Education
XAUUSD — Bullish Channel Holds Above Buy Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is still reacting to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while price continues to hold inside the rising channel.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,142 and still respecting the bullish channel structure. The main buy order trendline zone is around 4,141 - 4,143. If price holds this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend and push gold toward the liquidity zone at 4,144, then the mid-channel resistance around 4,145 - 4,146. A stronger breakout above this area may open the way toward the main target around 4,152.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,142
Main buy zone: 4,141 - 4,143
Short-term support: 4,140
Liquidity resistance: 4,144
Mid-channel resistance: 4,145 - 4,146
Main target: 4,152
Invalidation: below 4,140
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,141 - 4,143
Stop Loss: 4,140
Take Profit 1: 4,144
Take Profit 2: 4,145 - 4,146
Take Profit 3: 4,152
Buy Condition
Wait for gold to retest the 4,141 - 4,143 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above the trendline keeps the bullish setup valid. If price breaks above 4,144, upside momentum becomes stronger toward 4,145 - 4,146 and 4,152. If price breaks and holds below 4,140, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
XAUUSD remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel and holds above the buy order trendline zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,141 - 4,143, then look for continuation toward 4,144, 4,146, and 4,152.
Do you share the same bullish view on gold, or are you waiting for confirmation above the liquidity zone first?
Short
MASON XAUUSD – Bullish Pullback Before Mid-Term Rally
XAUUSD is trading around 4,123 after recovering from the short-term correction zone. Price is still holding above the main uptrend trendline, while the current pullback is moving around the Fibonacci reaction area.
The priority view remains bullish in the medium term, as long as gold continues to hold above the buy order zone and the rising trendline support.
Technical View
Gold is still moving inside a bullish recovery structure. The higher low formation from the previous support area shows that buyers are still defending the market, even though price is currently correcting below the short-term descending trendline.
The most important point on this chart is the uptrend trendline. Price has respected this trendline several times, which means the broader bullish structure remains valid while gold stays above it.
The 4,101–4,106 area is the main buy order zone. This zone is important because it aligns with the Fibonacci correction area, the rising trendline support, and the previous reaction zone. If gold pulls back into this area and holds, it may confirm another higher low before the next bullish leg.
Short term, price may still face resistance around 4,138 and 4,159. The 4,159 area is marked as a sell order zone, so some rejection or consolidation may appear there first. However, if gold breaks and holds above 4,159, the bullish structure may open a stronger move toward the 4,203 resistance.
Ichimoku also supports the idea that the market is trying to recover. Price has moved back near the Ichimoku structure, and if buyers can keep price above the cloud support, the next medium-term bullish continuation will become more convincing.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,123
Buy order zone: 4,101–4,106
Trendline support: 4,095–4,106
Short-term resistance: 4,138
Sell order reaction zone: 4,159
Major resistance: 4,203
Ichimoku support area: 4,067–4,101
Invalidation: below 4,067
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,101–4,106
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low formation, or price holding above the uptrend trendline and Fibonacci support area.
SL: below 4,067
TP1: 4,138
TP2: 4,159
TP3: 4,203
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks above 4,159 directly, wait for a retest of this zone as support before looking for buy continuation toward 4,203. A clean hold above 4,159 would confirm stronger bullish momentum for the medium-term move.
Sell View
Sell is not the priority while price stays above the uptrend trendline and the 4,101–4,106 buy order zone. A short-term sell reaction may appear around 4,159, but it should only be treated as a correction unless gold breaks below 4,067.
Final View
Overall, gold remains in a bullish structure. The current movement looks more like a Fibonacci correction before continuation rather than a full bearish reversal. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to hold the 4,101–4,106 buy zone, then follow the next bullish leg toward 4,138, 4,159, and potentially 4,203.
Will gold respect the Fibonacci buy zone and start the next bullish leg, or retest the trendline support first?
Long 
XAUUSD: Rebound to 4,193 May Be Just a Short-Term Bull TrapXAUUSD is holding above the short-term uptrend line near 4,130, leaving room for a potential rebound before sellers truly step back in. However, a strong supply zone lies overhead at 4,193–4,210, coinciding with a resistance area that has previously triggered price reversals.
With US yields remaining high and expectations of continued Fed tightening weighing on gold, the current rally lacks the basis to confirm a sustainable uptrend. The most likely scenario is a bounce from 4,130 to test the 4,193 zone, followed by profit-taking pressure.
Suggested Strategy:
Entry: Sell on rejection near 4,190–4,200
TP: 4,130
SL: Above 4,220 Short 
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 10/07/2026Nifty is expected to witness a flat opening with price likely to open around yesterday's closing range. The index is trading near an important support zone, indicating that the opening move could remain range-bound until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.
The immediate support is placed at 23950–23900. If Nifty slips below this zone, traders can consider short positions with downside targets of 23850, 23800, and 23750. A sustained breakdown below 23750 will confirm fresh bearish momentum and may extend the decline further.
On the upside, if Nifty sustains above 24050–24100, traders can consider long positions with targets of 24150, 24200, and 24250+. A decisive move above this resistance zone will indicate a stronger recovery and improve the short-term bullish outlook.
Overall, a flat opening is expected. The index is consolidating near a key support level, so traders should wait for confirmation before initiating fresh positions. A breakout above 24050 favors bullish momentum, while a breakdown below 23950 may trigger another round of selling. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. #BANKNIFTY Intraday PE & CE Levels(10/07/2026)Bank Nifty is expected to witness a flat opening with price likely to remain around yesterday's closing zone. The index has recovered from lower levels but is still trading below major resistance, indicating that traders should wait for confirmation before taking aggressive positions.
The immediate support is placed at 57450–57400. If Bank Nifty slips below this zone, traders can consider PE positions with downside targets of 57250, 57150, and 57050. A decisive breakdown below 56950 will strengthen the bearish trend and may extend the fall towards 56750, 56650, and 56550.
On the upside, if Bank Nifty sustains above 57550, traders can consider CE positions with targets of 57750, 57850, and 57950. A stronger bullish breakout above 58050 will confirm fresh buying momentum and may push the index towards 58250, 58350, and 58450.
Overall, a flat opening is expected. The index is trading in a recovery phase but remains below important resistance levels. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above 57550 for long positions or a breakdown below 57450 for fresh shorts. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. AZAD Ascending Triangle Breakout & 52-Week High📊 Azad Engineering: Daily Technical Snapshot – Ascending Triangle Breakout & 52-Week High
📊 STWP Technical Analysis
________________________________________
MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT | NSE: AZAD
Closing Price: ₹2,476.10 (+₹246.70 | +11.07%)
Core Trend: Strong Uptrend
Market State: Confirmed Breakout in Progress
Price Structure: Price has broken out of an Ascending Triangle after forming a series of higher lows against a declining resistance trendline. The breakout is accompanied by exceptional volume and a strong bullish Marubozu candle, signalling strong buying conviction.
________________________________________
OPERATIONAL PRICE GRID & KEY REFERENCE LEVELS
Model Reference Level: ₹2,491.50
Hard Invalidation Level: ₹2,191.15
Structural Risk: ₹300.35 (12.06%)
Resistance Levels: R1 ₹2,565.07 | R2 ₹2,654.03 | R3 ₹2,816.57
Support Levels: S1 ₹2,313.57 | S2 ₹2,151.03 | S3 ₹2,062.07
Range Structure: Low ₹2,191.15 | High ₹2,816.57
Higher Timeframe Observation Zones: ₹2,565 | ₹2,654 | ₹2,817
________________________________________
MOMENTUM, PARTICIPATION & CPR DATA
Volume Profile: 2.47 Million Shares
Volume Character: Extremely High Relative Participation
RSI: 71.88 (Strong Momentum Zone)
ADX: 21.59 (Trend Development Phase)
ROC: +13.38%
MACD Status: Strong Positive Momentum Structure
CCI: +258.87 (Extended Bullish Momentum)
Stochastic: 97.11 (Extended Momentum Zone)
Current Bias: BUY ON PULLBACKS
CPR State: Bullish Zone | Wide Projected CPR
Today's CPR: Pivot ₹2,257.75 | Top ₹2,243.55 | Base ₹2,271.90
Tomorrow's CPR (Projected): Pivot ₹2,402.55 | Top ₹2,439.30 | Base ₹2,365.75
________________________________________
📚 EDUCATIONAL OBSERVATION
Azad Engineering has delivered a decisive bullish breakout by moving above an Ascending Triangle, a continuation pattern that often reflects sustained accumulation before trend expansion.
The breakout is supported by an exceptionally strong Bullish Marubozu candle, indicating buyers remained in control throughout the trading session with very little selling pressure.
The breakout is further strengthened by exceptionally high trading volume, suggesting broad market participation and increasing conviction behind the move.
The stock has also registered a 52-week breakout, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing uptrend and indicating expanding institutional interest.
Several technical factors are currently aligned in support of the bullish structure.
Momentum indicators continue to remain firmly supportive. The RSI at 71.88 reflects powerful bullish momentum, although it also indicates that the stock has entered an extended momentum zone where short-term volatility may increase. The ROC of +13.38% highlights strong price acceleration, while MACD remains firmly positive. CCI at +258.87 and the Stochastic reading of 97.11 confirm aggressive upside momentum, suggesting that while the trend remains strong, brief consolidations or pullbacks should be considered a normal part of the price cycle. The projected Central Pivot Range (CPR) for the next trading session has shifted sharply higher, with the projected Pivot at ₹2,402.55. A rising and wide CPR generally reflects improving market acceptance of higher prices and often supports trend continuation when accompanied by strong participation. The immediate technical focus remains on the resistance cluster between ₹2,565 and ₹2,654. Sustained trading above these levels could strengthen the existing bullish structure and bring the higher-timeframe observation zone near ₹2,817 into focus. On the downside, ₹2,314 remains the first important support, while the structural invalidation level is positioned at ₹2,191.15. From a business perspective, Azad Engineering manufactures highly engineered precision components for the aerospace, defence, energy and oil & gas sectors. Its focus on high-value engineering products, increasing global customer base and expanding manufacturing capabilities provide a constructive long-term business outlook. Support and resistance levels should be viewed as observation zones rather than predictive targets. Chart patterns, price action, volume analysis, momentum indicators and CPR are educational tools intended to help market participants understand evolving market structure within a disciplined risk-management framework.
________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided strictly for educational and informational purposes.
This is not financial, investment or trading advice and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of capital.
Past performance, historical observations, chart patterns and technical indicators do not guarantee future results.
Please conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions.
STWP assumes no responsibility or liability for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information. 
Long
Order Blocks, Hidden Channels and the Base BreakoutsThis post is educational and observational in nature based on historical price action. It is not a forecast or a trading recommendation.
The Bullish Order Block
This is where the story gets interesting. The market fell in three consecutive red candles. The first, then the second, and then the third, which looked like the strongest continuation of selling pressure. But instead of extending the fall, that third candle reversed sharply, closing as a bullish candle that engulfed the range of all three prior red candles combined.
That sudden shift, from what looked like accelerating weakness to a powerful reversal, is what defines a bullish order block. The bottom of that entire sequence marks a major shift in market intent. It tells you that the last wave of aggressive selling was actually being absorbed by buyers the whole time. Whenever price returns to this zone in the future, it is likely to find support, since this is the origin point of the move that followed.
Hidden Parallel Channels
This is a concept I have developed through years of chart reading, and it has become something of a personal signature in how I read breakouts. Hidden channels are small, easily overlooked parallel structures that form directly around a breakout candle or breakout zone. They do not announce themselves, and most traders never notice them sitting there.
When a hidden channel exists around a breakout area, it significantly reduces the reliability of that breakout. Price may appear to break free, pull in buyers, and then get pulled right back inside the channel, turning what looked like a clean breakout into a fakeout.
The Bigger Framework
This is the core principle I follow. Never take a breakout at an all time high. Never take a horizontal breakout in isolation. Always look for a base breakout, meaning a breakout that originates from a demand zone or order block, since that is where genuine accumulation has occurred. And even then, always check for hidden parallel channels around that breakout area, because their presence alone can be enough to turn a high probability base breakout into a low probability fakeout.
Long
EURUSD — Bullish Channel Holding Above Buy Zone
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD is still reacting to USD momentum and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while price continues to hold inside the rising channel.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, EURUSD is trading around 1.1426 and still respecting the bullish channel structure. The key buy order trendline zone is around 1.1418 - 1.1426. If price holds this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend and push price toward the liquidity zone at 1.1448, then the mid-channel resistance around 1.1458. A stronger breakout above this area may open the way toward the main target at 1.1526.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 1.1426
Main buy zone: 1.1418 - 1.1426
Short-term support: 1.1400
Liquidity resistance: 1.1448
Mid-channel resistance: 1.1458
Main target: 1.1526
Invalidation: below 1.1400
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 1.1418 - 1.1426
Stop Loss: 1.1400
Take Profit 1: 1.1448
Take Profit 2: 1.1458
Take Profit 3: 1.1526
Buy Condition
Wait for price to retest the 1.1418 - 1.1426 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above this trendline area keeps the bullish setup valid. If price breaks above 1.1448, upside momentum becomes stronger toward 1.1458 and 1.1526. If price breaks and holds below 1.1400, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
EURUSD remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel and holds above the buy order trendline zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 1.1418 - 1.1426, then look for continuation toward 1.1448, 1.1458, and 1.1526.
Do you share the same bullish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for confirmation above 1.1448 first?
XAUUSD — Bullish Setup Holding Above Buy Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is still reacting to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while buyers continue to defend the recovery trend.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,100 and holding above the rising trendline. The key buy order zone at 4,087 - 4,092 is acting as the main value area. If price holds this zone, the bullish structure can continue toward the day high at 4,118, then the liquidity area around 4,134. A stronger breakout may open the way toward 4,168 - 4,180.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,100
Buy zone: 4,087 - 4,092
Short-term support: 4,054
Day high: 4,118
Liquidity target: 4,134
Main target: 4,168 - 4,180
Invalidation: below 4,054
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,087 - 4,092
Stop Loss: 4,054
Take Profit 1: 4,118
Take Profit 2: 4,134
Take Profit 3: 4,168 - 4,180
Buy Condition
Wait for price to retest 4,087 - 4,092 and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above this zone keeps the bullish setup valid. If price breaks above 4,118, upside momentum becomes stronger. If price breaks and holds below 4,054, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
XAUUSD remains bullish while price holds above the rising trendline and the 4,087 - 4,092 buy zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation from the value area, then look for continuation toward 4,118, 4,134, and 4,168 - 4,180.
Do you share the same bullish view on gold, or are you waiting for confirmation above the day high?
Long 
Layered Structures: Multi patterns formations Explained The Ascending Parallel Channel
Marked by the dotted lines, this is a rising channel — two parallel trendlines, both sloping upward, containing price action between them. It reflects a steady, structured uptrend where price oscillates between a rising support line and a rising resistance line.
The Symmetrical Triangle Within It
Inside this channel, a symmetrical triangle has formed — converging highs and lows compressing into a tighter range. What stands out here is its location: this triangle consolidated near the upper half of the channel, not near the base.
Why Location Matters
This is the core lesson of this chart. The same pattern can behave very differently depending on where it forms inside a larger structure:
1) When consolidation happens near the bottom of a channel, a breakout from there is often referred to as a base breakout — these tend to be the cleaner, more reliable setups to observe, since price is breaking out from a zone of accumulated support.
2) When consolidation happens near the top of a channel, a breakout from there is more of a horizontal top breakout — these are generally less favorable for trading and are better suited for observation only.
The Bigger Picture
This chart is a reminder that multiple patterns often exist within each other, and recognizing not just the pattern but where it sits inside the broader structure is what separates surface-level pattern reading from a deeper understanding of price behavior.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Please conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
XAUUSD — Corrective Recovery After Rejecting $4,022 Low
Gold is trading around $4,062 after rejecting the lower area near $4,022. The market failed to continue the immediate downside move, so today gold may first create a corrective recovery before deciding the next larger direction.
From an SMC perspective, gold has already swept the lower liquidity near $4,022 and reacted from the FVG buy zone around $4,044–$4,060. This reaction shows that sellers may be losing short-term momentum, but the overall structure is not fully bullish yet. Price still needs to reclaim the upper FVG areas before a stronger recovery can be confirmed.
The main plan for today is to watch how gold reacts after the rejection from $4,022. If price holds above the FVG buy zone and forms bullish confirmation, gold may correct higher toward the middle FVG area first, then the FVG sell zone around $4,135–$4,141. That upper zone remains important because sellers may defend the structure there.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds above the FVG buy zone around $4,044–$4,060 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,044–$4,060
SL: below $4,022
TP1: $4,090
TP2: $4,110–$4,115
TP3: $4,135–$4,141
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above the middle FVG area and retests it as support, the corrective recovery can continue toward the upper sell zone.
Entry: above $4,115 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,080
TP1: $4,135–$4,141
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,202 weekly high
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold reaches the FVG sell zone around $4,135–$4,141 and shows clear bearish rejection.
Entry: $4,135–$4,141 after rejection
SL: above $4,160
TP1: $4,090
TP2: $4,044–$4,060
TP3: $4,022
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold fails to hold above $4,022 and breaks the low cleanly, the correction view becomes invalid and sell-side liquidity may become the next target.
Entry: below $4,022 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,060
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $3,980
TP3: $3,960 sell-side liquidity
Key levels
Current price area: $4,062
FVG buy zone: $4,044–$4,060
Rejected low: $4,022
Middle FVG reaction zone: $4,090–$4,115
FVG sell zone: $4,135–$4,141
Short-term resistance: $4,160
Weekly high liquidity: $4,202
Sell-side liquidity: $3,960
Bullish correction confirmation: clean break above $4,115
Stronger bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,141
Bearish continuation confirmation: clean break below $4,022
My current view is that gold may correct higher today after rejecting the decline at $4,022. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid selling low after the sweep and wait for either a buy confirmation around $4,044–$4,060 or a clearer sell reaction from $4,135–$4,141. If the $4,022 low breaks cleanly, the downside path toward $3,960 becomes active again.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 09/07/2026Nifty is expected to open with a slightly gap-up bias after yesterday's sharp decline. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and any early pullback should be treated cautiously unless the index reclaims key resistance levels.
The immediate resistance is placed at 23950–24000. If Nifty fails to sustain above this zone, traders can consider short positions with targets of 23850, 23800, and 23750. A decisive breakdown below 23750 will confirm fresh bearish momentum and may extend the decline towards 23650, 23600, and 23550.
On the upside, if Nifty recovers strongly and sustains above 24050, traders can consider long positions with targets of 24150, 24200, and 24250+. The bullish momentum will strengthen only after a sustained move above this resistance zone.
Overall, a slightly gap-up opening is expected, but the index remains under selling pressure. Unless Nifty sustains above 24050 after the initial volatility, traders should prefer selling on rise. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. #BANKNIFTY Intraday PE & CE Levels(09/07/2026)Bank Nifty is expected to open with a gap-down bias after the sharp bearish breakdown seen in the previous session. The index is currently attempting a pullback from the 56550 support zone, but the overall trend remains weak unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
The immediate support is placed at 56550. If Bank Nifty sustains above this level and confirms buying momentum, traders can consider CE positions above 56550 with upside targets of 56750, 56850, and 56950+. However, the recovery will gain further strength only after a decisive move above 56950.
On the downside, the immediate selling zone is 56450–56400. If the index breaks below this range, traders can consider PE positions with targets of 56250, 56150, and 56050. A sustained breakdown below 55950 will confirm fresh bearish momentum and may extend the decline towards 55750, 55650, and 55550.
Overall, a gap-down opening is expected. Traders should avoid aggressive buying unless Bank Nifty sustains above 56550 after the opening volatility. If the index fails to hold support, selling pressure is likely to continue. Follow strict stop-losses and book profits gradually at each target level. MASON XAUUSD – Short-Term Sell Bias Below Ichimoku
XAUUSD is trading around 4,125 after failing to show a clear bullish continuation. Price is still under the Ichimoku resistance area, and the buying pressure looks weak around the current recovery zone.
The priority view remains sell with the short-term trend, especially if gold retests the sell order liquidity zone near the descending trendline and Fibonacci area.
Technical View
Gold is currently moving below the Ichimoku structure, which shows that buyers have not fully regained control. The cloud and Ichimoku lines above price are acting as dynamic resistance, so any recovery should still be treated carefully.
The recent bounce from 4,096 shows that buyers reacted from support, but the move is not strong enough to confirm a clean bullish reversal. Price is still below the trendline resistance, and the structure remains corrective.
The 4,135–4,145 area is the key sell order liquidity zone on the chart. This zone is important because it aligns with the descending trendline, Fibonacci reaction area, and short-term Ichimoku resistance. If gold reaches this area and rejects, it may confirm another lower high before continuation lower.
The 4,096 level is the nearest support. If price breaks below this area, bearish pressure may continue toward the Fibonacci 50 reaction zone around 4,070–4,080.
The deeper downside target is around 4,035–4,045, which is marked as the next target zone on the chart. This area becomes more likely if gold loses 4,096 and fails to recover above the sell zone.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,125
Sell order liquidity zone: 4,135–4,145
Ichimoku resistance area: 4,151–4,156
Nearest support: 4,096
Fibonacci 50 reaction zone: 4,070–4,080
Downside target: 4,035–4,045
Major resistance: 4,221
Invalidation: above 4,156
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,135–4,145
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed breakout above the trendline, or price staying below the Ichimoku resistance area.
SL: above 4,156
TP1: 4,096
TP2: 4,070–4,080
TP3: 4,035–4,045
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,096 directly, wait for a retest of this level as resistance before looking for sell continuation toward 4,070 and 4,035.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the Ichimoku structure and descending trendline. A short-term buy reaction may appear near 4,070–4,080, but it needs clear bullish confirmation first.
Final View
Overall, gold has not confirmed a strong bullish reversal yet. Price is still under Ichimoku pressure, and the cleaner plan is to watch for sell confirmation around 4,135–4,145. If this zone rejects, the next downside focus remains 4,096, 4,070, and 4,035.
Will gold reject from the trendline and Ichimoku zone, or break above 4,156 to weaken the short-term sell view?
Short 
MCX Falling Wedge Recovery Setup📊 MCX: Daily Technical Snapshot – Falling Wedge Recovery Setup
📊 STWP Technical Analysis
________________________________________
MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT | NSE: MCX | DAILY
Closing Price: 2,742.00 (+98.80 | +3.74%)
Core Trend: Downtrend (Swing Structure)
Market State: Recovery Attempt Within Falling Wedge
Price Structure: Price is trading inside a Falling Wedge, a bullish reversal pattern, after forming a Bullish Engulfing near the lower boundary. Buyers have defended support, and the stock is now attempting to challenge the upper boundary of the wedge.
________________________________________
OPERATIONAL PRICE GRID & KEY REFERENCE LEVELS
Model Reference Level: 2,766.00
Hard Invalidation Level: 2,571.80
Structural Risk: 194.20 (7.02%)
Resistance Levels: R1 2,807 | R2 2,872 | R3 2,978
Support Levels: S1 2,636 | S2 2,530 | S3 2,465
Range Structure: Low 2,571.80 | High 2,978.00
Higher Timeframe Observation Zones: 2,872 | 2,978 | 3,100 | 3,180
________________________________________
MOMENTUM, PARTICIPATION & CPR DATA
Volume Profile: 4.93 Million Shares
Volume Character: Strong Relative Participation
RSI: 42.96 (Recovering Momentum Zone)
ADX: 20.18 (Trend Development Phase)
ROC: -3.14%
MACD Status: Negative Momentum Showing Signs of Stabilization
CCI: -155.33 (Recovering from Oversold Zone)
Stochastic Reading: 35.72 (Recovering from Oversold Zone)
Current Bias: WAIT FOR BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION
CPR State: Bullish Zone | CPR Moving Down (Normal)
Today's CPR: Pivot 2,651.55 | Top 2,655.75 | Base 2,647.40
Tomorrow's CPR (Projected): Pivot 2,701.00 | Top 2,721.50 | Base 2,680.50
________________________________________
📚 EDUCATIONAL OBSERVATION
MCX has shown encouraging signs of recovery after forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick near the lower boundary of a Falling Wedge, a chart pattern commonly associated with bullish reversals following a corrective phase. The recent price action suggests that selling pressure is gradually weakening while buyers have started defending lower price levels.
The recent decline briefly pushed prices below nearby support before buyers quickly regained control, creating characteristics of a liquidity sweep (false breakdown). Such behaviour often reflects seller exhaustion, where weak hands exit the market before stronger buying interest emerges. The subsequent bullish engulfing candle reinforces this recovery attempt and highlights improving short-term sentiment.
Several technical observations are currently supporting the developing structure:
Falling Wedge Recovery Setup
Bullish Engulfing Candlestick
Liquidity Sweep / False Breakdown
Strong Bullish Recovery Candle
Bullish VWAP Position
Strong Relative Volume Participation
Buyers Regaining Short-Term Control
Momentum indicators are beginning to stabilise after the recent correction. The RSI at 42.96 remains below the stronger momentum zone but has started recovering, indicating improving buying interest. MACD continues to remain below the zero line, suggesting that the broader corrective trend is still intact, although downside momentum appears to be slowing. The CCI reading of -155.33 reflects a deeply oversold condition from which the stock has begun recovering, while the Stochastic reading of 35.72 also points towards improving momentum after emerging from oversold territory.
The projected Central Pivot Range (CPR) for the next trading session has shifted moderately higher, with the projected Pivot at 2,701.00. While this reflects improving market acceptance of higher prices, the setup continues to favour patience until a clearer directional breakout develops.
The immediate technical focus remains on the upper boundary of the Falling Wedge, which also coincides with the resistance zone between 2,807 and 2,872. A decisive close above this region, supported by stronger-than-average trading volume, would confirm the wedge breakout and significantly improve the probability of a broader bullish reversal. Upon confirmation, the higher-timeframe observation zones near 2,978, 3,100, and 3,180 may become relevant for future market structure analysis.
From a business perspective, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is India's leading commodity derivatives exchange, facilitating trading across precious metals, base metals, energy and agricultural commodities. Continued growth in commodity market participation, increasing institutional activity and expansion of derivative products provide a constructive long-term backdrop for the company.
Support and resistance levels should be viewed as observation zones rather than predictive targets. Chart patterns, candlestick analysis, price action, volume studies, momentum indicators and CPR are educational tools that help market participants understand evolving market structure within a disciplined risk-management framework.
________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided strictly for educational and informational purposes.
This is not financial, investment or trading advice and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of capital.
Past performance, historical observations, chart patterns and technical indicators do not guarantee future results.
Please conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions.
STWP assumes no responsibility or liability for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
Long
Education
XAUUSD — Waiting Sell From EMA Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the market is still moving with short-term bearish pressure, so any recovery should be treated as a pullback unless price can reclaim the upper resistance zone.
The better plan is to wait for price to return to a clear sell value zone instead of chasing the move after a strong drop.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,053 after reacting strongly from the 0.382 Fibonacci area near 4,041. This reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend the short-term support, but the overall structure is still not bullish yet.
Price remains inside a descending channel, and the EMA structure is still acting as dynamic resistance above the current price. The recent bounce looks more like a corrective recovery inside a bearish trend rather than a full reversal.
The main sell zone is around 4,094 - 4,101. This area aligns with the previous support turned resistance, Fibonacci reaction zone, descending trendline pressure, and EMA value area. If price recovers into this zone and rejects, sellers may continue to push gold lower.
The downside target remains around 4,003 first, followed by the psychological Fibonacci target zone near 3,990 - 3,988.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,053
Fibonacci reaction support: 4,041
Main sell zone: 4,094 - 4,101
Upper resistance: 4,135
Short-term downside level: 4,003
Main Fibonacci target: 3,990 - 3,988
Invalidation area: above 4,135
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,094 - 4,101
Stop Loss: 4,135
Take Profit 1: 4,041
Take Profit 2: 4,003
Take Profit 3: 3,990 - 3,988
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,094 - 4,101 sell zone. This is the key value area because it combines Fibonacci structure, EMA resistance, and the descending channel reaction zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this area, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below 4,101.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 4,041, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,003, followed by the Fibonacci psychological target around 3,990 - 3,988.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: above 4,135 after breakout confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,101
Take Profit 1: 4,160
Take Profit 2: 4,180
Take Profit 3: 4,200
Buy Condition
This is not the main view. A buy setup should only be considered if gold breaks above 4,135 and holds above the descending structure with strong confirmation.
If price cannot break and hold above 4,135, the bearish setup remains the priority.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,094 - 4,101.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell aggressively at the low without a pullback.
A break below 4,041 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,135, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the EMA resistance structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,094 - 4,101, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,041, 4,003, and 3,990 - 3,988.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone first?
Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Trendline Continues to Cap RecoveryFollowing a rebound in early July, XAUUSD is showing signs of weakness, repeatedly failing to break above the bearish trendline extending from mid-June. The $4,140–$4,150 zone remains a key resistance area where selling pressure has repeatedly halted bullish recovery attempts.
Fundamentals also favor the sellers. The US dollar remains strong as the market awaits the FOMC minutes, while elevated US bond yields diminish gold's appeal. Consequently, current rebounds appear primarily technical in nature rather than signaling the start of a new uptrend.
On the H4 chart, the price remains below the bearish trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating that the prevailing trend remains unchanged. If XAUUSD faces continued rejection around the $4,147 level, selling pressure is likely to intensify, paving the way for a decline toward the $3,959 support zone.
Entry: Sell upon signs of rejection around $4,140–$4,147.
TP: $3,959.
SL: Above $4,175. Short 
XAUUSD — FVG Fill Before Bullish Continuation
Gold is trading around $4,089 after pulling back from the short-term FVG sell zone at $4,132–$4,137. The current move is now filling the lower FVG area, which is the main liquidity zone where buyers may start defending the bullish structure again.
From an SMC perspective, the larger short-term structure has already shifted bullish after the previous CHOCH and BOS from the lower base. The current decline does not look like a full bearish reversal yet. It looks more like price is filling the imbalance and testing liquidity before attempting another move with the main recovery trend.
The key area to watch is the FVG buy zone around $4,079–$4,100. Price has already moved into this zone, so the next reaction is important. If gold holds this area and forms bullish rejection, the market may rotate higher again toward $4,132–$4,137 first, then $4,160 and the weekly high around $4,203.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds inside the FVG buy zone around $4,079–$4,100 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,079–$4,100
SL: below $4,057
TP1: $4,132–$4,137
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,203
TP4: $4,220
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold sweeps the sell-side liquidity near $4,057 and quickly reclaims back above the FVG zone, this can create a stronger liquidity-trap buy setup.
Entry: after reclaim above $4,079–$4,100
SL: below the sweep low
TP1: $4,132–$4,137
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,203
Buy setup 3
Condition:
If gold reacts from the current FVG zone and breaks back above $4,137, bullish continuation remains valid after a breakout retest.
Entry: above $4,137 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,100
TP1: $4,160
TP2: $4,203
TP3: $4,220
Sell scalping setup
Condition:
Selling is not the main priority. A sell scalp is only valid if gold retests the $4,132–$4,137 FVG sell zone and shows clear bearish rejection before buyers confirm continuation.
Entry: $4,132–$4,137 after rejection
SL: above $4,160
TP1: $4,100
TP2: $4,079
TP3: $4,057
Key levels
Current price area: $4,089
Main FVG buy zone: $4,079–$4,100
Sell-side liquidity: $4,057
FVG sell zone: $4,132–$4,137
Short-term resistance: $4,160
Weekly high liquidity: $4,203
Next bullish liquidity area: $4,220
Bullish continuation confirmation: clean break above $4,137
Stronger bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,160
Bullish invalidation: clean 2H close below $4,057
My current view is that gold is filling FVG liquidity before attempting another bullish continuation. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid selling low inside the FVG area and wait for confirmation around $4,079–$4,100. If buyers defend this zone, gold can recover toward $4,132, $4,160 and potentially the weekly high around $4,203.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
XAUUSD: Watch This Level Before You Jump In!📊 Market Context & Structure
XAUUSD is currently trading at a massive technical crossroads. After a strong expansion earlier this month, the price retraced downward but aggressively front-ran the major high-timeframe discount arrays. It found strong buying pressure right around the 4,096 level, reversing hard just above the unmitigated FVG (Fair Value Gap) and the 4-Hour POI (Point of Interest).
The fact that institutions stepped in early to buy the dip without letting price fully mitigate those lower structural targets displays strong underlying bullish intent. However, we have now arrived at the immediate decision zone.
🔍 The 1-Hour POI Battleground
Price has rallied straight into the 1-Hour POI (~Around 4,140 Zone). This is our critical pivot level for the session. Before putting on any major position size, we need to observe how the lower timeframes (LTF) react right here.
We have two distinct paths laid out on the chart:
The Bearish Rejection Path : If the 1-Hour POI (~Around 4,140 Zone) holds as solid supply, expect sellers to take control. A clear rejection here will likely result in a downward move.
The Bullish Expansion Path : If buyers display strong displacement and break cleanly above 4,140, this zone flips from supply to demand. A successful retest of this newly formed demand will clear the path for a major push upwards.
🎯 Ultimate Targets: If the bullish structure confirms, the market is highly likely to draw toward the rest-period buy-side liquidity targets marked at the xxx swing highs (4,180 and 4,200).
⚠️ Fundamental Catalyst: June FOMC Meeting Minutes Today
Do not forget the macro driver! Today at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its June policy meeting.
Why it matters: Markets came away from the June meeting viewing the Fed's stance as inherently hawkish. If the minutes heavily confirm that multiple policymakers are pushing for interest-rate hikes later this year, the U.S. Dollar will strengthen, likely triggering a sharp rejection at our 1-Hour POI.
Conversely, if the minutes show signs of internal policy disagreement or economic concerns behind closed doors, it could act as the exact fuel needed to break 4,145 and rocket toward the 4,200 liquidity pool.
🛠️ Execution Plan
Conservative Traders: Avoid entering positions directly inside the 1-Hour POI immediately before the FOMC release. Wait for the post-news volatility to clear, look for a 5m/15m Change of Character (CHoCH), and trade the clear structural breakout or rejection.
Risk Management: If you managed to catch the long move from the initial ~4,096 floor, this 1-Hour POI resistance is a prime spot to lock in partial profits and move your stop-loss to break-even ahead of the high-impact news.
What do you think? Will the FOMC minutes spark a deeper correction into the 4-Hour POI, or are we flying straight to 4,200? Drop your thoughts and setups in the comments below! 👇
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Bull Trap at 24500 [Analysis for 08.07.2026: Wednesday]Probable Scenario Analysis of Nifty 50 for the 08th of July, 2026. The day is Wednesday.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no observable setup for bullish trades. Be bullish only if the price sustains above the level of 24500. The probable bullish targets above 24500 would be - 24550 and 24600.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Stay bearish if the price remains below the level of 24400. The probable bearish targets below the level of 24400 would be - 24350, 24300, and 24250. The price would receive good support at 24250, as an unfilled gap at 24271 would be filled. Next, if the price breaks down below 24250, then the probable bearish targets would be - 24200 and 24150. There is another unfilled gap at 24167.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (24500 - 24400).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (24500 - 24300).
Here, 24400 is the median of ROC. The median works like a sentiment. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment.
● Event
This week (06th to 10th July), there is one high-impact event (the U.S. FOMC minutes). The event is on Wednesday, 08th of July. Thus, today is the high-impact day. FOMC meeting is at 11:30 PM IST (night). Our markets will be closed. Also, tomorrow is the SENSEX weekly expiry.
● Intraday Bias
Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price. If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
