#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 18/03/2026Nifty is expected to open with a flat opening near the 23550–23570 zone, indicating a neutral start after the recent recovery move. The index is currently trading within a consolidation zone between 23550 and 23450, which will be the key range to watch for today’s session.
If Nifty sustains above the 23550–23600 zone, traders may consider reversal long positions around 23550–23600. A breakout from this zone may push the index toward 23650, 23700, and 23750+ levels.
The 23550–23450 range is acting as a consolidation zone, and a breakout on either side will decide the next directional move. Traders should avoid overtrading within this range and wait for a clear breakout or breakdown.
On the downside, if the index breaks below 23450, traders may consider short positions below this level. A breakdown below 23450 may push the index toward 23350, 23300, and 23250 levels.
Since the market is expected to open flat, traders should avoid aggressive entries at the open and wait for confirmation either above resistance or below support. Maintain strict stop loss and use trailing stop loss with partial profit booking at each target, as volatility may remain within a limited range initially but can expand after a breakout.
Technical Analysis
GOLD H2 17/03 | H4 > 5000, rebalance to break resistanceAfter the previous strong decline, gold is currently holding steady above the H4 trendline and shifting to a balanced state on the H2 frame, fluctuating in the 5000–5050 range. This is a typical accumulation phase as the market absorbs previous selling pressure and awaits a new catalyst to expand the range.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline and the short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
Investment Doubler - Buy Chennaipetro
**CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD (CPCL) — Monthly + Weekly Multi-Timeframe Analysis**
CPCL is currently trading at **₹1,065**, breaking out above the **1.0 Fibonacci extension (₹1,022.85)** on the monthly chart, with **12 days remaining** to confirm the monthly candle close.
**Monthly Timeframe — Fibonacci Breakout:**
- Price bottomed near **₹450** in early 2025 and has since staged a powerful recovery
- Currently breaking out of a highlighted consolidation zone (green box)
- Monthly close above ₹1,022 confirms continuation toward:
- **Tgt 1 — ₹1,178** (1.272 extension)
- **Tgt 2 — ₹1,275** (1.414 extension)
- **Tgt 3 — ₹1,376** (1.618 extension)
**Weekly Timeframe — Cup & Handle Pattern:**
- A large **Cup & Handle formation** is projected on the weekly chart spanning approximately **2028–2030**
- The cup bottom is projected around **₹400**, with the handle forming near **₹750–800**
- A breakout from this pattern would set up a much larger long-term move, confirming the bullish macro structure
**Key Takeaway:**
Two powerful patterns aligning across timeframes — a **near-term Fibonacci breakout** on the monthly, and a **longer-term Cup & Handle** on the weekly — both pointing toward sustained bullish momentum for CPCL over the coming years.
**Bias:** Strongly bullish on both short and long-term timeframes, subject to monthly candle confirmation.
Disclaimer:
The analysis and chart shared here is purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a SEBI-registered research analyst or financial advisor.
The views expressed are based on personal technical analysis and are subject to change without notice. Past performance of any stock is not indicative of future results.
Investing in the stock market involves substantial risk of loss. Please do your own due diligence and consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
I hold no responsibility for any profit or loss arising from the use of this information. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Descending Triangle | Simple Supply and DemandNo view is being expressed on future direction. This is a structural observation based on historical price action only.
A descending triangle pattern has been visible on the daily chart, marked by a series of lower highs forming a declining trendline and a relatively flat base acting as horizontal support.
The upper grey zone — this area previously acted as supply, where price faced repeated selling pressure across multiple touches. Price has since reclaimed this zone from below.
The lower grey zone — a deeper demand cluster that absorbed selling pressure.
The blue moving average provided dynamic context throughout the base formation phase, with price compressing against it before the eventual move.
Charts Price action used are older than 3 months older only .
Bearish Nifty (technical+ geopolitics) nifty doubble topLet's study Nifty, according to the geopolitics around the world right now. And also, according to the technical analysis , if you see according to the geopolitical situation right now in the world, the Iran us war is not going to end soon as of now, it may end at the end of the March or in the early April and it might even prolong, but I don't think it will prolong. For a further, more than April mid, because like there will be a recession in the whole world. And everyone, including Americans, would not want a war that would cause problems for everyone right now, so yeah, it would end around the March and She door April mid atleast and then after that, we could see that the Nifty might go up, but as of now, if you see that Nifty will be going down from here, so currently at the level of 23 580, it is and it might go up and touch. Its 10 day a that is around 23 950 levels, so it might touch it around 23900 to 23850 around this level. It while it might touch its 10 day EA and then make a dooji or make any normal 2 candles around each other in the same range, and then on the plate What day I can expect that it might fall from there? And then after 23850, it might fall down to 23581, and then TO 23300 levels, and then accordingly, and at the end of the March, it might reach its lower, that is 22950, and then after that, it might go up to 22690 levels, so why I'm saying about this 22690 levels is that it is almost a gap filling bottom of the previous gap so up a around this year. Double, I expect the Nifty to go, but if the Nifty falls below this also then keep it in mind that in monthly. If you see the Nifty is forming a double top formation, and once it breaks below 21963, which was the M formation. The double top neckline, then the immediate next support will be of its 50 day e-moving average. And if it break that also, then the next support, if you see it will be off its 100 day e-moving averages. That is around 18000 but then you can ask me that. How can Nifty fall below? Like 19000 level around 18500 or something. Then you have to understand one simple thing that with this escalation of war between Iran and us, it's not just a war between Iran and us, but in the side effect, China is also trying to increasing take action against the Taiwan . And now if you see that in this situation, if if US resources are fully occupied in Iran, then china will take advantage of this situation and try to capture Taiwan, which will be a massive blow for the world economy as Taiwan, is the major semiconductor supplier and to remind you that majority of the run up in the global market recently has been related to the semiconductor and AI, so if this is the, if the mean thing is being heard, then the world will definitely fall for a greater blow. And if you remember that China is the manufacturing hub of the world also, so in that situation, as there will be more and more sanctions, and everything placed on China, it will economic recession for the whole world, not just for China and since India. India is its immediate neighbour and India's imports a lot from China, India will also be affected by it.And since if that case manifests , then you cannot expect where the nifty will go undertoo after forming a double top.
GOLD H2 17/03 | H4 > 5000, REESTABLISH BALANCE TO BREAK THROUGHAfter the previous strong decline, gold is currently holding steady above the H4 trendline and shifting to a balanced state on the H2 frame, fluctuating in the 5000–5050 range. This is a typical accumulation phase as the market absorbs previous selling pressure and awaits a new catalyst to expand the range.
In terms of context, the USD continues to maintain strength following recent economic data, while geopolitical factors keep gold in a tug-of-war state. However, the fact that prices are not continuing to fall sharply indicates that sellers are temporarily pausing, creating conditions for a price compression phase on H2.
On the H2 structure, prices are compressing between the descending trendline + short-term ascending trendline, while reacting around the Fibo 0.382–0.5 and intraday FVG area → this is a typical setup for a strong upcoming breakout.
Main Scenario (H2 breakout)
Break above 5050–5070 → extend the recovery to 5100–5150 (FVG + H2 supply)
Break below 5000 → confirm continuation of the downtrend to 4850 → 4700
Key Levels H2
5100 – 5150: Supply / FVG
5050 – 5070: Upper range
5000: Decision zone
4850 – 4700: Lower liquidity
➡️ H2 is in a state of range compression – breaking one of the two ends will trigger an expansion move.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading for intraday plan updates on 03/17 and important liquidity zones before the breakout.
XAUUSD (Gold) Analysis | Market Outlook | 17th March'2026Gold is holding near a 1-month low, showing weakness despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Elevated energy prices are supporting inflation fears, but expectations of rate stability from the Fed are limiting upside momentum.
Key Levels:
* Resistance: 5035 – 5055 – 5080
* Support: 5000 – 4975 – 4950
Outlook:
* Below 5000 → Bearish continuation toward 4975 / 4950
* Above 5035 → Short-term recovery toward 5055+
* Overall trend: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish.
Gold Bouncing in Bearish Trend — Reversal or Bull Trap?Gold is showing signs of recovery on the H1 timeframe, but the broader structure remains clearly bearish under a descending trendline.
Price is currently reacting from a retest zone near 5008, suggesting buyers are attempting to regain short-term control.
However, in trending markets, rebounds often serve one purpose — to create liquidity before continuation.
Macro Narrative
• The USD remains relatively strong following recent solid economic data.
• Stable yields continue to limit aggressive upside in gold.
• Markets are currently in a post-data consolidation phase, awaiting the next catalyst.
• In this environment, price action is often driven by liquidity and positioning.
News Context
Recent US data continues to reflect a resilient economy, supporting the dollar and keeping pressure on gold.
With no major macro surprise, short-term moves are increasingly driven by technical levels and liquidity zones.
IF–THEN News Scenarios
If USD strength persists:
Gold may struggle to break higher and remain within the bearish structure.
If USD weakens in upcoming sessions:
Gold could extend the recovery toward higher liquidity zones.
Technical Overview
On the H1 chart, gold remains inside a descending trendline, confirming that sellers still control the broader structure.
Price recently bounced from the 5008 retest zone, which acts as short-term support.
If buyers maintain momentum, the next liquidity clusters appear around 5045 → 5073, where short-term reactions may occur.
A stronger push could extend toward the major supply zone near 5122, which aligns with the trendline resistance and may attract sellers again.
However, failure to hold above the retest level may quickly shift momentum back to the downside.
Key Levels
Support / Retest: 5008
Intraday Resistance: 5045
Liquidity Level: 5073
Major Supply Zone: 5122
Market Debate
Is gold building a short-term reversal inside the downtrend or simply forming a bull trap before continuation lower?
USDCHF Pullback Into Demand – Watching for ContinuationUSDCHF recently printed a strong bullish impulse move before facing rejection near the previous liquidity high. After tapping that area, the market started pulling back, which is a common behavior after an aggressive push.
Right now price is approaching a local structure area where demand previously showed some reaction. This level could act as a short-term support zone if buyers decide to defend the structure again.
In many cases, markets move in phases: impulse, correction, and continuation. The current move looks more like a healthy pullback rather than a complete trend shift.
If the demand area holds, the next focus will be on higher liquidity levels where price may attempt to move again. However, if support fails, the market could test lower levels before finding stronger demand.
For now, the key factor to watch is how price behaves around the current structure support.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Middle East conflict rises — Gold not rallying yet?Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are intensifying again.
The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, with new attacks reported across the Persian Gulf targeting energy infrastructure. These developments are raising concerns about disruptions to oil supply, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Despite this escalating risk, gold has barely moved.
Instead, price is consolidating just above the $5020 level, leaving traders questioning whether the market is preparing for a larger move.
Macro Narrative
Several macro forces are currently influencing gold:
• The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, helping gold stabilize after a small decline in the previous session.
• Markets are evaluating emergency oil reserve releases to offset potential supply disruptions.
• President Donald Trump has called for international support to secure the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the seriousness of the situation.
• Rising geopolitical risk usually supports safe-haven demand, but markets are still balancing inflation and energy shock risks.
This combination is keeping gold range-bound for now.
Technical Overview (H2)
From a structural perspective on the H2 chart:
• Gold remains inside a descending trendline, indicating broader downside pressure.
• Price is currently holding above a key support zone near 4979.
• Recent candles show consolidation and liquidity buildup just above support.
• If buyers defend this level, the market could rotate higher toward resistance.
This type of compression often precedes a volatility expansion move.
Key Levels
🟢 Support / Demand: 4979
📊 Structure Pivot: 5044
🔴 Resistance: 5095
🎯 Liquidity Target: 5192
Scenario 1 — Bullish
If buyers defend the support zone:
4979 hold
→ 5044 reclaim
→ 5095 breakout
→ 5192 liquidity
This would align with a potential safe-haven bid returning to the market.
Scenario 2 — Bearish
If support fails:
4979 break
→ downside expansion
→ deeper liquidity sweep
Markets often test liquidity below support before reversing.
Market Debate
Geopolitical tensions are rising.
Oil supply risks are increasing.
Yet gold is still not rallying aggressively.
So the key question now is:
Is gold preparing for a delayed safe-haven rally…
or will the market sweep support first?
Silver Compressing Under Major Resistance – Big Move Incoming?Silver is currently trading inside a tightening structure right below a major trendline resistance. Over the past few sessions, price has been forming higher lows while repeatedly reacting from the same resistance zone.
This type of compression is important because markets rarely stay quiet for long. When price gets squeezed between support and resistance, it often leads to a strong expansion once one side gives way.
For now, the rejection area remains active, but the structure underneath still shows buyers defending higher levels. As long as the support reaction zone holds, the market may attempt another push toward resistance before deciding the next directional move.
If support holds, a bounce toward the upper boundary becomes possible.
If support breaks, the structure opens room for a deeper pullback.
This is a classic compression setup where patience matters more than prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, so always manage your capital and position size carefully.
Bitcoin 15m Structure: Market Deciding Direction Here!When I look at this 15-minute structure, it feels like the market is simply pausing and deciding what to do next. Price recently moved down from the local high and now it is approaching a key demand zone that has acted as support before.
This area matters because many times the market shows its real intention exactly at these levels.
Price is approaching a key demand zone where buyers previously stepped in and pushed the market higher.
A rising support trendline is also aligning with this zone , which makes the area more interesting from a technical perspective.
If the support holds , we may see a reaction move and possible expansion toward the upside targets.
If the support breaks cleanly , the market may continue lower toward the bearish target area.
Right now this is not about predicting the future. It is more about watching how price behaves around this level.
Sometimes the market gives very clear signals, and sometimes it just waits until liquidity builds on both sides before choosing a direction.
For me the logic is simple:
Support holds → bullish expansion.
Support breaks → continuation to the downside.
That is why I see this zone as a decision point for the next move.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk properly before entering any trade.
Analysis By @TraderRahulPal | More analysis & educational content on my profile.
#BANKNIFTY Intraday PE & CE Levels(17/03/2026)Bank Nifty is expected to open with a slightly gap up opening near the 54450–54500 zone, indicating a mild recovery after the recent selling pressure. The index is currently trading near an important resistance level around 54550, which will act as a key breakout level for today’s session.
If Bank Nifty sustains above 54550–54600, traders may consider buying CE options in this zone. A breakout above this level may push the index toward 54750, 54850, and 54950+ levels.
On the upside, a stronger bullish momentum will be confirmed if the index breaks above 55050. A sustained move above 55050 may push Bank Nifty toward 55250, 55350, and 55450 levels.
On the downside, if the index faces rejection near the 54450–54400 resistance zone, traders may consider buying PE options in this range. A rejection from this zone may push the index toward 54250, 54150, and 54050 levels.
Further weakness below 53950 may trigger stronger selling pressure in the market. If Bank Nifty breaks below 53950, traders can consider buying PE options for targets of 53750, 53650, and 53550 levels.
Since the market is opening with a slightly gap up, traders should avoid aggressive buying immediately at the open and wait for confirmation above breakout levels or rejection from resistance. Maintain strict stop loss and use trailing stop loss with partial profit booking at each target as intraday volatility may remain high.
GOLD H4 16/03 | LAST KEY LEVEL BEFORE MID-TERM DROPAfter a sharp decline in the session at the end of the week on 13/03, the market is beginning to reflect global macro risks more clearly. Recent US economic data shows that the economy still maintains a certain resilience, helping the USD retain its strength, while geopolitical factors and military tensions continue to shift defensive capital flows between USD and gold. However, it is noteworthy that gold no longer reacts strongly to supportive news, and each recovery is gradually weakening – a common sign before the market enters a deeper decline phase.
After losing the support structure around 5055, the price quickly slid to the psychological zone of 5000, in line with the previously forecasted decline scenario. Currently, the market is testing the last key level of the large range 5000–5200. This is a crucial liquidity zone, where it will be decided whether gold continues to sideway or officially enters a new mid-term decline.
On the technical structure, the price is moving within the H4 down channel, with the demand zones above continuously being broken. This indicates that bearish pressure still prevails, and the current recoveries are mainly retests of the structure before continuing to decline.
Main Scenario (bearish continuation) If gold loses the 5000 zone, the market could open up deeper declines towards 4850 → 4700, where the next large liquidity zones are concentrated on the mid-term frame.
Technical Recovery Scenario If 5000 holds in the short term, gold may experience a technical recovery up to 5050 → 5100 before the market decides the next direction.
Key Levels to Watch
5200 – 5350: large supply zone
5050 – 5100: structure retest zone
5000: decisive key level
4850 – 4700: next liquidity zone if breakdown
In the current context, 5000 is the last price zone keeping the market within the range. A clear break below this zone could be a confirmation signal that the accumulation phase has ended and the mid-term decline of gold is beginning.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading to update the multi-timeframe gold roadmap, liquidity zones, and market scenarios before the next major breakouts.
Silver at Critical Support – Rising Market Tension Silver is currently testing a major support and demand zone around the 80 level, where the market has reacted strongly in the past. After a sharp bearish move and continuous BOS (Break of Structure), price has reached a strong liquidity area where buyers may attempt to defend the market. This zone is important because it aligns with previous lows and strong volume support.
If silver manages to hold above this support, a corrective recovery could begin with price targeting the 82.00 – 83.50 resistance zone, where previous supply and liquidity are positioned. A bounce from this level would indicate short-term accumulation and potential bullish momentum building.
However, if the 80 support breaks with strong bearish momentum, it could trigger further downside as liquidity below the lows gets taken. In that case, the next possible supports could appear near 79.20, followed by a stronger demand zone around 78.00, where buyers may step in again.
With global geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty increasing, safe-haven metals like silver may experience volatility. This makes the current level a key decision zone where the market could either form a rebound or continue the bearish expansion toward lower liquidity levels.
Gold Approaching Key Demand ZoneGold is currently trading near a major demand and liquidity zone around 5020–5000, where price has entered an external point of interest (EXT POI) after a strong bearish move. The structure on the chart shows a clear Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by consistent lower highs, indicating that sellers currently control the short-term momentum.
This zone is acting as a key decision level. If price fails to hold above 5020 and breaks this support with strong momentum, it could trigger another wave of selling as liquidity below the range gets targeted. In that scenario, the next downside levels to watch would be 5000 as the psychological support, followed by 4985 and potentially 4960, where the next significant demand area may appear.
Technically, the breakdown would confirm continuation of the bearish structure, as the market would be creating new lower lows and expanding the current downtrend. Traders should watch for strong candle closes below the level and increasing volume, which would signal that sellers are pushing the market toward deeper liquidity zones.
From a broader perspective, geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty normally provide long-term support for gold, but in the short term the market can still experience corrections due to U.S. dollar strength, profit taking after previous highs, and shifting risk sentiment. Because of this, gold may temporarily move lower before the larger bullish narrative resumes.
For now, 5020 remains the key trigger level. A clean break below this support could open the path for a move toward 5000 → 4985 → 4960, making this area one of the most important zones to watch for the next directional move in gold.
#BANKNIFTY Intraday PE & CE Levels(16/03/2026)Bank Nifty is expected to open with a gap down opening near the 53750–53800 zone, indicating continued weakness after the recent selling pressure in the market. The index is currently trading near an important support area around 53550, which will act as a crucial level for today’s session.
If Bank Nifty moves toward the 53950–53900 resistance zone and faces rejection, traders may consider buying PE options in this range. A rejection from this zone may push the index toward 53750, 53650, and 53550 levels.
On the downside, if the index breaks below 53450, stronger selling pressure may enter the market. A breakdown below 53450 may push Bank Nifty toward 53250, 53150, and 53050 levels.
However, if Bank Nifty manages to recover and sustain above 54050, traders may consider buying CE options above this breakout level. A move above 54050 may push the index toward 54250, 54350, and 54450+ levels.
Since the market is opening with a gap down, traders should avoid aggressive entries immediately after the open and wait for confirmation either above resistance or below support levels. Maintain strict stop loss and use trailing stop loss with partial profit booking at each target, as intraday volatility may remain high.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 16/03/2026Nifty is expected to open with a gap down opening near the 23150–23170 zone, indicating continued weakness after the recent downward trend in the market. The index is currently trading close to an important support level around 23050, which will act as a crucial level for today’s session.
If Nifty holds the 23050–23100 support zone and shows signs of buying interest, traders may consider reversal long positions around 23050–23100. A bounce from this support area may push the index toward 23150, 23200, and 23250+ levels.
However, if the index moves toward the 23250–23200 resistance zone and faces rejection, traders may consider short positions in that area. A rejection from this resistance band may push the index toward 23150, 23100, and 23050 levels.
Further weakness below 23000 may trigger stronger selling pressure in the market. If Nifty breaks below 23000, traders can consider short positions for targets of 22850, 22800, and 22750 levels.
Since the market is opening with a gap down, traders should avoid aggressive selling immediately at the open and wait for confirmation either below support or after rejection near resistance. Maintain strict stop loss and use trailing stop loss with partial profit booking at each target, as intraday volatility may remain high during the session.
NIFTY Breakdown Continues | Every Bounce Sold | 23K Gap ZoneNIFTY is in a strong lower high – lower low structure across the daily and intraday timeframe.
Every bounce into resistance is being sold aggressively, confirming bearish control.
Price is now approaching a major gap demand zone near 23,100 – 22,800, which could act as the next reaction area.
Until the structure changes, the market remains sell on rise.
Analysis :
NIFTY has entered a clear distribution phase, where price is breaking supports sequentially while pullbacks remain weak.
On the daily timeframe, multiple key levels have failed:
25,372
24,890
24,305
23,697
This type of structure typically indicates institutional selling rather than random volatility.
On the 1H timeframe, the market respected a descending trendline and formed consistent lower highs, with rejection visible at every resistance zone.
Currently price is moving toward the gap support zone around 23,100 – 22,800. This area could attract buyers for a short-term bounce.
However, unless NIFTY reclaims 23,700 – 24,300, the broader structure remains bearish.
Trading approach:
Focus on sell-on-rise setups near resistance zones rather than chasing breakdowns.
Gold Testing H4 Demand BreakdownMarket Structure
On the 4H timeframe, gold has moved into a short-term bearish structure after failing to sustain recent highs and forming lower highs. Price is now approaching the H4 demand zone, which previously acted as strong support.
Key Level in Focus
The H4 demand region near 5000 is currently under test. This level previously generated strong buying interest.
Possible Scenarios
If price breaks below the H4 demand zone, the market could extend lower toward the next demand area near 4850, where liquidity may exist.
If buyers defend the demand zone, a short-term rebound could occur.
Outlook
The reaction around the H4 demand zone will likely determine the next directional move.
Oil May Spike Monday —Is Gold Preparing for a Deeper Liquidity? Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating again, and markets are already preparing for potential volatility at the start of next week.
Oil could open sharply higher on Monday if tensions continue to threaten shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
But interestingly, gold has not reacted as a classic safe-haven asset.
Instead, the metal is starting to show downside pressure.
Why?
Macro Narrative
Several macro forces may be weighing on gold right now:
• Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions are pushing oil prices higher and increasing energy-market volatility.
• Rising oil prices can revive inflation concerns, potentially supporting higher yields.
• Stronger yields and USD often pressure gold in the short term.
• Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Trust holdings declined by 4.29 tons on March 13, signaling potential institutional outflows.
Even during geopolitical stress, gold can temporarily fall if markets rotate toward USD liquidity or rate-expectation repricing.
Technical Overview (H4)
From a structural perspective on the H4 chart:
• Price previously formed a bullish structure with BOS and CHOCH.
• Momentum then shifted after a sharp rejection from the recent high.
• Gold has now broken short-term support near 5046, signaling bearish pressure.
• The next key liquidity area sits around 4992, followed by a deeper demand zone.
This suggests the market may first sweep liquidity below support before any larger recovery move.
Key Levels
🔴 Resistance / Structure: 5046
🟡 Support 1: 4992
🎯 Major Liquidity Zone: 4858
Scenario 1 — Bearish
If selling pressure continues:
5046 rejection
→ 4992 liquidity sweep
→ 4858 demand zone
This would represent a larger liquidity grab before stabilization.
Scenario 2 — Bullish
If buyers reclaim the broken structure:
5046 reclaim
→ short squeeze
→ recovery toward recent highs
But until resistance is reclaimed, downside pressure may remain dominant.
Market Debate
Geopolitical tensions usually support gold.
But right now we’re seeing oil rising while gold weakens.
So the real question is:
Is gold preparing for a liquidity sweep toward 4858…
or will safe-haven demand return next week?
Share your view below 👇






















