish reversal.
The most important level remains 4,221. As long as price trades below this BOS resistance and below the descending trendline, the preferred strategy is to sell rallies rather than chase buys.
Only a confirmed break and hold above 4,221 would suggest that the weekly correction has ended and that buyers are preparing for another attempt toward the 4,310 - 4,330 supply zone and eventually the weekly highs around 4,360 - 4,380.
The key question for next week is whether buyers can defend the 4,140 - 4,160 liquidity zone and trigger a recovery toward 4,221, or whether sellers will extend the weekly correction toward 4,120 and lower liquidity targets.
Long 
19th June 2026 - Nifty Report - 24000 conquered yet againNifty Stance: Slightly Bullish
We began this week with a 358-pt gap-up (~1.52%), mostly due to the signing of the peace deal between Iran and the US on 14th Jun. This also meant we broke two resistance levels, i.e., 23793 and 23925, in a single go. Nifty had a really good day on Thursday and tried to take out the 24192 resistance, but we fell short of time. On Friday, we woke up to bad news from Accenture, which had to cut its yearly earnings guidance; this really impacted the Indian IT stocks: Infy (-6.75%), TCS (-3.55%), and HCLTECH (-2.59%). Despite this, the Nifty managed to close above the psychological 24,000 level.
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The faster EMA remains above the slower EMA, and our stance remains bullish. However, the ADX (Average Directional Index) has fallen below 20 (18.56), indicating range-bound trading yet again. If we see a further drop in momentum, then we could even see an EMA crossover to the bearish side.
Important Things to Watch for the Next Week
Data points to watch from a domestic perspective: Infrastructure Output, HSBC PMIs, Deposit Growth, FX reserves and M3 money supply. 26th June is a holiday due to Muharram.
Data points to watch from a global perspective: S&P Services and Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, and US GDP (Q1)
IPO Listing: Clay Craft, Diksha Polymers, Leapfrog Engineering Services, and Liotech Industries on 24th June.
If Nifty moves up, the resistance levels are 24192, 24335, and 24425. If Nifty falls, the support levels are 23925, 23793, and 23357.
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DISCLAIMER
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should read all related documents carefully and consult a certified advisor before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and Enlistment with RAASB/BSE and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in stocks or derivatives. The SEBI RIA license INA000021757 & RA license INH000025045 are for Balachandran RV Long 
