Long
XAUUSD (Monthly)Yes, this is looking slightly bullish right now ,,, but I have doubt
will it be sustain??
will it be capable to hold its bullish strength?
I don't think so because, there is too many geographical incident is happening worldwide like
" Iran-America " War, too many War in Middle - east ,
" Germany " and " Britain " ordered to collect food and other essentials cause of Russia War,
" Russia " is also in war with " Ukraine ", " America " has the largest debt in the world , American soldiers is withdrawing its soldiers, America is mostly out of " NATO " . Also Our Government gave us a signal to " Out of Buying Gold ".
Something very big incident is coming soon.. But We don't know about it.
If Gold is retesting and may be booking profit then why retesting is not healthy , why retesting also feel bearish, and also in 2011 it took about 45 % down then gave a Bullish rally,
but till today it's only 29 % . May be it will hit harder as before , cause too many incidents have around us. and this type of retesting is not good.
So , maybe it will be bearish sooon......I think 
Short
XAUUSD (1M) Yes, this is looking slightly bullish right now ,,, but I have doubt
will it be sustain??
will it be capable to hold its bullish strength?
I don't think so because, there is too many geographical incident is happening worldwide like
"Iran-America" War, too many War in Middle - east,
"Germany" and "Britain" ordered to collect food and other essentials cause of Russia War,
"Russia" is also in war with "Ukraine", "America" has the largest debt in the world , American soldiers is withdrawing its soldiers, America is mostly out of "NATO" . Also Our Government gave us a signal to "Out of Buying Gold".
Something very big incident is coming soon.. But We don't know about it.
If Gold is retesting and may be booking profit then why retesting is not healthy , why retesting also feel bearish, and also in 2011 it took about 45 % down then gave a Bullish rally,
but till today it's only 29 % . May be it will hit harder as before , cause too many incidents have around us. and this type of retesting is not good.
So , maybe it will be bearish sooon......I think Short 
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The Black-Scholes Formula: The Math Behind Every Option
Every option you trade uses a formula in the background that few options traders ever see. It's called Black-Scholes , and its creators got a Nobel Prize for it. In this article, the math and a real-world example are given in an easy-to-understand way.
Why it exists
Before 1973, people priced options subjectively. Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton devised a formula that calculated a theoretical price based on five inputs . This formula is the basis for all options pricing algorithms today.
The five inputs
Stock price, strike price, time to expiration, the risk-free interest rate, and volatility. Four of these inputs can be determined objectively. Volatility is the one factor that is unknowable , and therefore the most important.
The formula
Call price: C = S × N(d1) − K × e^(−rt) × N(d2)
Put price: P = K × e^(−rt) × N(−d2) − S × N(−d1)
Where:
d1 = / (σ × √t)
d2 = d1 − σ × √t
S = stock price, K = strike price, r = risk-free rate, t = time in years, σ = volatility, N() = standard normal probability, e = 2.71828. N(d1) and N(d2) are the probabilities that the option will finish in the money.
A real-world example, worked out
Stock at $100 (S=100), strike $105 (K=105), 30 days to expiry (t=0.0822), rate 5% (r=0.05), volatility 25% (σ=0.25).
d1 = / (0.25 × √0.0822) = −0.0421 / 0.0717 = −0.587
d2 = −0.587 − 0.0717 = −0.659
N(−0.587) ≈ 0.2786, N(−0.659) ≈ 0.2549
C = 100 × 0.2786 − 105 × 0.9959 × 0.2549 = 27.86 − 26.65 = $2.30 per share (about $230 per contract )
Now let's change volatility to 40% , with everything else the same:
d1 = −0.332, d2 = −0.447, N(−0.332) ≈ 0.3699, N(−0.447) ≈ 0.3274
P = K × e0__ = $3.60 per share
Only volatility was changed, and the price increased over 50% . Volatility usually drives the largest jump in price of an option , and is therefore much more important to watch than the price of the underlying asset.
The Black-Scholes PDE
The formula above is the result of Black-Scholes solving the more general equation:
∂V/∂t + ½σ²S² × ∂²V/∂S² + rS × ∂V/∂P = K × e1__
∂V/∂t is time decay . ∂V/∂S is Delta . ∂²V/∂S² is Gamma . The equation is based on one important idea: if you hold the option and the correct amount of the underlying stock, you have a position that doesn't care about the direction of the stock price change. The value of this position grows at the risk-free rate; otherwise, arbitragers would exploit the discrepancy. Every Greek is based on this equation. This is why Delta hedgers must rebalance frequently, as Gamma is non-zero .
Why implied volatility is more important than price
Because volatility is unknowable, its value must be found through another method: take the price of the option, and find the volatility that would make it trade at that price. This is the implied volatility . Implied volatility is what people really talk about when they discuss options.
This is why implied volatility jumps before earnings announcements , even though the stock price remains the same, and drops afterwards, a phenomenon called volatility crush . A trader could make the correct directional guess and still lose money on an option if the implied volatility dropped too drastically .
How it helps you as a trader
Find mispriced options. If the history of volatility for a stock is 25%, but an option is priced at 45%, then there is a real difference between the options and the stock's history.
Avoid volatility traps. One of the most common beginner mistakes is to buy an option for a known future event, not realizing that the volatility will crash afterwards .
Watch out for time decay. Time decay increases as the option reaches expiry, and is not linear in nature.
See why market makers can always give you a price. They use the five inputs above to find a theoretical option value, and hedge their position in the underlying stock immediately.
Real-world example:
hedging. A market maker sells you the call from our example, with Delta ≈ 0.28 (N(d1) = 0.2786). They have to sell you 100 shares at P = K × e2__1, and their losing position on the option is partially offset by the profit from the 28 shares. They continually do this as time and price change, with the Delta changing . The rebalancing needed to keep a Delta neutral position drives many trades unrelated to company news.
Why the formula is wrong
It assumes that volatility is always the same , when it clearly increases and decreases. It assumes that the markets are smooth, when in reality, they are driven by discrete events . Finally, it assumes that the options are European, when most US stock options are American and can be exercised early . Despite this, it is the backbone of all option pricing software today.
My Conclusion
Black-Scholes made options pricing scientific. Understanding it helps you understand an option chain. It is the consensus best guess of the market , and the math behind it has stood the test of time.
Thank You
@VertexQore 
Education
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MAXHEALTH Looks Interesting After This Breakout + Retest SetupMax Healthcare: Breakout Done. Now The Real Test Begins!
I've been watching MAXHEALTH for quite some time, and the recent price action finally got my attention.
The stock has already broken above its long term falling resistance trendline. After the breakout, price moved higher and now we are seeing a pullback towards the breakout area.
For me, this is the important part now 👇
Breakout is already done , now we need to see if buyers can defend the retest.
Price is coming back towards the 1015–953 buying zone .
If this zone holds and buyers step in again, the next move can be interesting.
Above the nearby resistance, the chart opens towards 1080 → 1135 , with a positional target around 1315 .
I'm not expecting a straight line move from here. A healthy retest or some consolidation is completely fine.
The key question is simple, will buyers defend the breakout?
For all important levels, entry zone and invalidation, check the chart above.
What do you think about MAXHEALTH?
Is this retest an opportunity or do you expect more downside first?
If you like this analysis, don't forget to Boost, comment and Follow for more setups.
Disclaimer: This is only my personal technical view for educational purposes. Please do your own research and manage risk before taking any trade or investment decision.
— @TraderRahulPal
SCA Registered Financial Influencer (Dubai, UAE)
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